Demographic dividend

Without a skilled, educated and healthy human resource the country will be unable to reap the dividends of its unique demography

Demographic dividend


P

akistan ranks among the countries where the yearly population growth is one of the highest in the world. In the neighbouring economies the population growth rate is less than half.

With 65 percent of the population under the age of 35, Pakistan is a very young nation. In most developed economies, meanwhile, the population is ageing. About 4 million people have been added every year for decades. We are thus adding four million job seekers every year. However, new job opportunities are almost non-existent.

More than 60 percent of the workforce entering the job market lacks skills needed in the services and manufacturing sectors. Many potential investors have been reluctant to upgrade their processes because the country lacks skilled human resources needed for the new jobs.

The demographic advantage of a large, young workforce which was once seen as an opportunity to move forward has turned into a security threat. The unemployed youth are fodder for criminal and terrorist masterminds. It is unfortunate that even some university graduates are noting finding work.

According to an estimate, more than 50 percent of the educated youth fail to get a job of their choice. This partly because that they do not have the skills needed in the job market. Skill training was often not part of their curricula. Moreover, most university graduates desire a white collar job. Many consider blue collar jobs beneath their dignity.

Among our Asian neighbours, China enjoyed a similar demographic advantage for a considerable time. Its population contributed to its GDP growth. The East Asian miracle was possible in the 20th Century by engaging the entire employable workforce to raise the quality of life and per capita incomes. India and Bangladesh have empowered their youth with skills needed in the job market. Now the population in China and the Far East is ageing. However, the basic structure of the economy has been shaped for sustainable growth.

By enhancing the capabilities of our young human resource we can provide for the need for workers in the ageing nations besides accelerating growth in Pakistan. The unemployment rate in Pakistan, according to the federal finance minister, is 6.8 percent. However, almost 80 percent of the workers are employed in the informal sector and lack social protection. Most of these workers lack not only quality education but also marketable skills.

Lack of quality education also lowers one’s chances of acquiring modern skills. A UN report released about a decade ago revealed that among the lowest quintile, girls attend school for only 1.1 year in Pakistan while boys attend school for 3.8 years. In the quintile above the lowest, the schooling period for girls is 2.3 years and for boys 5 years. The UN survey further revealed that in the 3rd quintile girls attend school for 4.4 years and boys 6.4 years. In the fourth quintile of population girls’ attendance in schools is 6.4 years and boys’ 7.3 years. In the richest quintile, average attendance of girls in schools is 8.8 years and for boys 9.1 years.

The situation has further deteriorated over the last ten years. More than three million children of school-going age have never enrolled in schools. This adequately explains the ever-increasing inequalities in the country as well as the reason for absence of skills in most of the human resource. Pakistan is the only country in the region where inequality has increased over the last decade.

Without a skilled, educated and healthy human resource we will be unable to reap the dividend of our unique demography. On top of this, the unemployment rate among educated youth is very high. It is unfortunate that due to lack of proper skills quality formal employment is rare in Pakistan. Moreover, the opportunity to enter regular jobs is highly unequal among social groups and across provinces.

We need a paradigm shift in our education policy. The university graduates are now finding it hard to get a job. This phenomenon is not Pakistan-specific. In some developed economies the youth are now skipping college to attend vocational schools and attain market-based skills. The planners in Pakistan must ensure quality compulsory education up to higher secondary level and set aside funds for market-based vocational training institutes.

According to Mckinsey, young people in the US are increasingly forgoing college to attend vocational schools where they can be paid to receive training while at work. Although blue-collar jobs can be rewarding and pay well, they are often associated with the bias that these are “dirty jobs,” the workers say.

Advancements in technology, coupled with generous salaries, are prompting more people in the US to consider careers in trades such as welding. As college tuition rates rise, community colleges with vocational programmes are enrolling increasing numbers of students, while enrollment is declining for traditional four-year universities. Younger people now believe that blue-collar work is better for job security than white-collar work, as per a 2023 survey of 1,000 high school and college-aged Americans.


The writer is a senior economic reporter

Demographic dividend