lthough all major political parties, except the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf, claimed that the 2018 elections were rigged and disputed their results, the results made the PTI the largest party in the country. It managed to form governments at the federal level and in two provinces – the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the Punjab, the PTI had won 123 National Assembly seats – almost 100 more than it had won in the 2013 election. The results were particularly unacceptable to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, which had been ruling the province for nearly three decades and seemed to have retained most of its popular support.

The PTI has posed a serious challenge to the PML-N in the recent past although it failed to deliver effective governance under its chief minister, Sardar Usman Buzdar. The PTI leadership in the Punjab watched with concern as support for the party witnessed a sharp decline during the Buzdar regime. The tide seemed to have turned, however, following the historic no-confidence motion against former prime minister Imran Khan. Khan’s aggressive campaign against ‘conspirators,’ including ‘foreign powers,’ which he alleged, had ousted him from power, took his popularity to new heights.

The current political scenario in the Punjab is very complex. The PML-N had wanted to delay the elections until Nawaz Sharif returned to the country to re-energise the party, which had lost ground after joining the Pakistan Democratic Movement government. However, the party is still not sure how voters are going to respond in the upcoming elections.

The PTI’s troubles are not likely to go away any time soon. The Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party, the new kid on the block, is still struggling to claim the status of a regular political party even though many of the electables formerly in the PTI have joined it. The Pakistan Peoples Party is making all out efforts to gain support of some bigwigs in southern Punjab. However, these efforts have been futile.

The rifts among the Chaudhrys of Gujrat have divided the family. In the previous elections, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) had won 10 seats in the provincial assembly, paving the way for the PTI to form the government in the largest province of the country. Since then, Chaudhry Parvez Elahi and Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain have parted ways. Having merged his faction of the PML-Q with the PTI, Chaudhry Parvez has become president of the PTI-Punjab. This falling out among family members threatens to divide their stronghold in Gujrat and the areas where they have been winning parliamentary seats on account of personal influence.

Many party leaders have either quit politics or joined the newly-launched Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party led by Jahangir Tareen. The IPP has welcomed all PTI dissidents to its fold in the hope apparently that they still command support of the voters in the absence of Imran Khan, considered unlikely to be freed ahead of or during the elections.

Some PTI leaders still claim that if the next elections are free and fair, they can make a clean sweep in the Punjab. However, many party leaders have either quit politics or joined the newly-launched Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party led by Jahangir Tareen. The IPP has welcomed all the PTI dissidents in the hope apparently that they still command support of voters in the absence of Imran Khan, who is considered unlikely to be freed before or during the elections. This is the biggest challenge for the PTI leadership. They are completely dependent on their chief. After the elections, the IPP is likely to join the PML-N to form the next government.

Replying to a query whether the PTI would be allowed to take part in the electoral process, Prime Minster Anwarul Haq Kakar recently said that there was no ban on the PTI. He said people loyal to the PTI chairman, Imran Khan, could contest the upcoming elections. Kakar pointed out that the Election Commission of Pakistan had not imposed a ban on the PTI. He said his caretaker government had no authority to ban a political party and that such a step would be “illegal and unconstitutional.”

However, the sentiment on the ground tells a different story. Many aspirants for parliamentary positions who had previously been seen as candidates for PTI tickets have grown reluctant. Some of them have been seeking advice from ‘knowledgeable’ friends on whether they should contest elections or stay away from the arena this time round.

Several political parties have alleged that the PML-N is being favoured by the caretakers and demanded a level playing field for the election campaign.

Just as the PTI was rumoured ahead of 2018 elections to be the establishment’s favourite, the word this time around is that the PML-N is set to return to power.

Most political workers and academics are saying that all political players, including the PTI, must be allowed to participate freely in the upcoming elections. If this does not happen, they say, the PTI supporters will be alienated, which may be detrimental to the cause of democracy.

The writer is a senior broadcast journalist. He has worked with several news channels in Pakistan