he annihilation of mango orchards spanning thousands of acres to accommodate commercial and residential estates in Multan and its environs portends a bleak future. This devastation continues unabated, disregarding the fact that trees and forests alone can serve as efficient carbon sinks and mitigate global warming exacerbated by unsustainable urban growth and greenhouse gas emissions.

Most people in the subcontinent have a special fondness for mangoes. Many grow up with a mango tree in the house or the neighbourhood. The huge shade extending from the lawn to the veranda and into the neighbours’ house evokes memories filled with fun, frolic and endless joy.

Watching the fruit turn yellow is an exhilaration. The temptation to have more of the fragrant, luscious fruit plagues everyone like a never-ending desire. Giants of Urdu literature Ghalib, Amir Khusro, Akbar Allahabadi and Allama Iqbal celebrated the fruit. Khusro described it as fakhr-i-gulshan (pride of the garden). He said: Sakal ban phool rahi sarson, ambva phootay, tesu phulay.

The once-lush landscape of Multan, and its environs, is facing imminent doom. The sweet scent of ripe mangoes has given way to concrete and dust, leaving a lingering sense of loss and foreboding.

The city’s population has surged from approximately 540,000 in 1981 to over 2 million in 2021, fuelling a significant demand for housing and the expansion of road networks, transportation infrastructure and utilities. Concrete structures appear to be the new reality of Multan and its surrounding cities and towns.

The traditional edifices and green spaces in the Old City area and outskirts of Multan city have been supplanted by high-rise buildings and narrow streets. The city suburbs like Bosan and Shah Rukn-i-Alam are left with a profusion of housing societies.

Urban planners say that most buildings have been designed in ignorance of heat mitigation principles. The concrete buildings and pavements reflect the atmospheric heat, triggering the urban heat island and canyon effects due to the lumping together of buildings in narrow and cluttered streets, leaving little room for air circulation to effectively cool the region.

While Multan has always been characterised as a warm city, temperatures have now become unbearably high, breaking long-held records. Scientists and environmental experts attribute this to the interplay of climate change and large concrete structures. Urbanisation alone can raise temperatures by 1-3 degrees C.

Dr Rehman says that out of 44,000 acres of land under mango cultivation, “as much as 26 per cent of land has been taken over by various real estate projects.” This has forced commercial farmers to shift to the eastern part of Multan and adjoining towns and districts.

In Pakistan, the duration and frequency of hot days and heatwaves have increased over the years, says Sardar Sarfraz, the chief meteorologist, Sindh. The heatwaves were not common before 1990 but now their intensity, duration and frequency have increased. According to Sarfaraz, from 1974 to 2022, the trend of increase in heatwaves and severe heatwaves has become a lot more prominent. During the last five decades, there have been several instances when even within one summer, heatwaves or severe heatwaves have struck twice or thrice, for 6-8 days, sometimes 10 days. The maximum temperatures during this period have varied between 46 degrees C and 50 degrees C.

In Multan, the average daytime temperature has increased from 39.4 degrees C to 39.5 degrees C, a rise of 0.1C. The nighttime temperatures have also risen by 0.9C, from 24.2 degrees C to 25.1 degrees C. None of this is healthy.

All life forms suffer under a climate change. Agricultural crops are facing new challenges. This mango district also had the distinction of being the cotton capital of the region but the shifting weather patterns have blighted the twin distinction with more heat and erratic rainfall. Like most crops, mango is most vulnerable to high temperatures during the flowering period. The buds simply wither and fall off.

Dr Asif Rehman, the Mango Research Institute, Multan, director, tells The News on Sunday that climate change is posing new challenges to the mango crop. Dr Rehman says in 2024, “…the winter and foggy season was prolonged. It lasted until February. This delayed flowering and bud formation. Instead of a spring with mild temperatures, Multan experienced sudden and abrupt heat with temperatures shooting to as much as 51-52 degrees C,” he says. “This was unprecedented,” he adds.

This abrupt temperature surge had its effects on the mango fruit, which suffered ‘sunburns.’ In some cases, tis reduced the size of the fruit, he says. “However, the farmers took timely remedial action, following advice from the Mango Research Institute, and maintained irrigation, which helped recovery and cut damages.”

Dr Rehman says that out of the 44,000 acres of land under mango cultivation, “as much as 26 per cent has been taken over by various real estate projects.”

This has forced commercial farmers to shift to the eastern part of Multan and the adjoining towns and districts. They also employ high-density plantations to maximise their mango yields. He says mango production and exports have been increasing every year. Many growers treat it as an industry. “Last year, production reached 1,800,000 tonnes and exports nearly hit 146,000 tonnes. The loss of mango from Multan is a gain for other areas that have started cultivating this fruit,” Dr Rehman adds.

Farmers blame lack of supportive policies for mango’s forced exit. Tariq Khan, chief executive of Multan Mango Growers’ Association, claims that, due to the government’s lack of interest, the cost of inputs for mango cultivation has surged, forcing mango farmers to sell their land in desperation. “The area in and around Multan sold to real estate developers is the outcome of rising costs of water, diesel, fertiliser, pesticides and other inputs,” he says.

“The farmers are unable to recover even their investment, much less the profit. He says he would be happy to sell the land for Rs 15 million as he has been unable to make profits from the fruit.”

Owing to the takeover of land, Tariq says, farmers in non-traditional mango belts have started cultivating mango quite successfully. “A large number of farmers in Vehari and Mailsi, even Kot Addu, Muzaffargarh and Khangarh, have shifted to mango as a commercial option. They have found mango more profitable then cotton and maize,” Tariq says. “In a way, the area under mango plantations lost in Multan has been compensated in other parts of south Punjab,” he says.

The fate of Multan’s mango orchards is a poignant reminder that our choices today will shape the world younger generations inherit tomorrow. Let us choose wisely.

The contributor works for The News International