The recently elected president of Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, has demonstrated his rejection of Indian pressure and defiance of diplomatic bullying, asserting his country’s independence. This stance has sent a clear message to India. Two weeks ago, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi woke up to a surprising barrage of insults, as he was referred to as a terrorist, a clown and an Israel sympathiser. These remarks came from three new Maldivian government deputy ministers who were dismissed for their remarks.

This resulted from Narendra Modi’s publicised visit to the Lakshadweep archipelago north of Maldives to promote local tourism while comparing it the Maldives. The events led to a frenzy over social media with public calls for boycotting the Maldives as a tourist destination. Indian tourists made more than 209,000 trips to Maldives in 2023, making up 11 percent of its tourism market. While Russia contributed about the same amount, and China wasn’t far behind, providing 187,118 visits, or 10 percent of the total. The controversy over tourism came close to the newly elected president Muhammad Muizzu’s visit to China and his apparent departure from his predecessor’s India First policy.

The nation of Maldives, strategically located in the central Indian Ocean with a population of roughly half a million, has 1,200 islands that help the country maintain guard and connection over one of the world’s busiest shipping routes between east and west and is one of the popular tourist destinations in Asia. The previous president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, had emphasised putting India First in the country’s foreign policy and sought India’s help in dealing with trafficking, maritime travel and trade management, giving legitimacy to India’s military presence.

In October 2023, however, the public elected a new leader, President Muhammad Muizzu, from a different party. President Muizzu wants to diversify the country’s foreign policy options and assert more independence in its security operations. He made a campaign pledge to end Maldives’ aerial security cooperation programme with India. The new president is challenging the national defence forces to build greater capacity in the conduct of their operations, expected to soon include hydrography. Muizzu decided in mid-December not to renew India’s hydrography security cooperation agreement with Maldives, which expires in June 2024. In addition, numerous memorandums, especially the one referencing the Belt and Road Initiative, were signed during his visit to China.

Historically, the protocol for newly elected Maldivian presidents involved a visit to India followed by one to China. Nevertheless, President Muizzu departed from this longstanding tradition by choosing China as his first destination. His presidency commenced with a visit to Turkey before participation in the COP28 summit in Dubai. This shift indicates a lower priority for India in the current government’s agenda.

It will be difficult for India to manage a defiant Maldives that can always rely on China and is gearing up to be a part of the BRI.

The successful visit to China has bolstered President Muizzu’s confidence. Upon his return, he proclaimed, “We are not the backyard of any particular country. We are an independent and sovereign nation.” He said that China respected the territorial integrity of the Maldives. The Maldivian president asserted that the Indian Ocean did not belong exclusively to a specific nation, highlighting the Maldives’ significant stake in this vast expanse. Despite the small size of the islands, he emphasised the country’s vast exclusive economic zone, covering 900,000 square kilometres. President Muiza said that the Maldives, with the largest share of the ocean, considered it a shared resource, not the property of a single nation.

This development has irked India, posing a challenging question for the hawkish Jaishankar: whether to perceive Maldives as a potential Chinese ally or as India’s nosy friend in the backyard. The Indian media was quick characterise Muizzu as “pro-China.” From the Indian perspective, Muizzu’s foreign policy is limited to two options: either depend on India or align with China. Indian authorities seem to overlook the reality that the Maldives is an independent sovereign nations with legitimate interests and aspirations. It cannot be coerced into choosing an exclusive partnership with India or China. Instead, it deserves the autonomy to navigate its own path.

President Muhammad Muizzu has been vocally critical of India’s military presence in the Maldives. He has pledged to remove all foreign forces (meaning India) from the country in one year. The Indian presence in the Maldives includes reconnaissance aircraft, military helicopters and personnel. It is also believed to include officers of the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency. The president has argues that the Indian presence poses a long-term risk to his country’s sovereignty.

The behaviour of a small island nation like Maldives has surprised India and further solidified its fears of encirclement by China. It is interesting to note that while this development may be seen as a counter-offensive to the United States Indo-Pacific policy, the US has largely stayed neutral in this row over the past few months. It has sought cooperation with the new government in Maldives at times not paying heed to India’s concerns.

Another facet of the evolving relationship between India and the Maldives is related to the increasingly communal and hegemonic nature of India’s incumbent government that’s fast smashing its secular traditions of coexistence. Much of the hate directed at India during Muhammad Muizzu’s election campaign and his behaviour afterwards was provoked by BJP’s discriminatory treatment of minorities, especially Muslims and its pan-continental view of India as a historic entity coming to full power under Narendra Modi.

It will be difficult for India to manage a defiant Maldives that can always rely on China and is gearing up to be a part of the BRI. Muhammad Muizzu has time and again enunciated that India’s cooperation aligned with Maldives’ national security priorities and interest would be valued and respected. However, this may be a hard pill for India to swallow. The only way out might be for it to flag Maldives’ manoeuvres as a challenge to America’s Indo-Pacific policy. However, the US does not appear to be interested in the bait.

The writer is a freelance contributor. He can be reached at ershad.mahmud@gmail.com. He tweets@ErshadMahmud