eld in Dubai, the COP 28 has put the issue of climate justice on the backburner, by using the world ‘transition,’ rather than a phasing out of the fossil fuels. Global warming has resulted from the incessant use of fossil fuels since the industrial revolution. It also resulted in the dominance of the West over rest of the world. This is the framework that seems to be governing the issue of global warming before it reaches the tipping point.

The conference accessed how member countries are looking forward to the task of containing the increase in mean global temperature. The forum also made the Loss and Damage Fund operational. Pakistan and some other countries in the group that lobbied for it are hoping to get financial support through it. The UAE, the host nation, set the tone by pledging $100 million for the fund.

However, the parties failed to identify and declare a base line they will use to achieve the target of sustained 43 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emission by 2030, and 60 percent by 2035, in comparison to the emission levels registered in 2019. Failing to comply with the agreed targets, the global temperature is projected to rise by 2.9 degree centigrade, above pre-industrial levels. The situation becomes worrisome as a commitment to peak emission in 2025 is absent. This is happening at a time when stocktaking has revealed that some countries have deviated from the standards set in the Paris Agreement. There is a need to resurrect and improve a strong collective climate action.

Now that some agreements have been reached, who will finance the clime action? A change in global financial landscape through climate finance should be on the dashboard. The developing world needs support in three broad categories: sustainable finance to support the sustainable development goals; green finance for supporting environmental objectives like biodiversity, clean water and clean air; and climate finance for climate change mitigation and adoption. The climate finance is needed to help countries phase out high carbon emission processes and infrastructure and replace them more efficient ones. The Global South is at a gross disadvantage. The Global North reached its current development stage using highly polluting fossil fuels. Now, they are asking the Global South to switch to a low-carbon path and shoulder the transition burden. There is a dire need to reduce the global emissions, to which the Global North is the big contributor. The impact of the climate change, however, has been more severe and harder to mitigate for countries like Pakistan which contribute relatively little to the green house gases. The transition of energy sector (from fossil fuels to renewable resources) requires trillions of dollars. There is a need therefore to devise mechanisms under which the finance can flow from developed to under-developed and developing countries. As per UNESCAP reports, global energy investments have to increase three- to four-fold to attain the sustainable development goals. This transition will require reallocation of capital towards renewable energy, energy efficiency, end use electrification and low carbon fuels, and away from fossil fuels. At the Conference of Parties, the developed countries showed little interest in fulfilling their pledges.

Out of the $9 billion-plus pledges for Pakistan in Geneva following the historic 2022 flood, almost $8.2 billion came from the IDB, the WB, the ADB and the Asia Infrastructure Development Bank. Apart from Saudi Arabia, which pledged $1 billion, the contribution of bilateral development partners was symbolic.

A large part of the pledges was repackaging or (re-announcement) of the earlier initiatives by multilaterals. For example, the $2 billion pledge by the World Bank included $1.3 billion that the bank had lent earlier. Likewise, the EU had already announced its support for Pakistani flood survivors when it signed an MoU with the Economic Affairs Division. Redirected and re-appropriated loans from the projects where progress (burnout rate) was below par was another part of the Geneva pledges.

Attaining climate objectives will require climate investment to increase at least seven times by the end of this decade. It will also require the alignment of other financial flows with Paris Agreement objectives.

According to the World Bank, the total cost for Pakistan to transition to a climate resilient and low-carbon emissions development pathway is anticipated to be $234 billion by 2030. The investment needs are generally categorised into three categories i.e, mitigation, adaptation and crosscutting, where climate finance is required.

Speaking at the Pakistan Climate Conference, convened by the OICCI, in Karachi on November 1, 2023, WWF president Dr Adil Najam categorised climate finance into four categories: right, good, bad and dangerous. The ‘right’ category provides answers for climate justice; the ‘good’ builds on sustainable economic businesses; the ‘bad’ is driven by profit motives; and under the ‘dangerous,’ the Global North makes some finance available to Global South only to keep the status quo going as resources are transferred from developing world to the developed world. The carbon credit banner is a case in point. Pakistan may look forward to other categories, but ‘right’ energy finance is the most desirable.

To maintain poise, at COP 28, Pakistan was keen to present a mechanism called Just Energy Transition Partnerships. The partnerships are achieved: 1) by providing low-cost finance for clean energy technologies and infrastructure; 2) policies for renewables; 3) managing coal phase out in line with sustainability pathways; and 4) supporting a just transition with affected workers. The partnerships have three major components: coal phase-out commitment and plan; targets for the power sector; and a comprehensive investment plan.

South Africa has a $80 billion JETP plan. Out of this it has so far received $8 billion. Indonesia has received $4 billion from its approved $40 billion plan; and Senegal has received $2 billion. Half the amount is made available by the governments of G7 countries. The other half is private capital from partner countries.

Pakistan must concentrate on removing barriers to integration in fiscal planning, cushioning volatility at global market by correcting misplaced priorities. It should also remove governance barriers to lessen political and economic instability for improving energy transition strategies by creating awareness and mustering political will. It needs enhance its institutional capacity for indigenisation and improving data-based risk assessment for accountability through standard disclosure mechanisms.

The COP framework provides an option for Pakistan. Given its peculiar position, it needs to do more. The Indus Valley has a mammoth ecological system, comprising glaciers and rivers, feeding and nurturing life for millennia. The local adaptation plans should be implemented in letter and spirit.

We should understand that global warming due to fossil fuels is not a mere technical issue. It is also a political one. Imagine the US phasing out petroleum products. What will happen to the OPEC? Phasing out fossil fuels directly feeds into superpower competition.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, television producer and researcher working with the SDPI. His X handle is @tahirdhindsa. He can be reached at tahirdhindsa@gmail.com