he surprise victory of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf in the 2024 elections has substantially spoiled what may have been a well-crafted political design. Its third consecutive victory in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and impressive performance in the Punjab have shocked its opponents. In the post May 9 scenario, many of the party’s top leaders had switched their loyalties. Others were arrested or went into hiding. For a while, the party existed only in the virtual space. Some of its political opponents mocked its absence on the ground. While most political analysts acknowledged a popular wave in its favour, they failed to perceive and project its intensity.

The PTI’s ‘victim’ narrative created a powerful wave of sympathy. The anger and frustration of its supporters and self-motivated radical youth cadres were positively channeled through ballot boxes. The winding-up of Project Imran Khan had a disastrous outcome. The switching of loyalties the traditional elite had resulted in a political vacuum that was filled by new faces. In the absence of party heavy-weights and traditional constituency players, the party fielded a large number of women and younger men. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa alone, 44 new persons won assembly seats from the PTI’s platform.

Many women candidates were fielded initially as proxy candidates for their male family members. Their brave resistance contributed to generating a popular wave of sympathy. It also mobilised more female voters in some constituencies.

PTI’s sustained hegemonic presence in virtual spaces too was an important factor in its success. Its self-motivated social media workers outclassed all rivals. The single “Imran factor” variable put across through PTI’s social media presence beat the pattern of other campaigns. That factor compensated for the party’s absence on the ground to establish party offices, hold public rallies and carry out active door-to-door canvassing campaigns. By bringing down the transportation costs, it also dented the constituency and patronage-based electoral structure. The party identifications seeped to grassroots level so that in many rural areas PTI candidates challenged the monopoly of the traditional elite. The poor governance under the PDM coalition and poor timing of some court rulings against Imran Khan added fuel to the fire.

The PTI-backed independents have emerged as the largest group in the National Assembly. The denial of a party symbol to the PTI by the Election Commission and the judicial endorsement of the ruling have, however, created legal complications for the party. The PTI has been forced to put its eggs in the vulnerable basket of minor religiopolitical forces with a problematic sectarian outlook. The Sunni Ittehad Council and the Majlis-i-Wahdat-ul-Muslimeen have benefited from the situation. Most PTI-backed independents have since joined the new forum in a bid to secure the party’s share of seats reserved for women and religious minorities.

The party is going to submit its nominations for women and minority seats in the National Assembly and the provincial assemblies of the KP, the Punjab and Sindh. The ECP, whom the party blames for many of its problems, has to make a decision on the request. The party has recently demanded the resignation of the Chief Election Commissioner over the commission’s failure to ensure a level playing field before and during the elections.

PTI’s ‘victim’ narrative created a powerful wave of sympathy. The anger and frustration of its supporters and self-motivated radical youth cadres were positively channeled through ballot boxes.

Following its success at the polling stations, the PTI has to overcome several legal and political challenges. In the absence of Imran Khan, the party lacks a clear chain of command. The authority of the nominated chairman, Gohar Khan, is not universally recognised and multiple power centres have emerged, each claiming the blessing and approval of Imran Khan. These have offered conflicting views on the party’s position on several issues. Omer Ayub Khan, nominated as the party’s candidate for prime minister, claims for instance that the party is going to form governments at the Centre and in the Punjab, but has failed to offer a workable plan to achieve this goal. Some other members have said that the party is preparing for a role in the opposition.

The PML-N has benefited from this confusion. It has recruited quite a few independent members-elect, resulting in a majority in the Punjab and a slightly increased share of reserved seats in the National Assembly.

Although the PTI’s rigging narrative has been quite a success, it has also created confusion. Its conflicting claims of winning 150 or 170 or 180 seats in the National Assembly are bound to undermine the credibility of such claims. Exaggeration in pursuit of effectiveness can prove counter-productive on the legal front. Although the party claims that more than 87 seats were ‘stolen’ the Form 45 copies it has produced as evidence are available for a much smaller number. The legal battle requires substantial proof. It seems that the party has given up on legal remedies and is focusing on a political narrative on rigging.

The division in the party ranks between the moderate elements led by Barrister Gohar and radical elements like nominated chief minister Ali Amin Gandapur and social media famed Sher Afzal Marwat are visible. Each claims the blessings of the party supremo. It may be a good strategy in some situations to engage the different segments but it also has the potential to undermine the party’s ability to achieve certain goals. The pragmatic segment was recently outclassed by the radicals on the issue of forming alliances with mainstream political forces and splinter groups like the PTI Parliamentarian.

The party is facing another grave challenge. In Imran Khan, it has lost its great crowd-puller. No other party leader has the potential to fill that vacuum. In the post May 9 phase, the party failed to hold strong agitation. Its failure to launch powerful street agitation against alleged rigging is going to expose the party’s historically established potential.

Before May 9, street agitation was considered a PTI strength. The party would mobilise impressive crowds on Imran Khan’s call. However, it failed to offer impressive resistance following Imran Khan’s second arrest; launch a protest over Imran Khan’s conviction; or after alleged rigging, despite a charged support base. Its desperate move to engage the JUI-F, which has a track record for street agitation reflected this weakness of the party.

The party’s moderate cadres have moved cautiously, not wanting to lose the initiative to the hawkish elements and to avoid a repeat of May 9 like incidents. Although the party has shown great resilience in difficult circumstances, a long and complicated journey with political and legal trappings remains.

The writer is an assistant professor at the Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad. His major area of interest is electoral politics in Pakistan. He can be reached at sajidkhanhistorian@gmail.com, and on X: @sajidkhanqau