very winter present seems harsher than the winter past. Family discussions these days pivot to how cold that one winter a few decades ago was; or how Lahore saw its fair share of frost, to more. This interest also spills on to social media where clickbait of “the coldest winter in 100 years” has been doing the rounds.

That said, there’s no doubt that harsh winter cold has taken over the provincial capital. In stark contrast to people complaining about the winter not being cold enough in the past couple of years to comparisons with Murree, we truly are in the middle of a frigid spell.

In December 2023, Lahore, the cultural heart of Pakistan, experienced an unprecedented dip in temperatures, plunging to 5 degrees Celsius. This record-breaking cold snap, accompanied by dense fog, has not only continued to grip Lahore but also much of the Punjab, and indeed other regions of Pakistan. The Pakistan Meteorological Department, in its latest forecast, has predicted that these severe conditions will persist, painting a chilling picture of the days ahead.

The PMD issues synoptic situation reports analysing the country’s climate and projecting weather for the days and weeks to come. The latest report issued by the PMD indicates that a continental air mass, characterised by its dry and cold nature, is prevailing over most parts of Pakistan.

What exactly is a continental air mass? According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s guide on air masses, continental air masses originate from high latitudes and are known to bring significantly colder temperatures. Continental air masses originate over land masses and are hence accompanied by dry air. Continental air masses are designated by a lowercase “c.” The motion of air masses affects precipitation, temperatures, humidity and the onset of fog. Because cold air masses are denser than warm air masses, they usually undercut and displace warm air masses, moving over large areas in a shorter duration of time. In the case of Lahore and surrounding areas, this means a dramatic drop in night temperatures while seeing dry conditions throughout the daytime.

Lahore’s relative humidity over the past week has been noted at a high 93 percent, further accentuating the cold. Relative humidity represents the ratio of atmospheric moisture versus the amount required for the air to be fully saturated. High relative humidity indicates an increased likelihood of fog and severe reduction in visibility.

The intense cold and fog in Lahore have profoundly impacted daily life, disrupting transportation across major routes. Visibility issues have led to the temporary closure of several motorway sections and affected traffic on the National Highway. The National Highways and Motorway Police have been issuing regular advisories, urging travellers to avoid unnecessary journeys due to reduced visibility, particularly outside daylight hours. This adverse weather has also led to significant delays and rescheduling of numerous domestic and international flights and passenger train services.

The current weather patterns have been connected to the positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, expected to persist, while the Indian Ocean Dipole transitions to a neutral state.

The current weather pattern has been linked to the positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, expected to persist, while the Indian Ocean Dipole transitions to a neutral state. The ENSO refers to the naturally occurring large-scale climatic phenomenon in which fluctuating ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, cause massive changes in the overlying atmosphere including overhead masses of air. These masses of air, in turn, accompany climatic variations as they travel over other parts of the ocean and over land.

This climatic outlook, provided by the Pakistan Meteorological Department, is expected to persist in the days to come. The impacts will be most severe in Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining areas of Kashmir.

With these climatic changes, rain-fed areas are under stress, prompting the need for judicious water use. Farmers have been advised to manage crops and livestock carefully in response to the cold. The dense fog and smog also raise health concerns, particularly for those with respiratory issues. Whilst fog itself has no major ill effects, it can aggravate conditions such as asthma and rheumatism. However, when fog mixes with pollutants to form smog, it traps harmful particles at lower heights, posing a risk for all life. These particles, when inhaled, may lead to the development of certain types of cancer.

Amidst these weather changes, the Met Office has been actively dispelling rumours and baseless news circulating on social media. Accurate and up-to-date weather information is crucial for effective planning and response by the public and authorities alike. This record-breaking cold in Lahore is not an isolated incident but part of a larger pattern of extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. Urban areas like Lahore, with their dense populations and infrastructure, are particularly vulnerable. The city’s response to these conditions is a test of its resilience and preparedness in the face of changing global weather patterns.

The closure of schools for a few days to avoid unnecessary exposure to cold, coupled with changing school schedules is a welcome first step, albeit too late for the dozens of young lives lost to pneumonia. It is important that the Education Department and Health Departments of the Punjab collaborate to develop attendance policies that automatically kick into effect once certain thresholds (such as high or low temperatures) are crossed. For travellers, bodies such as the Civil Aviation Authority which is already aware of weather conditions well in advance, must mandate rescheduling of flights in winter to avoid inconvenience to passengers.

The situation in Lahore serves as a reminder of the need for integrated urban planning that considers climate resilience. From developing infrastructure capable of withstanding extreme weather to ensuring the health and safety of its inhabitants, the challenges are manifold. As Lahore navigates through this cold spell, the lessons learned and strategies adopted will be crucial for future planning, not just for Lahore but for urban centres across South Asia, and indeed much of the developing world, facing similar climatic challenges.

The writer is a development sector professional with nearly a decade of experience in communications and reporting. He has supported the implementation of The World Bank’s Disaster and Climate Resilience Improvement Project (DCRIP) and ADB’s Flood Emergency Reconstruction and Resilience Project (FERRP) in Pakistan.