he Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz supremo is back. He is enjoying the freedom of movement and there is an impression among some of his supporters that after the general elections, due in 2024, he will be elected prime minister for the fourth time. His party is flexing its muscle in the hope of forming the next elected government even if he is kept out of the electoral run. An important question here is whether or not Sharif – or a prime minister representing his party – will get a full tenure.

Sharif has thrice lost the premiership, in 1990, 1999 and 2017, after relations with the powerful establishment became unpleasant. Before ending his self-exile this time, he tried to project a narrative of holding accountable those he alleged had conspired against the elected government in 2017. Surprisingly, that narrative was soon dropped.

Some recent developments and indicators suggest that he may be the next prime minister. Many expect the courts to suspend his conviction in Al Azizia Mills and Avenfield Apartments cases, hear his appeals, exonerate him and allow him to contest the elections. Even though nothing is ever certain in Pakistani politics, the odds appear to be stacked in his favour.

He appeared to be enjoying official protocol even when he departed from London where Pakistan’s high commissioner bade him a warm farewell. When he landed in Islamabad, his lawyers approached him to obtain his signatures on some documents and state officials took his biometrics at the airport lounge. The same day, he was granted a protective bail. Next, he flew to Lahore, where a helicopter was waiting to take him to Lahore Fort from where he was driven to Minar-i-Pakistan to address a public rally. On Monday, the caretaker Punjab cabinet exercised its powers under Section 401 of the Criminal Procedural Code to suspend his prison sentences in the two cases.

In his first address to his supporters at the Minar-i-Pakistan grounds, Nawaz Sharif came up with a three-fold narrative. First, he said he did not want revenge from anybody. This was understood to mean that he had dropped/ deferred his demand for accountability of former judges and generals who he has said had conspired to remove him from his office as prime minister. Second, he pledged to work with all parties for the economic revival of the country. Third, he urged all stakeholders to work together for the supremacy of the constitution and to strengthen democracy. He is expected to adopt economic revival as his principal narrative for the election campaign.

Before returning to Pakistan, Sharif had visited Saudi Arabia, staying there for a few days and meeting important Saudi leaders. He is understood to have discussed economic issues and future ventures with them. He had also visited Dubai and held meetings with some members of its ruling family. There was some speculation that he had been asked by the military leadership to undertake these visits. Equally plausibly, he could have come up with the idea himself to send a signal to the military leadership that he had the capacity to rescue the country from its economic crises.

PML-N insiders tell The News on Sunday that “There is no deal. However, the military leaders seem to have sensed that Nawaz Sharif is currently the only leader who can take Pakistan towards economic stability.”

It is said that the then prime minister Shahbaz Sharif had nominated Syed Asim Munir for the office of army chief after thoroughly discussing his options with his elder brother and that the COAS is aware of that. “Gen Asim Munir and Nawaz Sharif are on the same page about Pakistan’s development and prosperity,” a PML-N stalwart says.

However, the country’s political history shows that such considerations do not guarantee the longevity of an elected government. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had famously handpicked Gen Zia-ul Haq, and Nawaz Sharif had appointed Gen Pervez Musharraf as the army chief in 1998 and Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa in November 2016. Former prime minister Imran Khan had granted an extension in service to Gen Bajwa in January 2020 and was seen to be on the same page with him. In all these cases, the prime ministers were to later accuse the army chiefs of conspiring to remove them from their office.

Rival political leaders are now saying that Nawaz Sharif is being facilitated as a part of a deal between the establishment and the PML-N. Some PPP leaders have started labelling Nawaz Sharif as laadla plus (beyond favourite). They contend that the establishment is giving a vast political space to the PML-N at the expense of other parties.

Some PML-N leaders deny that. “Mian Nawaz Sharif is not getting any favour; it is only delayed justice. He has suffered long on account of the false conviction,” says Talal Chaudhry.

Ishaq Dar, the former finance minister and a close aide to Nawaz Sharif, has said, “We have not struck any deal; we do not believe in secret deals.”

The completion of the next elected prime minister’s tenure remains a hope rather than a certainty. Should Nawaz Sharif become the prime minister and manage to retain his office, he will be appointing a new army chief in 2025.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher