ollowing a recent policy shift, the deportation of undocumented Afghan citizens residing in Pakistan got under way in the first week of November. The forced repatriation has had a significant impact on the socio-economic landscape in some areas, including Balochistan.

Most of the undocumented refugees identified for forced repatriation are Pashtun. Many of them had integrated with the local Pashtun communities in the province. Their forced departure has not only disrupted their lives but also those of the communities that had embraced them.

The Hazara community in Balochistan, which had seen an increase in their numbers following the August 2021 takeover of Kabul by the Taliban administration, is facing a crisis of its own. Many Hazaras, similarly undocumented and fearing a crackdown have left for Afghanistan. The exodus has aggravated the fear among the Hazara people who had fled oppression by Afghan Taliban only to face a new set of uncertainties.

Quetta, which has had a large Afghan refugee population, is particularly feeling the economic pinch. Some of the refugees were well embedded in the city’s economy, contributing significantly as both labourers and consumers. Their departure has led to a downturn in the business environment of the city. While some of Quetta’s citizens see the resulting drop in property values and rents as a silver lining, the overall sentiment is one of concern for the city’s economic future.

The situation in Chaman is stark. For the first time in seven decades, people are being stopped from crossing into Afghanistan without a passport. The passport requirement has disrupted not only businesses but also family connections. The early response has been a sit-in protest that has gone on for 18 days. Tens of thousands of participants have registered their protest against the introduction of a visa requirement. So far, attempts to disperse the protesters have failed.

The social impact of the deportations is perhaps more profound. Some of the Afghans now leaving the country have been a part of the society for many year. Many have married here and developed community ties. The exodus has resulted in not just a logistical challenge but also a social upheaval.

Reactions to the deportation drive have been mixed.

Quetta, which has a large Afghan refugee population, is particularly feeling the economic pinch. The refugees were deeply embedded in the city’s economy, contributing significantly as both labourers and consumers. Their departure has led to a downturn in the business environment of the city.

Danish Murad, a journalist based in Quetta, says: “I have been told that the exodus of Afghan refugees will significantly affect Quetta. However, I have not noticed any difference. It seems that things remain as they were.”

Hidayatullah, a fabric merchant at a shopping centre in Quetta, says: “Previously in the first week of the month, we had loads of people coming for shopping. After the deportations announcement, our shops have been deserted. There are no Afghan customers.”

Theoretically, the disruption can lead to stress on cross-border kinships, a decline in the cultural and social capital that refugees contribute to host communities and a potential destabilisation of local economies that had adapted to include the labour and commerce of the refugee population.

Baloch nationalist parties, which have previously voiced strong opposition to the presence of Afghan refugees, have remained silent on the issue. In the build-up to the 2017 census, there was a strong campaign by BNP-Mengal to ensure that Afghan refugees were not counted. Their silence his time around is seen as a strategic move to avoid being associated with the deportations.

There have been allegations that a large number of Afghans have been issued Pakistani identity cards. It has been suggested that in the next phase, such cards will be blocked and cancelled. If that happens, it can lead to a huge problem because some local citizens may also be affected. This poses a significant challenge, as it could inadvertently affect Pakistani citizens in Balochistan. The government needs to tread carefully on this issue.

The events unfolding in Balochistan following the deportation of some Afghan refugees underscore the intricate interplay between politics, society and economy. The need for a careful and humane approach is paramount to prevent further disruption to the lives of both the Afghan refugees and the citizens of Balochistan.

The author, based in Islamabad, is a contributing writer for Nikkei Asia. He tweets at @iAdnanAamir