Compared to 2008, 2013 and 2018, the February 8 elections are likely to be a lacklustre affair. Most of the campaigns launched by the political parties so far are more about personalities than manifestoes. The competitiveness associated with general elections is missing. A sense of uncertainty has persisted and insecurity has been growing. There is a popular perception that the powers that be have made up their mind about who is to rule the country for the next (shortened?) term and that the electoral exercise is a mere legitimising ritual.

Sustained political mobilisation and party-voter as well as candidate-voter liaisons are simply incomparable to the two most recent elections when leaders of the major political parties used to address massive public rallies, up to five a day. The harsh weather – an unusually cold winter, a short day span and lack of sunshine – has been a factor in the subdued outdoor activities. The insecurity resulting from terrorist activities and threats has made the matters worse.

Economic hardship has spread despondence, disappointment and hopelessness so that most people are less enthusiastic towards political process. Considering the major challenge currently faced by people is economic and no political party is promising a quick turnaround, mobilising the voters has become harder.

The Pakistan Peoples Party has come up with a commonsense ten-point agenda but not a detailed strategy. Also, none of the major parties can prevail on account of past performance alone. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz campaign does refer to its performance during 2013-18 but it also invokes victimhood and seeks to blame its failures on its detractors. Another issue with the PML-N campaign has been its visible reluctance. It was slow to announce its candidates in many constituencies and confused about what it could promise to the voters. The final list of its candidates was announced on January 21, only 17 days prior to the polling day. Its choice of candidates too has been less than exciting. It appears to have preferred safe candidates and not trusted the youth too much.

The same could be said of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf. However, the party has a plausible excuse or two. Following a ruling by the Election Commission, upheld by the Supreme Court, about its intra-party elections, it has lost its election symbol and the right to issue tickets. Moreover, many of its top tier leaders and first-choice candidates have either been arrested or harassed away. With its leadership in disarray, dissentions in its ranks are quite visible.

Given the challenges, the focus of the PTI leaders has been on matters before the courts rather than the voters and their concerns. Until quite late, it was not clear to its workers and candidates who could grant the party tickets. In the absence of a clear leader, confusion prevailed in the cadres.

Seeing safety in continuity the PTI is harping on its Islamic rhetoric and has identified Islamophobia as a major global issue. It is also seeking the anti-establishment vote but has been unable to release a detailed programme of action with regard to civil-military relations. Some PTI leaders have sought credit for its management of the Covid-19 challenge. However, the party has failed to provide a clear plan for the economy. Likewise, it has no clear position on the increasing militancy.

First to launch a campaign, the PPP has led the field in terms of issuing a manifesto, naming candidates and challenging major rivals. It has also done well to identify its candidate for prime minister. Its young leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has argued that the youth should follow him to build a better and inclusive economy and society. Asif Ali Zardari, the pragmatic senior leader, appears to be waiting for the right time to act. However, the party seems to be reconciled to not doing well in the Punjab. It appears to be expecting a few seats from the south Punjab. Its campaign lacked ideological fervour, second-line command structure and youth engagement. Prof Mohammad Waseem, has described it as an “aggregate of local influentials, par excellence.”

It seems that most of the political parties in Pakistan have been too busy attending to the back channel to pay sufficient attention to the voters. No mainstream political party, for instance, has initiated a meaningful discourse on its proposed foreign policy initiatives including Pakistan’s relations with the United States, China, India, Afghanistan and Iran. No political party has come up with a policy statement on Palestine either. Likewise, the civil-military relations, privatisation of state-owned corporations and much-needed amendments and legislative priorities are missing in their discourse.

In Balochistan, the security situation is preventing political parties from electioneering. Many attacks have been reported since the announcement of the election date. The Baloch nationalist parties are in disarray and unable to emerge as serious contenders for power. The Balochistan Awami Party is expected, therefore, to play an important role after the elections. The Balochistan National Party-Mengal and the Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party are both in tatters due to internal factionalism and external pressures.

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement has struggled to produce a central leadership capable of filling the leadership gap after the forced exit of it founder. The PTI, which fared well in Karachi, in 2018 elections and took over much of the political space previously available to the MQM, is trying hard to get back. For now, the MQM-P appears to be unable to fill the vacuum caused by the PTI’s decline.

The GDA-PTI alliance gave tough time to the PPP in 2018 elections in the rural Sindh but the PPP seems to have too much momentum this time.

The Jamaat-i-Islami fared well in local elections in Karachi recently but has lost its ideological trademark. Instead, it has been highlighting the socio-economic issues.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has been a stronghold of the PTI since 2013. The Awami National Party, the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl and the PML-N have all lost political space to it which they are trying to win back.

Meanwhile, the PTI breakaways i.e. PTI-Parliamentarians and Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party are vying for KP and the Punjab, respectively. Comprising local-influence electables, both are expected to win some seats.

The Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan has woken from its slumber but its direction remains unclear.

Active involvement of citizens and dynamic election campaigns are important to mobilise people for their social, economic and political rights. The caretaker governments, which have had longer than desired terms, as well as the ECP, courts and the media have been accused by some party or the other of being partisan and part of efforts to rig the elections. The upcoming parliament will do well to carefully examine their role and legislate suitable reforms.

The writer has a PhD in history from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. He heads the History Department at University of Sargodha. He has been a research fellow at Royal Holloway College, University of London. He can be reached at abrar.zahoor@hotmail.com. His X handle: @AbrarZahoor1