Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has secured another term in the recent general elections.

For decades there has been an intense rivalry between two of the biggest political parties in Bangladesh: theAwami League led by Sheikh Hasina and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party led by former Prime Minister Khalida Zia. Jamaat-i-Islami is the third largest party.

The 12th general elections in Bangladesh were held on January 7. The current term of the incumbent government ends on January 29. According to the unofficial results released by the Election Commission, the AL has won 222 seats out of 298. Sheikh Hasina is thus set to retain power as the country’s prime minister for the fourth consecutive term. Begum Khalida Zia’s BNP boycotted the elections. The voter turnout was reported to be around 40 percent.

The elections have been criticised over allegations of unfair arrests of opposition leaders and other administrative measures to influence the outcome. Earlier, the BNP had demanded that the elections be held under an interim setup and not the AL government. The demand was squarely rejected by PM Sheikh Hasina. She justifies her position based on the 2006 experience when an interim setup led to military rule and several political leaders were arrested, prosecuted and debarred from elections. Consequently, the BNP called for a boycott of the elections and described those as a farce.

The Human Rights Watch has estimated that around 10,000 activists were arrested after an opposition rally on October 28 turned violent, resulting in the death of at least 16 people. More than 5,500 people were injured. The HRW has accused the government of “filling prisons with AL opponents.” On January 1, another opposition rally demanding resignation of Prime Minister Hasina turned violent and rubber bullets and teargas shells were fired to control the crowd. In September 2023, the US had imposed visa restrictions on some Bangladeshi officials accused of undermining the country’s democratic election process. The United Nations and some other international organisations have also expressed alarm over reported human rights abuses and the stifling of dissent. Human rights defenders have warned of a virtual one-party rule in the country.

National economy has done well under Ms Hasina. Bangladesh, once one of the world’s poorest countries, has done well since 2009 becoming one of the fastest-growing economies in the region, even surpassing neighbouring India. Its per capita income tripled over the last decade and the World Bank estimated that more than 25 million people were lifted out of poverty in the last 20 years. It has also become the world’s second largest garments producer after China. Due to a global economic slowdown following the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy saw a downturn in mid-2022 that has continued spiralling. In September 2023, inflation rose to around 9.6 percent. Foreign exchange reserves have dropped since August 2021, from a record $48 billion to around $20 billion, less than required for three months of imports. The country has had to turn to the IMF for loans. The political and financial pressures are thus likely to concern Sheikh Hasina’s government more than ever before.

India needs to keep Bangladesh close. Prime Minister Hasina is aware that as long as India backs her, a threat of sanctions by the West can be countered. The Indian intelligentsia has argued that they need a friendly regime in Dhaka. Sheikh Hasina has forged close ties with India since she was first elected in 1996.

Geographically, Bangladesh is surrounded on three sides by India. There is a 271 kilometre border with Myanmar in the southeast. Bangladesh maintains strategic relations with India, who has historically played an active role in Bangladesh’s politics. Governments of the two countries have maintained very cordial relations nurtured especially by Sheikh Hasina. India lent more than $7 billion to Bangladesh for various projects. The Indian government has been blaming militants backed by the JI in the country for creating unrest in India. Also, the separatists in northeastern Indian states are said to have sympathisers in Bangladesh. India wishes to work closely with the incumbent government in Bangladesh to eliminate their support base. New Delhi is also interested in maintaining road and rail networks with its seven northeastern states via Bangladesh. This is going to be a substantial economic investment for which a friendly government in Bangladesh is essential.

Since China is trying to make inroads to the region, India does not wish Bangladesh to fall in China’s lap. It is, therefore, trying to protect Ms Hasina’s government. India has been advising the US and its Western allies not to impose sanctions on Bangladeshi government as this might redound in favor of China. For her part, Sheikh Hasina is aware that as long as India backs her, any threat of sanctions by the West can be countered. The Indian intelligentsia has argued that they need a friendly regime in Dhaka. Hasina has forged close ties with India since she was first elected in 1996. It’s no secret that New Delhi wants to see her in power. Ms Hasina has been vocal about her country’s close relationship with India. During a visit to India in 2022, she argued that “Bangladesh should not forget India, its government, people and armed forces who stood beside the country during its war of independence in 1971.” For India, Bangladesh is not just a neighbouring country but also a strategic partner and a close ally, crucial to the security of its north-eastern states.

Abraham Lincoln famously said that democracy meant a government of the people, by the people and for the people. If most of the people in a country do not participate in elections or are barred from doing so, how democratic can the government be? The incumbent Bangladeshi government must realise that oppressive measures are likely to bring more turmoil to the country.

Sheikh Hasina’s strategic goals are aligned with the Indian government which has been a violator of human rights on its own land and has recently been in the news for overseas terrorist operations condemned by Canada and the US.

Sheikh’s government has been responding to its political opponents so brutally that there is unrest in the country even though the elections are over. The opposition parties appear unwilling to accept the results. Meanwhile, the country is facing economic hardship and its people are struggling to cope up with the escalating cost of living, especially rising food prices. The international pressure, besides domestic political pressure, is rising by the day for the government to take remedial steps so that normalcy returns to the country. The government of Sheikh Hasina needs to acknowledge the ground realities and move cautiously.