he 18th general elections are under way in India. The electoral process will be completed in seven phases by June 1. Elections have been held in India almost on a regular basis since 1951-52 except for the delay caused by Indira Gandhi-led emergency (1975-77), which has been dubbed as India’s “first dictatorship” by Christophe Jaffrelot, a French political scientist. The Congress remained a dominant party in Indian politics till the 1970s. Though it formed governments in the Centre in the 1980s and 1990s, it lost its political aura and electoral outreach at the hands of rival parties such as the Bharatiya Janata Party. Under Narendra Modi, the BJP led National Democratic Alliance outclassed its rival electoral alliance, the United Progressive Alliance led by the Congress in the 2014 and 2019 general elections. This time the NDA will be facing the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.

With respect to political competition and electoral campaign, the Modi/ BJP led NDA has projected its economic performance, i.e., India being the fifth largest economy, to attract votes across the country. However, Parakala Prabhakar, an economist and husband of BJP’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, published a book The Crooked Timber of New India: Essays on a Republic in Crisis in which he posits that if the Modi-led BJP win, “it would mark the end of Indian democracy.” Importantly, he also criticised the Modi regime for fudging data on poverty reduction and unemployment the latter is on the rise in the final months of the Modi Sarkar.

Besides citing economic factor, Modi and company also appealed the majoritarian Hindu voters through the hurriedly inaugurated Ram Mandir in Ayodhya early this year. Remember, the Vishva Hindu Parishad and RSS-inspired zealots demolished the historic Babri Masjid in 1992 where the said temple was later constructed through judicial machinations. Nonetheless, the Ram Temple gala was a lackluster affair so that the Modi-led BJP had to again focus on Pakistan for electoral purposes. Fortunately, no spat has occurred so far between the nuclear-armed countries. In a recent TV interview, Modi said: “[w]e shouldn’t bother much about Pakistan... For the last 10 years, I have put a lock on Pakistan being a factor in running India… Let Pakistan manage two square meals. We don’t need to waste our time.”

In recent years, the Modi-led BJP has increasingly employed hardline tactics characterised by anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim rhetoric for electoral purposes. While such strategies may yield short-term electoral gains, they pose significant challenges to democracy, social cohesion and diplomatic relations. The BJP’s anti-Pakistan rhetoric has already hindered efforts towards peaceful coexistence.

Various surveys have indicated a victory of the BJP led NDA. If that happens, it will have implications for Pakistan, the South Asian region, China-India ties, and India-US relations. As already argued, Modi-led BJP marked zero interest in normalising ties with Pakistan despite talks in Pakistan, particularly during the Imran Khan-led PTI government. Given mutual mistrust and ruptured bilateral ties since 2014, any breakthrough in India-Pakistan relations seems unlikely.

The US carries some leverage in the South Asian affairs in terms of its trade ties with Pakistan and India. However, it does not seem to be in a position to push India to normalise ties with Pakistan beyond a point. Within South Asia, the Modi-led India will continue to project itself as a developed country with the potential to become the third largest economy in the coming years. As far as India-China relations are concerned, economic rationality is likely to prevail over military confrontation. Being economically behind China in many ways, India cannot afford an armed conflict with China, which is militarily more advanced. For military and energy reasons, India under Modi is likely to deepen ties with Russia despite American concerns. Same goes for India-Iran commercial cooperation. India leasing Chabahar for 10 years should be an eye opener for Pakistani policy makers. Finally, India is likely to consolidate bilateral relations with the US economically, technologically and militarily. Whether India overtly joins a US-led anti-China security mechanism remains to be seen. Regardless of who wins the elections in India, Pakistan has its work cut out in order to re-rank its choices accordingly.

The writer has a PhD in political science from Heidelberg University and a post-doc from UC Berkeley. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright fellow and an associate professor. He can be reached at ejaz.bhatty@gmail.com