That the climate crisis poses a grave threat to our collective well-being is indisputable. Yet, when it comes to the impact of the climate crisis – be it through changing monsoonal pattern, the onset of regular heatwaves or recurring floods, it is the downtrodden segments of society who get affected the most. Climate vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. These factors, in turn, are a function of society’s ‘development’ trajectory.

While the manifestations of the climate crisis are quite real, not every disaster can be laid at the feet of global warming alone. Consider the floods that affected Sector E-11 in Islamabad in 2021. A posh locale in the heart of the capital city that flooded not due to a ‘cloud burst’ as was proclaimed by some but mainly due to state sanctioned encroachment on the watershed. Another example is the impact of floods on Swat River bed, which has been encroached to such an extent that even average rain events threaten communities that lie on its fringes. In essence, what these examples highlight is how our governance structures continue to enhance the vulnerability of communities across Pakistan such that their exposure to extreme weather events is further enhanced, their sensitivity is magnified and their adaptive capacity is limited primarily as a result of poor and ineffective decision making. This is, in essence, a failure to perceive and address risk.

The 2022 floods revealed the impact of command and control, technocentric, engineered approaches to water management in Pakistan dating back to the colonial era. The assumption is that if you throw money on a problem and foster brick-and-mortar-focused large infrastructure projects then you can address all your problems. No wonder then that Kalabagh Dam was repeatedly highlighted as something that could have prevented the floods. Never mind the fact that the 2022 floods were exacerbated by rain events in the hills of Balochistan and torrential downpours in Sindh, hundreds of miles south of the proposed site at Kalabagh. Never mind, too, the fact that water could not be drained due to infrastructure such as highways, railway lines and mega projects such as the outfall drains which circumvented any opportunity for flood waters to recede naturally thus resulting in massive inundation that impacted millions.

Even with the multitude of governance failures, what awaits us in terms of the climate crisis is nothing like anything we have seen before. The global average temperatures are well on their way to exceed the 1.5 to 2 degree Centigrade limit set by the Paris Agreement. In fact, the current trajectory puts us closer to the 3-degree mark by the end of this century. We have already started hitting tipping points such as the melting of glaciers, bleaching of coral reefs and sea water intrusion. These impacts will continue to strengthen and expand with each tenth of a degree rise in warming; thus, in effect, enhancing climate vulnerability of communities across the world and, especially, in developing countries like Pakistan.

Community-based adaptation requires an understanding of scientific knowledge in regard to the impacts of climate change on a particular locale.

What is now necessary is for us to develop a holistic plan of action in terms of addressing the risks posed by the climate crisis. Last year, the government completed the long-awaited National Adaptation Plan, which is a step in the right direction. This should now lead to local level, community-based adaptation plans that address the needs of vulnerable communities across the country. Given the variance in impacts of climate change across geographies and social dimensions in Pakistan, adaptation practices at the local level will have to be inherently indigenous. In other words, they will have to be community led with effective support from federal, provincial and local governments. The term sustainability is now so misused that it has become meaningless. Yet, this is exactly what we should be aiming for through a collaborative, bottom up approach to understanding how the climate crisis will manifest itself across tehsils and talukas across the country.

Community based adaptation requires an understanding of scientific knowledge in regard to the impacts of climate change on a particular locale. This information is triangulated through the use of participatory tools whereby local, indigenous knowledge is brought to the fore to understand how communities have historically dealt with the intricacies of the climate. Gaps in regard to early warning systems, for example, can be highlighted through an enhanced understanding of decision-making processes at the local level. This can then lead to identifying and planning activities with focus on participatory and integrated ways of listing, prioritising and sharing risk reduction and community-based adaptation approaches. As an example, on-farm adaptation measures can include changes in farming practices with the assistance of agricultural extension service, diversification of crops grown, improved water management, and harvest storage. Similarly, local level land use planning needs to account for climatic challenges and proposed development activities modified in light of the risk profile of the communities. A focus on inclusive processes, regardless of how time intensive they may be, will lead to building trust and ownership at the community level.

Having an effective and empowered local government system in place will strengthen this exercise. This remains a major gap that will need to be addressed soon if we are to effectively harness the potential of collective action to address the climate crisis. Finally, there is a role for civil society and academia in contributing to initiatives that address the climate crisis. Some not-for-profit entities are already working in far off regions in the country. Their knowledge and understanding of communities across Pakistan need to be utilised when developing local level adaptation plans. Research gaps can be filled by using resources at universities across Pakistan. Student theses and dissertations can help facilitate adaptation initiatives in a particular district.

The climate crisis is rightly considered a threat for Pakistan. But it is also an opportunity for course correction when it comes to our development trajectory. If we can recognise this opportunity then, over time, we will find that not only are we able to come to terms with the changing climate, we will also simultaneously address a plethora of other developmental challenges facing the country.

The writer is the governance and policy director at WWF Pakistan. His X handle: @imran2u