akistan is poised for a PDM 2.0 set up. The recently elected public representatives have taken the oath of office and will soon be settling down in their debating chambers. The people who have voted in the recent elections and those who have purposely stayed away from the once-in-five-years enfranchising exercise will be following yet another chapter of great expectations in their lives.

While Imran Khan wrestles his karma and Nawaz Sharif is consigned to virtual wilderness, a critically bruised Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz again finds itself forced into playing a weak hand for the “sake of country’s pulverised politics, emaciated economy and scrawny stability.” Most of its coalition partners have also expressed similar altruism where a mundane desire to join a government might have sufficed as an explanation. As if the mountain of myriad quandaries were not enough to scale, there will be constant pressure from those who love to quote Charles de Gaulle, the soldier statesmen, who famously said that “politics is too serious a matter to be left to politicians.”

It is no secret now that Nawaz had wanted fresh elections as soon as Imran-led administration was pulled down in April 2022 through a vote of no-confidence. However, Shahbaz Sharif and Asif Zardari argued for and managed to keep the PDM government going for well over a year. This allowed Imran to regain his popularity while Nawaz’s narrative was lost in the wind. Shahbaz and Asif, chosen by the allies to be the next prime minister and president, respectively, are apparently confident that they can steer the staggering ship from choppy waters to safe shores. They will soon find out more about the challenges their voyage holds. It is not only that the course is littered with limpet mines, those who have been handed over the charge of the battered vessel also carry the burden of mutual distrust. The reasons for their coming together can hardly be called sublime or philanthropic.

Technically, the PML-N will be in charge of the federal government. In reality, the PPP and the MQM-P will share the bridge with a hand on the helm. One stern move by the skipper could spark a mutiny. The only satisfaction the captain can have that the mutineers will be more likely to wreck or sink the ship than to take control and steer it to safety.

Once the coalition is done with portfolio distribution, the administration’s first challenge will be to ensure that the ‘begging bowl’ has enough pennies to feed and fund a malnourished colossus. With only a handful of lenders around and with a compromised ability to repay the loans, Pakistan’s next government will soon find borrowing getting harder by the day. With public anger rising and government’s ability to deliver on phantasmagoric promises depleting, the PMLN-PPP led administration will soon find itself in sticky situations – a lot sooner than they expect today. The first such moment could arrive within the first 100 days when the government will be expected to present the budget for the next fiscal year. The rich find it easy to make promises to the poor. They, however, find it very hard to part with personal pelf.

The coalition’s ability to perform as a coherent team will be tested right from the word ‘go’. Shahbaz will have to keep his niece in the Punjab ‘happy’ in order to make sure that his melancholic brother stays on his right side.

The coalition’s ability to perform as a team will be tested right from the word ‘go’. Shahbaz will have to keep his niece in the Punjab ‘happy’ in order to make sure that his melancholic brother stays on his right side. He will also find it taxing that many of the top party men are not at hand to fill the ministerial slots. The PPP has had a good run during the previous PDM stint. They may soon change their stance on accepting cabinet seats and demand an arm and a leg. Nawaz will most likely stay away from parliamentary debates and may not even be available for ‘expert’ advice. Senior party men have said anonymously that Shahbaz may not like to consult his brother too often now that he has been handed over the premiership for a full term. Gestures like seeking Nawaz’s approval of party decisions will likely continue for now. After all, he will be the president of the party once again. “Shahbaz will rather prove to those in Rawalpindi that he can very well be the next philosopher king.”

While economy and stable governance take centre stage as the biggest challenges for the incoming government at the federal level, the alarming security situation in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will also test its nerves. The PMLN-led administration may not have ministers of its first choice for critically important portfolios like finance, interior, foreign affairs and defence. How will it run a smooth operation with the PPP waiting in the wings to walk in and ‘rescue’? In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the security situation on the borders with Afghanistan and Pakistani Taliban retaining a harming-at-will ability mixed with an unruly PTI administration could present a deadly melange.

The political scene could take months, even years, to calm down. Externally, Pakistan may find it hard to balance its relations with Washington and Beijing. It will be interesting to see if stalled projects like the CPEC do pick up pace under the new administration. Only time will tell if innovative ideas like the SIFC deliver great dividends.

The last decade of Pakistani politics has many lessons for the students of politics and history. British politician and statesman Winston Churchill once said that “politics is almost as exciting as war and quite as dangerous. In war, you can only be killed once. But in politics, many times.” Let us see how the PML-N and its allies play the latest round of power politics. For now, they are ahead of their greatest political challenger. It will be interesting to see if the older Sharifs and an aging Zardari can firm up their grip on power and make a smooth transition to the next generation while Imran Khan remains behind the bars.

The writer is resident editor of The News International in Islamabad/ Rawalpindi