he failure of Sarfraz Bugti, the new chief minister of Balochistan, two weeks after his swearing-in, raises concerns about the provincial government and the Senate elections.

There is speculation that the allocation of cabinet positions hinges on whether elected members from Balochistan will support party-backed candidates in the Senate election. The situation reflects the apparent distrust of mainstream parties in the local leadership. This lack of confidence exhibited by the political leadership raises questions about the feasibility of engaging separatist elements in a meaningful political process proposed by Bugti.

The mistrust is not new; it has taken many forms. The seeds of mistrust in Balochistan were planted shortly after independence, but it may be pointless to revisit the history. It is time to move forward with the understanding that the uprising in Balochistan has passed into the hands of younger, educated middle class leaders so that traditional tactics may no longer be effective. The credibility of earlier mediators has been so undermined that nobody appears to be willing to undertake the task of paving the way for peace.

The federation must address its own failures in Balochistan and resolve to end negligence as well as exploitative practices. Rather than letting this insurgency escalate, it should cultivate peace through confidence-building measures, such as resolving the missing persons issue by either releasing those in custody or holding fair trials. Such an approach does not aim to appease the separatists. The goal is to retain local support where it is still available.

Simultaneously, the government should proactively address the socio-economic challenges in the province. If internal failures are not addressed, they will continue to encourage external intervention and violent conflict.

Balochistan, the largest province of Pakistan, trails significantly on socio-economic indicators. Studies like those undertaken by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in 2020 and the Pakistan Multidimensional Poverty Index of 2016 highlight alarming poverty levels. Nearly 41 percent of the households are living below the income poverty line; 71 percent are in multidimensional poverty.

These findings present a grim picture. More concerning, however, is that Balochistan, burdened with these challenges, is still being governed in a ‘business as usual’ manner, lacking targeted strategies to address these issues. This is evident from the fact that, while all other provincial cabinets have been formed, the swearing-in of Balochistan’s cabinet remains uncertain.

Balochistan needs a policy of reform, reconciliation and restoration. It has to be a policy rooted in transparency. Community engagement is vital for its credible execution. This policy must be embraced by state and government institutions at all levels. The success of this initiative will hinge on the trust and support placed in policymakers and the executing agencies. Their efforts to enact change have to be sustained and not compromised by shifts in military leadership.

Secondly, to effectively address the Balochistan issue, the focus should shift from exclusively negotiating with separatists, which can be like pursuing an elusive target, to engaging the province’s youth. More young individuals might not join the separatists, but their current alienation from the state is a serious issue. Prioritising engagement with the youth, who are more accessible and likely to be responsive to positive initiatives, is essential.

Third, an effective strategy needs to be developed for development of the province’s workforce. Certified vocational and non-vocational training programmes tailored to sectors such as agriculture, livestock, mining, shipbreaking and hospitality etc can prepare young adults for employment opportunities in these industries. This is crucial for economic growth. Investors are drawn to regions having a skilled workforce. This strategy contributed to the success of China’s special economic zones.

A practical approach will involves operationalising the Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority in collaboration with the private sector, utilising CSR funds from companies operating in the province to minimise the burden on the PSDP funds. Additionally, linking the TEVTA with career placement firms can ensure that training recipients secure guaranteed jobs in the market, bridging the gap between the supply of and demand for skilled labour in key industries. The key lies in connecting this idle yet capable workforce with industry needs.

In doing this, prudence demands that the government follow Deng Xiaoping’s approach of “crossing the river by feeling the stones.” This means that instead of implementing large-scale changes all at once, the focus should be on initially testing this model on a small scale. Once there is evidence of success, it can be extended to other sectors.

Fourth, it is vital for Balochistan to undertake responsible initiatives in developing its abundant mineral resources. In the extractive industry, there is a common saying: “geology shapes geography,” meaning that significant changes are driven by identification of mineral reserves. Efforts should be made to enhance the quantity and accuracy of geological information regarding the province’s mineral wealth.

The government should conduct mineral resource mapping. This involves identifying and delineating mineral deposits through geological and geophysical surveys. Accurate mapping is crucial for determining the location, quantity and quality of mineral resources. This can enable the government to avoid reliance on misleading data and prioritise minerals based on market demand, economic value and strategic importance.

Using this data, the government can strategise the creation of a comprehensive value chain for the mining sector rather than focusing on the upstream sector alone. The province’s role should not be limited an exporter of resources.

Balochistan is at a critical juncture today. The challenges are profound but not insurmountable. A multifaceted approach involving consistent policies, social development initiatives and establishing infrastructure for equitable resource distribution is needed. The key lies in genuine engagement with the local population and investing in their future. The path ahead is complex, but with focused efforts and a commitment to sustainable development, Balochistan can transform its narrative from one of neglect and conflict to a story of hope and progress.

The writer is a lawyer and a member of he Board of Directors the OGDCL and Saindak Metals Limited