or decades, the United Kingdom has been a popular destination for immigrants, offering opportunities for work, study and family life. However, not all who aspire to make the UK their home can do so legally. Thousands have resorted to perilous journeys across the English Channel, with tragic outcomes: 69 migrants have drowned in the last three years. In 2023 alone, 52,530 people crossed the Channel illegally, and by April 21, 2024, an additional 6,265 had made the attempt, according to the International Organisation for Migrants.

In response to this crisis, the Conservative government has enacted the Rwanda Bill, a controversial piece of legislation designed to deter illegal immigration and dismantle the criminal networks that profit from human smuggling. The bill stipulates that those entering the UK illegally cannot stay. Instead, they will be relocated to Rwanda, where their asylum claims will be processed.

The Rwanda Scheme, officially the UK-Rwanda Migration and Economic Development Partnership, was unveiled on April 14, 2022. This agreement aims to manage and reduce unauthorised arrivals by transferring asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing. Despite initial legal challenges and a Supreme Court ruling deeming the scheme unlawful, Parliament passed the Rwanda Bill, paving the way for its implementation.

Financially, the scheme represents a significant investment. The UK government currently spends £4.3 billion annually on housing refugees and asylum seekers. Under the Rwanda Scheme, if 300 people are sent to Rwanda, the UK will pay a lump sum of £120 million to bolster Rwanda’s economy, with additional payments of £20,000 per individual relocated. The National Audit Office estimates that total payments will exceed £370 million over five years. By the end of 2023, the UK had already disbursed £240 million to Rwanda.

Keeping in view the political reactions and implications, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made the Rwanda Scheme a cornerstone of his immigration policy, facing resistance from the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and some factions within his party. Sunak’s determination is clear: “The passing of this landmark legislation is not just a step forward but a fundamental change in the global equation on migration. Our focus is to get flights off the ground now, and I am clear that nothing will stand in our way of doing that and saving lives,” he has declared.

Opposition leaders, however, remain unconvinced. Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has criticised the scheme, doubting its efficacy in stopping illegal crossings. Labour leader Keir Starmer has vowed to dismantle the scheme if elected, emphasising alternative solutions.

Under this scheme, if more than 300 people are sent to Rwanda, the UK will pay a lump sum of £120 million to bolster Rwanda’s economy, with additional payments of £20,000 per individual relocated. The National Audit Office estimates that the payments will exceed £370 million over five years. By the end of 2023, the UK had already disbursed £240 million to Rwanda.

The public is starkly divided. A YouGov poll revealed that 73 percent of Britons view Channel crossings as a serious problem, with 97 percent of Conservative voters and 49 percent of Labour voters concurring. This divide underscores the broader political battle over immigration.

The general election, to be held on July 4, may ultimately determine the scheme’s fate. The Rwanda Scheme could be more of a political manoeuvre than a practical solution to the migration crisis. The UK faces ongoing criticism from French authorities, who often shift the burden of illegal migrants toward the English Channel.

Despite the government’s efforts, the Rwanda Scheme’s implementation is fraught with challenges. The Home Office has confirmed Rwanda’s agreement to accept 5,700 asylum seekers initially under a forced returns scheme. However, the first failed asylum seeker was transferred under a voluntary programme, offering migrants up to £3,000 to relocate to Rwanda. The scheme could face operational challenges and legal issues in the coming days.

Critics argue that the scheme may not significantly curb illegal migration, as evidenced by the 6,265 small boat arrivals in the first months of 2024, including significant numbers of Vietnamese and Afghan nationals. The policy stipulates that asylum seekers arriving illegally from countries like France could be sent to Rwanda. Successful asylum claims would get refugee status in Rwanda, while others could seek residence on different grounds or apply for asylum in another ‘safe’ country, with no return to the UK possible.

The Rwanda Scheme represents a bold and contentious effort by the UK government to address illegal immigration. While it aims to save lives and break the cycle of human smuggling, its political and humanitarian implications remain hotly debated. As the UK heads towards a pivotal election, the scheme’s future hangs in the balance, reflecting the broader, complex global migration and asylum issue.

Ahead of the polls, the Tory government will attempt to detain more asylum seekers and illegal migrants to transfer to Rwanda.

According to official statistics recently released by the Home Office, 19,253 people without the right to remain in the UK were voluntarily removed from the country last year.

The writer is a correspondent for Geo News, Daily Jang and The News in London