wo days before the Indian state elections results came out, I was at an event where many a social activists had gathered together. One of them happened to be from Madhya Pradesh. He was a former member of the legislative assembly, currently engaged with organising farmers across the state and the region at large. Asked by some of us about the likely results, his response was simple: if the Congress hadn’t acted so arrogant; if it had agreed to form alliances with other parties like Samajwadi Party and some local groups, they would be in a happier position. He ended the conversation by saying: “While I still maintain in public that the opposition is likely to win, privately I am not so sure.”

A similar sentiment was echoed by another activist who has a sharp connect to the ground in Chhattisgarh among other places. She said that while last time the tribal population had come together to support Congress to upstage the then ruling BJP in the state, this time they had been alienated further. The Congress government hadn’t done much to safeguard their interests from the land grabs etc. Instead, it had ended up making deals with the large businesses aligned with the BJP.

Within less than 48 hours, these worrying portents for the Congress came out to be true even in a state like Chhattisgarh where it was supposedly strong.

The BJP’s victories in Chhattisgarh, the MP and Rajasthan signal continued control over Hindi heartland, showcasing the party’s ability to sway voter sentiment in its favour.

While the Congress won a surprise victory in Telangana, their struggle against BJP-supported parties in the northeast, for instance Mizoram, highlights the challenges they face in countering BJP’s influence in certain regions.

On a broader level, this election also revealed a stark north-south divide, with BJP’s consolidated domination in the north but a relatively weaker presence in the south. This regional disparity underscores differing political landscapes and voter preferences, potentially shaping the dynamics of the upcoming general elections.

A significant aspect of the situation is the BJP’s consolidation of the Hindutva narrative, often riding infrastructure development at the cost of neglect of crucial social sectors like healthcare and education. The party’s focus on cash transfer policies in specific states, targeting populations like women in the MP; so called aspirational social security programmes like bank accounts, a gas cylinder or a toilet (mush of it remains to be verified though) as a national strategy while leaving health and education at the mercy of the market; reflects a strategic approach to sway voter allegiance.

The BJP’s victories in Chhattisgarh, MP, and Rajasthan signal continued control of the Hindi heartland, showcasing the party’s ability to sway voter sentiment in its favour.

The centralisation trend within the BJP, notably with the selection of less prominent chief ministers in the aftermath (one of them is a first time legislator) compared to previous incumbents, emphasises a more Modi-centric and centralised party structure. This shift mirrors a trajectory similar to the leadership models seen in countries like China, Russia and Turkey, raising concerns about individual-centric autocratic regimes. For many a Modi supporter, states and individuals don’t matter because as the slogan goes: “Modi ki guarantee hai” (Its Modi’s guarantee) describing a state of governance which is also centralised now. No wonder within days of the results, the Supreme Court has given its approval to the current regime by legitimising the scrapping of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. Within days, the government has gone ahead with introducing and passing new bills that significantly weaken the power of the Election Commission. All this is happening with the national elections barely a few months away.

What do we have against this centralised Modi-fied persona of the BJP? A possible alternative not just of cobbling together of all opposition parties that came under the umbrella of the INDIA, but presenting an alternative politics of a federal state and diverse decision making, which would be the true aspiration of a democratic state. This political landscape underscores not only the complexity of regional sentiments and voter dynamics but also the challenges and opportunities ahead for India’s democratic fabric.

The opposition’s inability to unite and present a strong front, especially with Congress’ failure in this regard at this crucial juncture, has increased risks to Indian democracy.

In the lead-up to the general elections, these outcomes highlight the need for a cohesive opposition strategy to counterbalance the BJP’s influence. The broader implications rest on the ability of opposition parties to collaborate effectively, providing a robust alternative vision for India’s future governance.

The writer has been in the development sector for more than a decade. He currently works with an international non-governmental organisation based in Delhi. He may be reached at: avinashcold@gmail.com