he elections having been held, new governments will be soon in place. I have examined the manifestoes of all political parties. There are the usual promises to promote agriculture as a driver of economic growth and a guarantee for food and nutritional security. There are some new ideas and aspirations as well.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, in particular, has promised to declare agriculture an industry and enact a professional council. There is a clear emphasis on rural development and youth welfare programmes. The National Water Policy is to be implemented with a goal of doubling the water productivity. The high-tech interventions proposed include the use of drones. The Pakistan Peoples Party has flagged the recognition of rural women’s contribution to the workforce; attention to the maintenance of rangeland; development of bio-saline agriculture; and farmers’ markets. The manifestoes of both these parties do not mention corporatisation of farming or farm services. The market flaws and information asymmetry have been ignored. The party manifestoes are also silent about GM crops beyond a general mention of biotechnology by the PML-N.

Agriculture and food security concerns include crops, livestock, fisheries, forestry and rangelands; links with city and international markets; and rural development. Agricultural production and food security have a nexus with availability and efficient use of water and energy. Due to resource constraints, small farmers lack the capacity to benefit from the technologies sitting on the ‘shelf.’ Enabling small landholders is a key to any agricultural transformation.

The import bill for essential commodities has crossed the $10 billion mark. A simulation exercise undertaken using production data for the last 20 years for all major commodities showed that at the present pace, for the wheat alone we will be short of 7 million metric tonnes every year for the next 10 years. The import of edible oils and pulses could rise exponentially. The threats to the economy and food security represent an opportunity to reprioritise and strategise public investment and development efforts to transform agriculture.

Compared to the progressive farmers, the national average yields of four major crops are lower by 63 percent for wheat, 297 percent for rice, 59 percent for sugarcane and 187 percent for cotton. This ‘extension gap’ can be seen as a silver lining to the cloud. Further, the ‘research potential’ is 100 percent higher than the progressive-farmer yields. Because of better technology absorption and market development, maize is currently the only major crop with yields comparable to the international standards. While there is great agro-ecological diversity in the country, five crops dominate the landscape, thanks to the state of political economy and the lack of alternatives offered to the farmers. Lack of attention to rural development and the consequent rural-urban migration are a threat to the future of farming. Compliance requirements for international trade and commitments to UN SDGs (Zero Hunger in particular) are weak.

The repeat failure of markets is widely recognised as a lingering problem. Data limitations, bad governance and enforcement gaps allow exploitation of the producer and the consumer alike. The poor performance of the research system is a matter of immediate concern.

A review of historic documents (reports and plans) has identified 14 broad themes clubbed into six groups:

Land and water

n Digitalisation of land and water resources

n Water conservation and management

n Soil health/ fertility and regenerative agriculture

n Urbanisation of fertile lands

Technology and inputs

n Agriculture mechanisation

n Agri inputs: institutional, legal and regulatory issues

n Agriculture credit, subsidies and fin-tech

n Digitalisation of services and service sectors

Crop productivity enhancement

n Productivity enhancement of crops

n High-value agriculture/ horticulture

Agro-ecological zones and clusters

n Agro ecological zones and cropping patterns

n Contract, cluster and corporate farming

Markets and agro-based industry

n Agriculture marketing, storage

n Agro-based industry, trade and investments

Research system reforms

n Integration, HR and skill development

As many as 77 issues have been identified through a consultative process. These will require more than 200 action items. More than 80 commodities and crop clusters deserve attention.

Wheat and rice, currently occupying more than 29.8 million acres of the 54 million acres cropped land, have to be the top priority. The two crops consume 76.27 MAF of water out of the 110 MAF available for irrigation. Crop diversification and (horizontal) expansion requires (vertical) productivity growth in wheat and rice. Water use efficiency of the two crops needs to be improved to spare irrigation water to bring more land under cultivation. A shift from conventional irrigation to ‘bed planting’ of the two crops can save 37.2 MAF of water. 50 percent of the targeted saving will be enough to green all the deserts while reducing GHG emission from the conventional puddled rice cultivation, without compromising yields.

The total cost of conversion – providing bed planters to all tractors currently in use – will be around Rs 50 billion. The intervention can be augmented by providing another machine for residue management. A shredder will eliminate the need for burning the plant residue that the farmers are currently compelled to resort to for sowing in the next crop. The cost of both these machines can be recovered in one crop cycle.

For the 200 action items, an estimated Rs 5-6 trillion investment is required. Public investment should be prioritised to help the small farmers and to catalyse private investments. The following projects have an absorption capacity of more than Rs 200 billion a year:

1. Data warehouse: soil, water, climate and markets for better decision support systems

2. Mechanisation and precision/ climate smart agriculture

n Bed planting and shredding of rice/ wheat to save 37.2 MAF water.

n Harvesters to save 15 percent grain losses during harvesting.

n Drones for effective spray of chemicals and as fertiliser spreader (300 billion industry @four units per village, creating a new SME sector).

n Service centres with complete value chain linkages and credit facilities.

3. Wheat seed replacement @50 percent annually as a general practice to promote new genetics, tolerant to temperature spikes during grain filling.

4. Reorganisation of nitrogen fertiliser subsidy to promote balanced use by adding potash and micronutrients and application of biofertilisers

5. New crops: hemp and soybean (soybean research and development centre)

6. GM crops to include maize, sugarcane and soybean.

7. Cluster development and skilling (around 50 commodities need seed and value addition interventions)

8. Quarantine/ integrated pest management (fruit fly, fall army worm, locust, white fly)

9. Fruit plants nursery reforms/ certification (citrus to begin with)

10. Wheat/ corn flour blending (Chakk- level intervention to promote 20 percent corn added to wheat)

11. Integration and coordination of federal and provincial agriculture research systems and agriculture universities as a single national agriculture research system capable of interacting with the international agriculture research systems and multi-national businesses.

In addition to the investment, several policy and legislative measures are required to improve the performance of the agriculture sector. Being an ignored segment, the rural landscape deserves greater attention.

The election manifestoes of all political parties assigned high priority to agriculture and water/ energy/ food security nexus. These proposals are closely aligned with the promises and priorities identified by the political parties.

The writer is the vice-chancellor of the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad