ld habits, goes a popular adage, die hard. Nawaz Sharif, the three-time former prime minister of Pakistan, has returned from exile and is seen bidding once again to regain power. Sharif’s political fortunes in the past have been linked mostly to his relations with the establishment. Every time he became the prime minister, collusion with some kingmakers was alleged. However, every time he was thrown out of power by the same establishment and not allowed to complete his stipulated term. Some of his political rivals are again accusing him of having made a secret deal with the establishment to end his exile. They also predict that he will be thrown out of power again before he completes the next term.

So has Nawaz Sharif learnt anything from his experience? Does his political journey hold any indicators?

Sharif entered politics in 1976 when he joined the Pakistan Muslim League. His family had been opposed to the nationalisation policy of former prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto under which it had lost control of its flagship steel plants. Later, under Lt-Gen Ghulam Jilani Khan, the then military governor of the Punjab, he was appointed as the provincial finance minister.

Jilani also supported his election as chief minister of the Punjab despite some resistance from the then prime minister, Muhammad Khan Junejo following the 1985 party-less elections. Subsequently, he built ties with senior army generals. When assemblies were dissolved in 1988, he was retained as the Punjab chief minister.

Gen Zia’s death in 1988 was followed by a split in his party i.e., PML (Pagara) into two factions. Sharif joined the Fida group against Junejo’s PML-J, which later became known as the JIP. These two parties, along with seven other right-wing conservative and religious parties, united allegedly with facilitation from the Inter Services Intelligence to form the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad to contest elections against the Pakistan Peoples Party led by Benazir Bhutto. The IJI gained a majority in the Punjab and Sharif was re-elected chief minister in 1988.

In 1990, Sharif became the head of the IJI as well as the 12^th prime minister of Pakistan. However, he developed differences with three successive army chiefs – Gen Mirza Aslam Beg, Gen Asif Nawaz Janjua and Gen Abdul Waheed Kakar – on various issues including Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War. As a result of souring ties, he was ousted from power through the president, Ghulam Ishaq Khan. However, Sharif returned to his office after the Supreme Court set aside the president’s order. The tug of war over authority and influence between Sharif and the establishment ended with Sharif’s resignation and Khan’s removal as president.

Sharif won a two-thirds majority in the 1997 parliamentary elections. His Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz formed governments in the Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Azad Jammu and Kashmir. His popularity peaked when Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in May 1998 in response to similar tests by India. Following disputes with the establishment, he asserted his authority by compelling the chief of army staff, Gen Jehangir Karamat, to resign three months before the end of his term. Gen Pervez Musharraf was then promoted and appointed the COAS. However, Musharraf overthrew the government in October 1999 after Sharif tried to remove Musharraf over the Kargil War and replace him with Gen Ziaud Din. King Fahd of Saudi Arabia and US President Bill Clinton reportedly facilitated an agreement to provide safe passage for Sharif subject to a ten year exile.

In August 2007, Sharif made an unsuccessful attempt to return to Pakistan after the Supreme Court allowed him to return. He returned in November 2007 despite opposition from Musharraf. This was the beginning of the end for Musharraf, who resigned in August 2008.

Sharif became prime minister for a third time after securing a simple majority in the 2013 elections. However, he was removed from office by the Supreme Court in the so-called Panama Papers case. The removal has been attributed to a souring of relations between Sharif and the then COAS Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa. Sharif was also disqualified from holding public office. He was later sentenced to ten years in prison by an accountability court that convicted him of corruption. In 2019, he left for London after securing bail on medical grounds. Political rivals have alleged that the ‘escape’ was facilitated by the establishment following a deal despite stiff resistance from then prime minister, Imran Khan.

After spending four years in exile, Sharif has returned again in a bid to regain power. His rivals allege that his return has been facilitated under a secret deal with the establishment. Based on his past record, some analysts have suggested that even if he is re-elected as prime minister, he will not complete his term.

It is hard to say whether Sharif has learnt from his experience.

The writer has a PhD in history from Shanghai University. He is a lecturer at GCU, Faisalabad, and a research fellow at the PIDE, Islamabad. He can be reached at mazharabbasgondal87@gmail.com. His X handle: @MazharGondal87