onducive weather conditions in both India and Pakistan helped record wheat production this year. However, Pakistan has yet to catch up with the new environmental reality hampering its growth. India, meanwhile, is trying to cope with climate change using indigenously developed varieties of heat-resistant and short-duration seeds.

Pakistan is still struggling to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on wheat crop. There has been no significant headway in the development of indigenous varieties of climate-resilient seeds.

Climate manifestation

India is the second and Pakistan the eighth-largest wheat-producing country in the world. India is self-sufficient in wheat output. Pakistan imports 2-3 million tonnes a year.

The harvesting of wheat crop is currently under way in both countries. In India, wheat output is projected to reach a record 114 million tonnes in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June); Pakistan has set a target of 32.2 million tonnes from an area of 8.9 million hectares.

While the two countries have been facing the impact of climate change on wheat crops since 2010, the current year has been exceptionally favourable. There has been no terminal heat wave and no unseasonal rains.

“Weather has been favourable this year. During the crucial period of mid-January and February, there were sudden heat waves, unseasonal rains or lodging. We are expecting a bumper crop,” ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (ICAR-IIWBR) Director Gyanendra Singh says.

India looks to neutralise climate impact

Thanks largely to the availability of new seed varieties and greater awareness among farmers, climate-resilient wheat varieties have been sown on more than 80 percent of the wheat area - 34.15 million hectares - this year, he says.

Out of the 600 indigenous wheat varieties released so far, Singh says more than 100 climate resilient varieties are in seed chain now. 14 new varieties were released this year.

According to Naresh Kumar, the principal investigator at ICAR’s National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture, India is doing much better than most countries in taking agronomic measures such as changing planting dates and introducing short-duration varieties besides promoting raised bed cultivation, sprinkler irrigation and soil-water-nitrogen management.

Wheat crop is highly sensitive to high temperatures. Hot and unseasonal warm weather cut India’s wheat output in 2022 and 2023, leading to a drawdown in state reserves.

A 5.5 percent decrease in wheat yield was reported during the past 30 years (1980–2010) due to a decadal temperature increase of 0.13 degree Celsius. With further rise in temperatures projected, many studies have forecast a decline in wheat production across the world.

Rajbir Yadav, wheat breeder and principal scientist at Indian Agricultural Research Institute, says climate-smart seed varieties developed in India can be easily introduced in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. “These can fit well in some areas as agro-climatic conditions are similar,” he says.

Pakistan’s adaptation challenge

The situation is different in Pakistan. Since 2021, Agriculture Departments have released 31 wheat varieties with international collaborations to make the wheat crop more productive, climate resilient and disease resistant. Pakistan Agriculture Research Council has acquired more than 4,000 wheat germ-plasm varieties from various international sources for evaluation and utilisation in national breeding programmes. However, it has yet to indigenously produce quality seeds and species with demonstrated ability to absorb climate shocks.

Ejaz Rao, a progressive farmer in Bahawalpur, says, “The agriculture authorities have failed to improve the seed quality in 20 years. Hybrid seeds from countries having different climates present a dual challenge i.e. they are often incompatible with local conditions and they carry various diseases.

Admitting that climate change has necessitated changes in sowing and harvesting seasons, he calls for early adaptation. “The availability of seeds, fertiliser and water must be ensured on time to ward off la niña and el niño effects,” he says.

Dr Zahir A Zahir, a professor at the Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, says that the University in collaboration with Washington State University has developed and acclimatised germ-plasm that requires less water and gives more yield.

The climate change toll

“Pakistan has turned from a net exporter of wheat to a net importer in just five years, due to the formidable twin challenge of climate change and population explosion,” says Mushtaq Ahmad Gill, chief executive of the South Asian Conservation Agriculture Network.

Highlighting the importance of water amidst raging global warming, Gill a former director general of water management, says Pakistan has a water storage capacity for only 30 days.

“Half the year, we face a drought, the other half, floods,” says Gill. He calls for increasing the water storage capacity and saving precious fresh water from floing into the sea.

“The agricultural scientists and farmers in India and Pakistan, stay in touch. There are regular online sessions to benefit from each other’s experience. We exchange technology, expertise and products to help each other get optimum yields,” Gill says.

Social and political will

Ahmad Rafay Alam, an advocate for environment protection, says that global warming has increased the temperature by 1.2 °C worldwide, but its impact has been significantly greater in Pakistan, with an estimated increase of 2.5° C in temperature since 1960.

“For every 1 degree increase, there’s a loss of 10 percent of crop productivity.” To reduce pressure on wheat production, he says people must go back to traditional cereal foods like pearl millet, barley and maize.

Punjab’s Minister for Agriculture Syed Ashiq Hussain Shah says, “We are expecting a bumper crop this year.”

While agriculture in India is making steady progress in terms of adaptation to climate change, political instability in Pakistan, with the fourth government in the saddle in two years, has not helped matters.

This collaborative report is a part of the cross-border reporting programme of the US-based East-West Center.

Amer Malik is an investigative journalist associated with The News International, Pakistan. He is an EWC and GIJN fellow. His X-handle: @AmerMalik3

Laxmi Devi Aere is an assistant editor at The Press Trust of India in New Delhi, India.