ncredibly, Pakistan Muslim League supremo Nawaz Sharif is on the verge of another political comeback. Only a few years ago, all the odds (political as well as legal) were stacked against him and this would have been difficult to believe.

However, the three-time prime minister has many challenges ahead of him. These include coming up with a popular narrative to counter Imran Khan and regain his lost vote bank. He also needs several courts to rule in his favour and to be found eligible for public office.

Sharif, who became a key political figure after the 1988 elections, has a history of using unorthodox narratives to crush his political rivals.

In 1990, for example, he was the key leader of Islami Jamhoori Ittehad, an establishment-backed alliance of conservative political forces against the Pakistan Peoples Party. To attract Punjabi voters, he used aggressive Punjabi nationalism and came up with the slogan: Jag Punjabi jag, teri pag nun lag gaya dagh (Wake up Punjabi and heed the stain on your turban/ honour).

Sharif’s image was bolstered by massive coverage on the state-run media, Pakistan Television and almost all national newspapers. Following these elections, he became the prime minister for the first time.

In the 1997 elections, the PML-N used the anti-corruption slogan. PPP leaders, especially Shaheed Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari were then bearing the brunt of an organised media trial. The PML-N swept the polls with a two-thirds majority and formed the federal and all four provincial governments. Sharif became the premier for the second time.

In the wake of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, the PPP formed the government at the Centre in 2008. Nawaz was barred from contesting the 2008 elections on account of conviction for corruption.

He and his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif once again trotted out a corruption narrative against the PPP government alleging kickbacks in the setting up of independent power producers. Sharif also re-established his popularity by supporting and later using the movement for the restoration of former chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. The establishment also lent its support to the PML-N for the 2013 elections. Thanks to his narrative, Nawaz Sharif was elected prime minister for the third time.

Soon after coming to power, however, he ran afoul of the establishment. The powers that be then shifted their support to the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf.

Several cases were started against Sharif. He was convicted following marathon trials and disqualified for public office. In the cases prosecuted by the National Accountability Bureau, Sharif was convicted in the Al-Azizia Steel Mill and Avenfield Apartment cases.

Many PML-N leaders are confident that the League will win the elections and Nawaz Sharif will be elected prime minister for a fourth term. They believe that Imran Khan will be unable to contest the elections and lead the PTI campaign.

In the 2018 elections, he came up with a new narrative: Vote Ko Izzat Doe (Respect the ballot/ voter). However, the narrative was not sufficient to restore him to power.

Before the elections, the PML-N faced pressure from the establishment and several key party leaders left Nawaz and joined the PTI, which soon came into power.

The PML-N, during the PTI’s rule, kept up the Respect the Voter mantra and won most by-elections. However, the PML-N leaders gave up the narrative after Imran Khan was ousted through a no-confidence motion. This sent the PML-N’s popularity downhill.

A few weeks before his return, Sharif and his daughter, Maryam Nawaz, tried to throw up a new narrative: accountability of those who had conspired against Nawaz’s previous government and brought the PTI into power. However, Shahbaz Sharif and other PML-N veterans convinced them not to press the point. Instead, the party has now settled for an ‘economy first’ slogan. Only time will tell if the narrative can work for them.

Most PML-N leaders are confident that the League will win the elections and Nawaz Sharif will be elected prime minister for a fourth term. They expect the establishment to back them. They believe that Imran Khan will be unable to contest the elections and will not lead PTI campaign.

Sharif has a demonstrated capability to galvanise and attracting voters. Consider party organizations in southern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Balochistan are in a shambles, he will need outside help.

Looking back at his long political career, one can say that it will not be an easy journey. Sharif had come into power in 1990 with the help of former president Ghulam Ishaq Khan.

In 1997, then-president Farooq Leghari had developed a personal vendetta against the PPP leaders and helped him. However, this relationship soured soon and Sharif ousted the president and the then Chief Justice of Pakistan Sajjad Ali Shah. In October 1999, the then army chief, Gen Pevez Musharraf, deposed him in a military coup. Sharif was convicted, jailed and later exiled.

In 2007, he ended his exile and came back. His party formed the Punjab government in 2008. This helped Sharif reorganise and strengthen his party. He was elected prime minister for the third time following the 2013 elections. Soon, he developed differences with the then army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, picked for the job by Sharif himself. He was ousted, prosecuted and convicted. In 2019, he became critically ill while in jail and was allowed to go abroad for treatment.

While many in the PML-N believe that this time it will be a smooth ride for Sharif, politics in Pakistan have never been predictable. In not so distant a past, Sharifs and Zardari were in jail. Today, Imran Khan is behind bars. Who can rule out another reversal of fortunes?

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher