ehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan has launched its electoral campaign and will be participating in the upcoming general elections.

This was announced by its chairman, Maulana Saad Hussain Rizvi, while addressing a crowd that had congregated at Bangla Gogera in PP-192, Okara, at the call of TLP candidate Chaudhry Shan Hotcha.

Rizvi informed the gathering that the TLP’s preparations for the general elections were in full swing. He said the party was ready to field candidates in most constituencies. He also called on the caretaker government to provide a level playing field to all the parties contesting the polls.

Speaking of economic conditions, Rizvi said that the common man was suffering because of backbreaking inflation, particularly the skyrocketing prices of basic commodities and petroleum products, as well as the worsening law and order situation.

TLP in numbers

The party, founded by Khadim Hussain Rizvi in 2015, came to limelight in 2018 elections when it emerged as the fifth largest party in Pakistan, securing 2.2 million votes in the general elections.

While the TLP was unable to win any seats in the National Assembly, it clinched three seats in the Sindh Assembly in the 2018 polls.

TLP in the upcoming elections

This time, with the party’s position unclear, its outlook is uncertain.

Mubasher Bukhari, the veteran security analyst, points out, “…compared to 2018, the TLP seems to be in a tough spot. In 2018, it enjoyed the support of powerful quarters. Also, its charismatic leader and founder Maulana Khadim Hussain Rizvi was around.”

“The late Rizvi was quite a crowd puller. He knew how to appeal to religious sentiments. He also wielded street power, meaning people actually came out to cast votes for him,” says Bukhari.

“However, the winds seem to be blowing against the TLP with Rizvi’s son, Saad, at the helm. The powerful quarters are not interested in the party. Maulana Saad Rizvi might not garner as much support as his father did,” says Bukhari.

Bukhari also rules out the possibility of the party forming an alliance with the PML (N), unlike the BAP, the IPP and the MQM. “The TLP is not likely to enter an alliance with the PML (N) either. That may be because Mumtaz Qadri was hanged during Nawaz’s tenure,” says Bukhari, adding that if it formed such an alliance, the party would run the risk of alienating some of its voters.

“Drawing a comparison between the 2018 elections and the 2022 by-elections is a reasonable way to gauge where the TLP stands currently,” says Bukhari. “In 2018, the TLP had emerged as the third largest party in the Punjab with 1.9 million votes. On the other hand, in 2022’s by-elections held in the Punjab, the party clinched only five percent of the votes – a significant decline compared to 2018,” he elaborates.

“Moreover, after the death of party supremo, Maulana Khadim Rizvi, the TLP split into several factions, including a splinter group led by Asif Ashraf Jalali and another by Ijaz Ashrafi. This has further weakens its position,” says Bukhari.

Senior columnist Peer Muhammad Ziaul Haq Naqshbandi broadly agrees with Bukhari. “The TLP is not likely to outperform other religious parties in the general elections of 2024. Unlike parties such as the Jamaet-i-Islami and Jamiat Ulma-i Islam (Fazl), the TLP has shown little flexibility. It may get some votes due to its narrative but it seems very unlikely that it will win any seats in the polls,” he says.

Naqshbandi also says that the party is not facing victimization or oppression. “It has not been a threat to anyone… therefore, it is not being targeted,” he says.

Recently, when the death anniversary of Maulana Khadim Hussain Rizvi was observed in Lahore, many of his supporters gathered in the city to pay him homage.

The author works for The News. He can be contacted at sherali9984@gmail.com