Major political parties have made attractive promises in their election manifestos and during their campaigns to entice 128.5 million voters to vote for them in the general elections on February 8, in which 25,951 candidates are running for the National and four Provincial Assemblies. The results will establish whether the promises and narratives worked for the candidates and the parties.

Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf has suffered several recent setbacks, the biggest being the convictions of its founder Imran Khan and vice chairman Shah Mahmood Qureshi in the Cipher and Tausha Khana Cases. The two verdicts against Khan and Qureshi in the Cipher Case and Khan and his spouse Bushra Bibi came just 10 days before the general elections. Another problem the PTI is facing is the crumbling of the party cadres into several groups. The withdrawal of its election symbol has also left it with considerable disadvantage as its candidates are now contesting the elections as independents with various symbols. The PTI leaders also complain that many of their candidates and supporters are being harassed and their campaign material is removed from the streets every day.

Despite all this, PTI’s silent supporters can make a difference on the polling day. In fact, some of the PTI lawyers believe that the two verdicts against Khan might swell the sympathy vote.

Advocate Muhammad Azhar Siddiq says, “The verdicts against Imran Khan in the Cipher and Tausha Khana cases will prove counter-productive for those conspiring to keep the PTI out of power.” He says that some of the people who had been disinterested in the polling process will now be motivated to support the PTI’s candidates.

The PTI has a clear advantage in making the best use of technology for its campaign. It is reaching voters through cell phones. Voters in many constituencies have reported receiving WhatsApp voice messages from international numbers. The senders know where the recipients are registered as voters and tell them about the PTI-backed candidates in the constituencies. The voice message urges the recipient to vote for the PTI-backed candidate.

Sher Shah, a businessman, tells The News on Sunday, “I am a voter in NA-130. I received a voice message on WhatsApp from a US number. When I played the message, I was told that the PTI candidate in my constituency was Dr Yasmeen Rashid and that I should vote for her. I was surprised to learn that the PTI campaign knew where I lived and that they have my cell phone number.”

The PTI’s big lead over its rivals in the use of digital tools has kept its campaign alive. The exact extent of its impact will become evident on the polling day.

The PML-N took longer to finalise its candidates and announce its manifesto. Its leader Nawaz Sharif, flanked by his daughter Maryam Nawaz is finally campaigning across the Punjab and some parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It had been a dull campaign until Nawaz hit the road personally. Once he started visiting various districts, the participation of the masses in his rallies has been growing.

In his speeches, he has been talking about the injustices he faced. Focusing on high inflation and its impact on food and energy prices, he has been promising to reduce the prices after coming into power.

Nawaz Sharif has again demonstrated his ability to charge and galvanise his supporters. The PML-N workers are in high spirits especially after some surveys revealed that Sharif was the most popular leader in the Punjab. However, the PML-N is struggling in KP and Sindh. In Balochistan, it might still emerge as the biggest party. “Our strategy to launch the campaign under Mian Sahib’s leadership has proved fruitful. Now, everybody wants to join the PML-N because of his popularity. The PML-N will sweep a majority of seats in general elections,” says Azma Bukhari, the PML-N Punjab information secretary.

One must give credit to the PPP for carrying out a robust election campaign in all four provinces. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari was the first party leader to launch a campaign amid extreme uncertainty about the elections. The PPP has now adopted a strategy of staging multiple rallies on the same day. The rallies are being addressed by Bilawal, his sister Aseefa Bhutto Zardari and former president Asif Ali Zardari. On Wednesday, for instance, Bilawal addressed a huge gathering in Malakand, KP; Aseefa led a procession in Hyderabad, Sindh; and Asif Zardari campaigned in Balochistan.

Bilawal has adopted an intriguing narrative. He is not targeting the PTI. Instead, he has been criticising the PML-N. He has been asking the PTI and PML-N voters to vote for the PPP because it will end political polarisation and victimisation in the country.

On Wednesday, speaking in Malakand, he said, “There will be no political prisoners in the country if the PPP forms a government after the election. If I become the prime minister, my first order will be to release all the political prisoners.” To charm the PTI vote bank, he said, “Imran Khan has been convicted in two cases. Although he had victimised his political opponents and their families, I cannot celebrate his conviction because we don’t believe in political victimisation.”

The fact is that most of the over-30 PTI supporters in the Punjab and the KP had previously supported the PPP. Bilawal’s strategy might bring some of them back to the PPP.

Bilawal was also the first to announce a party manifesto that might attract some of the swing voters.

Senator Taj Haider, a PPP stalwart, says, “The people will see the difference because of Bilawal’s campaign everywhere. The PPP will win more seats than it did in 2018 from Sindh, the Punjab, the KP and Balochistan. The possibility of Bilawal becoming the next prime minister cannot be ruled out.”

Jamaat-i-Islami is the only party besides the PML-N, the PPP and the PTI currently running a country-wide campaign. It is promising to deliver good governance.

All other parties are running their campaigns in select regions where they might emerge as strong parliamentary groups, provided that the independents don’t join the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party in the Punjab and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf Parliamentarians in the KP.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst.

His X handle: @BukhariMubasher