awaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan on October 21, has had positive as well as negative impacts on Pakistani politics. Its most positive impact was on his party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, for which the elder Sharif’s return has proved a major confidence and morale booster. The PML-N had manifested a confidence-deficit in its working during the four years of his stay in London. Shahbaz Sharif kept the party going but he was unable to fill the vacuum caused by Nawaz Sharif’s departure. Maryam Nawaz was more successful in attracting the crowd to the PML-N public meetings. However, her aggressive leadership style alienated some senior party leaders who did not agree with her politics, especially, her hardline statements. Some mid-level PML-N leaders found the party situation suitable for securing a prominent role by showing their loyalty to Nawaz Sharif and issuing rude statements about their political rivals.

Nawaz Sharif’s return has made it possible for the PML-N to tackle its internal incoherence and ambiguities. It also provides an opportunity to strengthen the role of the leadership in the party and cope with below-the-surface tensions in the party. His role will be critical to the articulation of new political ideas and the political direction of the party in view of the forthcoming general elections. While Nawaz Sharif was already attending to some of these issues while in London, his presence in the country makes it easier to address these to his full satisfaction.

The PML-N leaders and activists demonstrated their organisational capacity by bringing in people even from some remote areas of the Punjab and from other provinces for a public rally on the day of his arrival in Lahore. The top PML-N leaders had directed former parliamentarians and other ambitious party activists to bring in people from their constituencies and bear the cost of transport and other needs.

A negative dimension of this practice is the increased role of money in politics and the prominence of wealthier leaders, who can afford to spend money on such activities. The influence of moneyed business and commercial elite, some observe, is more noticeable in the PML-N than in other political parties; although other political parties also have moneyed backers. This has pushed back ideological workers who cannot afford to spend money for the party. In fact, making funds available voluntarily for party activities is one of the ways to obtain direct access to the leadership. This gives leverage to such affluent people to influence party decisions, including distribution of patronage, nomination of local and district level office bearers and awarding of party ticket for elections. An interesting part is how these moneyed people compete with one another to influence party decisions.

Nawaz Sharif faces a host of issues after his homecoming. These have implications for the PML-N and Pakistan’s politics. First, the Islamabad High Court facilitated his return by granting him exemption from arrest on arrival. However, he still faces two accountability courts convictions dating back to July and December 2018, and a non-compliance of the bail conditions case from 2019. He has approached the Islamabad High Court for filing appeals relating to these issues. The outcome of this legal exercise will influence political options that are going to be available to Nawaz Sharif.

Second, he faces the gigantic task of neutralising the negative fall out of the poor performance of the PML-N-led Pakistan Democratic Movement federal government under Shahbaz Sharif. The PML-N often described the 2018 elections as the most bogus electoral exercise that went on to create a National Assembly whose credentials, according to the PML-N, were false. However, when the vote of no-confidence sailed through against then prime minister Imran Khan, the PML-N did not think for a minute about its claims regarding the National Assembly, and Shahbaz Sharif took over as prime minster with a vote and endorsement from the same assembly.

Inflation and price hikes of essential commodities during the sixteen months of the PDM rule have hit the common person so hard that the PML-N is faced with increasingly alienated masses. How can Nawaz Sharif cope with this alienation and frustration among the people?

Third, the 18 to 35 years age group constitutes a substantial part of the voters. The availability of and access to social media and the mobilisation by Imran Khan till the events of May 9-10 have made them more aware of the happenings in Pakistani politics over the year. The politics before and after May 9 has influenced their political orientation. The PML-N faces the challenge of mitigating their alienation from the present-day political situation and winning them over. If they come out on the polling day to vote, they can influence the outcome to a significant extent.

Fourth, how does one make sure that the next elections, if held in January, are fair and free and provide equal opportunity to all political parties? This brings in the current legal and administrative onslaught on the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf. If the current pattern of arrest, detention and criminal proceedings continues unabated, how can equal opportunity elections be ensured?

Fifth, the PML-N’s relationship with the establishment will also influence the future direction of Pakistani politics. In the past, Nawaz Sharif has pursued divergent approaches towards the establishment. At times, he has worked in harmony with them, rising to power through their facilitation. At other times, he has criticised the establishment. However, he has not persisted in his criticism of the establishment. Will he join hands with the establishment now to keep the PTI out or take an autonomous position?

Sixth, how will Nawaz Sharif address the succession question in the PML-N? He appears to be inclined towards his daughter, Maryam. The autonomous leadership prospects of Shahbaz Sharif have been undermined by the poor performance of the PDM government and the brief, politically chaotic, tenure of Hamza Shahbaz as the Punjab chief minister.

Nawaz Sharif’s return has no doubt provided an opportunity for the political revival of the PML-N. Most party activists are confident that the party will return to power after the next elections because the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is weak in the Punjab and the PTI is bogged down in legal fallout of the May 9 agitation. This optimism needs to be punctuated with realism. Much will depend on how Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N address the above questions and whether elections are held without further delay.

The writer is a political analyst. His X handle: @har132har