s general elections draw nearer, the political temperature in Balochistan is rising. Key political players have started mobilising their resources and supporters to set the stage for electoral success in the forthcoming general elections. The political landscape is currently dominated by chessboard moves - rallies and long marches - by some electables.

The electable politicians - those capable of winning elections irrespective of party affiliation - are making some strategic moves. Most of them are aligning themselves with parties that appear poised to form the next government in Islamabad. The recent moves by Nawab Aslam Raisani, Amanullah Notezai and Zafar Zehri, who have joined the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (Fazl) are an example of this. Zahoor Buledi, Arif Muhammad Hassani and Saleem Khosa have since pledged allegiance to the Pakistan Peoples Party. However, there is also a view that the odds now favor the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz. Consequently, a significant number of former MPAs from the Balochistan Awami Party are considering the party. Some of them sent their supporters to PML-N’s rally in Lahore to welcome Nawaz Sharif.

People are carefully watching the actions of key leaders like Jam Kamal, the former chief minister, seen as a contender for the office of chief minister following the elections. His meetings with leaders from both the PPP and the PML-N have added to the suspense. Such maneuvering is not rare in Balochistan, where politics is often dominated by influential individuals rather than party ideologies.

This unique political dynamic, where electables hold significant sway, has led to fragile party structures in the province. Politicians frequently switch allegiances, often considering the prevailing political climate and perceived opportunities. The current inclination towards the PML-N is a clear example of this. Many believe that the party is on a trajectory to return to power. However, this frequent shifting of loyalties has eroded the trust of the general public.

As elections approach, most of the local politicians do not appear to be worried about their track record. Instead, they are focused on their choice of the party they are to join. If they make the right call and join the party that forms the next government, they will be comfortably in power, possibly for five years. They will protect them from accountability from their voters – the underlying assumption in electoral democracy. No wonder, the process has failed to deliver resolution of the problems faced by the common man.

Meanwhile, another narrative is emerging with Sardar Akhtar Mengal, the former chief minister president of the Balochistan National Party, choosing the path of agitation. Sardar Mengal first organised a long-march from Wadh to Quetta and then staged a sit-in in Islamabad. Many in Balochistan have viewed this as an attempt to rejuvenate his party’s influence, especially after supporting the government of Quddus Biznejo, the BAP chief minister. Mengal’s actions, leveraging the current political unrest, aim to regain and cement his party’s vote bank.

The leading political parties of Pakistan have never invested in Balochistan. They have always relied on the electables to fill their ranks. No national-level political party has grassroots political structure in the province.

At the grassroots, there is hope as well as scepticism and frustration. Muhammad Khalid, a university student says: “The political system in Balochistan works for the elite. The poor have no say in it and no way of breaking in. It does not matter to them who joins which party. The outcome will be the same for the poor. There will be no development in Balochistan.”

Sania Khan, a school teacher based in Quetta, says: “Protest demonstrations by political parties on a routine basis result in closures of roads and disruption of daily life. This has made life difficult for us. There is nothing to be gained from these protests. I am disappointed with all the political parties in Balochistan.”

The political landscape of Balochistan is intricate and multifaceted. The province has vast natural resources and strategic importance. However, it has always been a battleground for power politics. Pressing issues of conflict, underdevelopment and lack of effective representation remain unaddressed. Routine political activities, while significant, do little to address these core issues. The province needs leaders who can look beyond personal gains and work for the welfare of its people.

Unfortunately, the leading political parties of Pakistan have never invested in Balochistan. They have always relied on the electables to fill their ranks. No national-level party has a grassroots political structure in Balochistan. This favours the electables who can leverage their position to dictate their terms while joining the national-level parties. As cuh, leaders of the national-level political parties also share the blame for empowering the electables at the cost of a sustainable democratic process.

In a broader context, Balochistan’s political dynamics are reflective of the challenges faced by all emerging democracies. The province, despite its unique socio-political fabric, serves as a microcosm of the larger political landscape of Pakistan. The frequent shifts in political allegiances, the dominance of a few influential families and the lack of robust party structures are challenges that need to be addressed.

As the political chess game in Balochistan intensifies, the province stands at a crossroads. While most of the electables are likely to join the PML-N, others may opt for the PPP or the JUI-F. The real challenge, however, lies not in political affiliations but in addressing the longstanding issues that plague the province. Balochistan awaits genuine leadership that can bring about meaningful change and ensure a brighter, more prosperous future for its people.

The author, based in Islamabad, is a contributing writer for Nikkei Asia. He tweets at @iAdnanAamir.