n a period marked by unparalleled environmental challenges, the threat of global climate change looms ominously, casting a shadow over geopolitical dynamics and national security.

As temperatures rise and weather patterns shift, the contours of the climate change crisis have become increasingly apparent, heralding far-reaching consequences that transcend traditional boundaries.

From the melting ice caps at the poles to the parched landscapes of drought-stricken regions, climate change knows no borders, making it a quintessential global predicament.

It is in this global context that we turn our gaze to Pakistan, a nation whose complex geography and socio-economic conditions render it acutely vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Pakistan wrestles with a unique set of climatic challenges. Its sprawling geography encompasses soaring mountain ranges, arid deserts and fertile plains; each susceptible to the unpredictable whims of a changing climate. In this dynamic and diverse landscape, climate-induced changes reverberate through society, disrupting established norms and exacerbating security concerns.

The climate change canvas in Pakistan is not merely a story of shifting weather patterns; it is also a tale of human movement and migration driven by the imperatives of survival.

An analytical perspective is directed towards examining the potential of climate-induced migration within Pakistan, unveiling an intricate array of causes and their resulting effects.

The causes of migration range from crop failure, increased flooding, droughts and water scarcity to a higher frequency of extreme weather events, uprooting communities from their homes. The consequences extend far beyond the act of moving; they encompass the challenge of integrating displaced populations into new areas, straining resources and sometimes fuelling political and security-related strains. Importantly, climate-induced migration transcends domestic boundaries. We must also address displacement across borders, which can have far-reaching geopolitical implications.

Climate change also extends its tendrils into the realm of security.

A careful examination reveals that climate change serves as a catalyst, exacerbating existing security and political challenges. Political conflicts over resources, including water and arable land, take on new dimensions as resources become more scarce due to climatic shifts. Disputes regarding water distribution among provinces, particularly between upstream and downstream, stem from inherent structural limitations tied to the dynamics of these areas and the specific geophysical attributes of the system.

The contentious discussions surrounding substantial dam projects are not solely centred on the water itself but rather revolve around conflicting developmental perspectives and the scale at which politics and challenges are approached—whether it be at a national, local, or regional level.

On a community level, water tends to serve as a tool in conflicts rather than the primary instigator. It becomes a weapon in disputes relating to political loyalties, family matters, caste affiliations and more. Frequently, the state inadvertently or purposefully enables more influential entities through both actions and inaction.

Floods in Pakistan, particularly those impacting Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh, followed a significant increase in rainfall, causing widespread devastation. Displacement, loss of livelihoods and disrupted education lead to identity and socio-economic challenges for affected communities.

Climate disasters strain state resources, exacerbating poverty, unemployment, violence against women and human trafficking risks. Additionally, military resources diverted to humanitarian and disaster relief activities can impact border protection.

The multifaceted impacts of extreme weather events across various sectors collectively threaten Pakistan’s comprehensive national security. The need for a comprehensive approach to prioritising climate security is evident, as the National Security Policy has not adequately addressed this urgent concern.

Population displacement, driven by climate-induced factors, intensifies pressures on already fragile regions, igniting conflicts and endangering vulnerable communities. Such security ramifications extend beyond national borders and have profound implications for regional stability.

Pakistan’s involvement in global climate negotiations has remained rudimentary and often inconsequential, despite being a signatory to the Paris Agreement and its significant climate-related challenges.

While it is important to acknowledge the historical context of climate inequality, with post-colonial perspectives and calls for climate reparations, the current leadership bears the responsibility to establish a substantial presence in shaping climate action at both the national and, should it become relevant, international levels.

A critical assessment of Pakistan’s participation reveals a nuanced interplay between the nation’s interests and global climate goals.

As we delve into this dynamic, we uncover a multifaceted narrative. Pakistan, like many developing countries, seeks to balance the imperatives of economic growth and climate resilience. Its demands for climate justice and equity echo the voices of nations historically marginalised in the global climate discourse.

The alignment between Pakistan’s national interests and global climate goals is thus a nuanced endeavour, influenced by a myriad of factors, including the nation’s vulnerabilities, aspirations and lack of agency or proper policies.

Climate-induced security challenges transcend national borders, necessitating regional collaboration.

In the context of South Asia, where shared resources and interconnected vulnerabilities abound, the importance of regional cooperation cannot be overstated. The potential for knowledge sharing, technology transfer and joint mitigation efforts holds promise.

We must also grapple with historical tensions, political rivalries and resource disputes that have hindered effective regional cooperation. The delicate balance between these opportunities and challenges will shape the future of climate-induced security responses in South Asia.

International agreements and partnerships represent an essential dimension of the climate change and security discourse in the South Asian context.

Charting a course towards climate resilience and security, the formulation of evidence-based policy proposals becomes paramount. The interconnectedness of climate change with economic stability, societal well-being and national security necessitates policies that transcend silos.

Within this context, we propose the formation of advocacy coalitions, a convergence of policymakers, scientists and civil society actors. Such coalitions have the potential to be dynamic drivers of evidence-based policymaking, fostering collaboration and ensuring that policy responses are nuanced, effective and adaptive. Through these coalitions for climate-security, the stakeholders in Pakistan, cognizant of the security risks posed by climate change, can get the space to step up and work towards creating a climate-security framework.

The fusion of climate considerations with national security strategies is a linchpin of resilience in the face of climate-induced security challenges. By weaving climate factors into the fabric of security planning, nations can preemptively identify vulnerabilities, mitigate risks and harness opportunities for innovation. However, this endeavour necessitates expertise and collaboration. Advocacy coalitions emerge once again as pivotal actors, this time comprising security experts, environmentalists and climate scientists. Their collective efforts can promote the seamless integration of climate considerations into security strategies, bridging knowledge gaps and fostering cross-disciplinary dialogues.

Challenges posed by climate change and security are not confined to national borders; they demand a collective global response. In this regard, the imperative of international cooperation and multilateral action assumes paramount significance.

We underscore the role of advocacy coalitions on the international stage, not merely as proponents of climate security agendas but also as drivers of meaningful change. These coalitions possess the capacity to amplify voices and catalyse action, pushing for policies and agreements that transcend geopolitical rivalries.

We encourage Pakistan to actively participate in or initiate advocacy coalitions with like-minded nations, strengthening its position in global climate diplomacy and security discussions. Through such collaboration, nations can harness their collective wisdom, resources and influence to build climate resilience and security on a global scale.

As we stand on the precipice of profound transformations, we are reminded that the luxury of time is a commodity we no longer possess. The hour is late, and the risks are rising. It is incumbent upon nations, communities and individuals to act in unison across boundaries and divisions to forge a path toward resilience and security.

It is vital to emphasise the shared duty of the international community in tackling climate-induced security challenges, affecting not only Pakistan but nations globally. The interlinked nature of our world implies that the fallout of inactivity will extend well past individual national boundaries. The responsibility must be distributed fairly and it’s crucial for the world to acknowledge that no nation, regardless of its scale or influence, can effectively address this crisis in solitude.

A united future can only be achieved through collaboration cooperation, and a resolute commitment to collective well-being.

The writer is a project manager with Idara-i-Taleem-o-Agahi