he agriculture sector in Pakistan is the primary employer for approximately 37.4 percent of the country’s labour force, contributing about 22.9 percent to the GDP. It is also the biggest driver of greenhouse gas emissions in Pakistan accounting for 41 percent of the total (second only to energy at 44 percent).

Despite this significant role, Pakistan encounters hurdles in advancing towards resilient and sustainable food systems, exacerbated by various shocks and stresses. Among these, climatic change poses a major challenge. To address this, there’s an urgent need to equip the agriculture sector to adapt to evolving climatic conditions.

Recognising this imperative, Pakistan, alongside 159 other nations, endorsed the UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action. The commitments outlined in this declaration align closely with Pakistan’s pledges at the United Nations Food Systems Summit 2021. However, the implementation of these commitments remains pending.

Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive understanding of the food system dynamics, which is marred by a data gap hindering effective decision-making. To bridge these gaps and facilitate informed policy actions, the utilisation of a food system dashboard could offer valuable insights, enabling stakeholders to monitor, analyse and respond to emerging trends and challenges in real-time. Integrating data-driven approaches, alongside international commitments, is crucial for Pakistan’s journey toward building resilient and sustainable food systems.

Climate extremes, such as floods, droughts and heat waves are negatively impacting food systems in Pakistan. These climatic extremes are responsible for the decline in food production (crop productivity and the reduction in micronutrient values of crops) in multiple ways, including through extreme weather events, high temperatures and land degradation. For example, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, massive floods in 2022 destroyed around 1.7 million hectares of agricultural land and negatively impacted the production of rice, wheat, onions and tomatoes.

The disastrous flood of 2022 is not the only climatic factor affecting crop production; increasing temperature, too, have had harmful unfortunate consequences for agriculture in Pakistan. For example, the heat wave (40–42 °C) in March 2022 significantly diminished wheat and other seasonal crop production in the country.

Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows that mango production decreased by about 20 percent due to temperature variations in 2022. The World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Report estimated that the productivity of Pakistan’s agri-food system may decline by about 50 percent by 2050 due to land degradation resulting from climate change.

The second factor - not less important than climatic changes - is the high dependency on imports. In this globalised world, any disruption of food systems in one part of the world has a direct impact on the fate of consumers in other parts of the world. For example, the food export restrictions imposed by Russia and Ukraine (due to the conflict) led to a disruption in the global food supply chain, resulting in an increase in global food prices.

According to the International Food Policy Research Institute analysis, the export restriction on several commodities, in the form of a complete ban or increase in taxes or tariffs, impacted 39 percent of the total calories of food that Pakistan imports to meet its needs. The report also points out that this conflict is also a major factor in rising food inflation in Pakistan, mainly due to a rise in energy prices (gas, petroleum products and electricity).

A growing population is the third major factor posing a serious threat to the food systems in Pakistan. According to the latest census, the current population of Pakistan is 241.49 million. During the last 20 years, food production has not grown sufficiently to meet the country’s food demand. For example, over the last 20 years, wheat production has increased by 37.8 percent while the population has increased by 62 percent.

According to the National Pathways for Food Systems Transformation in Pakistan, the population is expected to reach 350 million by 2050. This will increase the demand for cooked/ prepared food from 70 million tonnes (current demand) to 130 million tonnes by the end of 2050. The question here is: what plans do we have to produce an additional 60 million tonnes of food while the country is struggling to meet current food needs?

While the above-mentioned factors represent the major threats to Pakistan towards transforming its food system, food loss and waste are multipliers for the aforementioned challenges. About 19.6 million tonnes of food - 26 percent of total food production – is wasted annually. This is nearly $4 billion in economic costs and 14 percent of total food calories.

In 2020, Pakistan launched the Agriculture Transformation Plan (2020-2025). However, no considerable progress has been observed in the agricultural sector, mainly due to the lack of an implementation strategy and the limiting factors explained earlier.

In recent times, the Ministry of National Food Security and the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council together with development partners, such as the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition have revitalized Pakistan’s Sub-National Food Systems Dashboard which could serve as a game changer towards the food systems transformation journey in Pakistan.

The Food Systems Dashboard potentially provides much-needed data and evidence for effective policy interventions. The data availability for policymaking will set the stage for change by strengthening the political commitment of policymakers to allocate resources for actions that require immediate attention for sustainable food systems in Pakistan.

In this backdrop, Pakistan needs to speed up its efforts to address the triple challenge of climate change, population and conflict looming over Pakistan’s food systems. This requires a cross-sectoral and multidimensional approach to build resilience to such challenges.

Striving for agriculture uplift alignment with Sustainable Development Goals is essential for bolstering food and nutrition security in the country. Climate change poses a significant threat, altering agricultural patterns and exacerbating food insecurity due to extreme weather events and changing growing seasons. Research into resilient agricultural practices and climate-smart technologies is imperative to mitigate these impacts and ensure sustainable food production in Pakistan.

Additionally, improving physical and economic access to food is vital, particularly for vulnerable populations within the country. Research initiatives aimed at diversifying production, reducing food waste and establishing equitable distribution systems are crucial to improving the availability of nutritious food in Pakistan.

The rapidly growing population in Pakistan intensifies pressure on food resources, underscoring the need for innovative research into sustainable production methods and dietary diversification. By establishing a national research agenda that addresses these interconnected issues, Pakistan can catalyze transformative change and pave the way towards a more secure and equitable food future.

In confronting the triple challenge of climate change, population growth and global conflict, urgent action is imperative to safeguard Pakistan’s food systems. Integrated action plans, informed by reliable data and a clear research agenda, are essential to navigate these complex challenges effectively.

By prioritizing cross-sectoral alignment, investing in innovative research initiatives and empowering future generations, Pakistan can pave the way towards a resilient and sustainable food future. Collaboration among stakeholders is key to driving transformative change and ensuring food security, nutrition and climate resilience for all. Now is the time for decisive action to build a more equitable and secure food system for generations to come.

Rabia Tabassum and Salah-ud Din Yousaf are associated with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

Faiz Rasool is Head of Policy & Advocacy at the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition.