t’s finally official. That Nawaz Sharif plans to return to the country on October 21 has been confirmed by no less a person than Shahbaz Sharif, the former prime minister and party president. The party is now finalising plans for a grand welcome.

While Nawaz Sharif was away for around four years, he was never entirely out of touch as almost all major decisions in the party required his endorsement.

Public meetings are being held every other day apparently to sustain the hype ahead of what the party is promising will be a ‘mammoth’ public gathering at the Minar-i-Pakistan grounds. PMLN leaders, including Shahbaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz, have stepped up their efforts to woo voters. They are telling the people that only Nawaz Sharif can steer the country out of the crises it faces today.

“He (Nawaz) will start from where he left;” “He will sort out the economic mess;” “Nawaz Sharif will address all the problems faced by the masses, including inflation and unemployment;” “Nawaz will present the agenda for progress;” “Nawaz Sharif will bring hope to the country,” are the slogans through which party leaders are trying to build a momentum before he arrives in Lahore on October 21.

It seems, however, that the PMLN is in a fix in search of the most suitable narrative. The PMLN leaders are agreed that the party will have to pay a heavy price for leading the PDM government. Although they have tried to blame the PTI government for the economic mess, they realise that the narrative has not worked.

The anti-establishment narrative is apparently unacceptable under the circumstances. Nawaz tested the waters by launching a tirade against former generals and judges, promising to hold them accountable for ousting him from power in 2017. Shahbaz Sharif then had to rush back to London to persuade him that it was not the right time to take on the establishment again. He seems to have prevailed. Instead, Shahbaz Sharif has famously said: “Nawaz Sharif is not returning to seek revenge although everyone knows the culprits behind the wrongs done to him.”

Now, the party has decided that the revenge mantra has to be put on the back burner for now and that there needs to be focus on issues like economy and terrorism.

The PMLN is faced with a dilemma of political popularity. The party leaders believe that it has suffered politically and have pinned high hopes on the return of Nawaz Sharif, who they hope will help rejuvenate it before the next elections. An important question in this regard is: how will Nawaz Sharif get out of the court cases against him?

If the elections are held without further delay, as indicated by the Election Commission of Pakistan, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf is the party likely to pose the biggest challenge to Nawaz Sharif and his party in the Punjab. The recent efforts by the Pakistan Peoples Party to regain support in the Punjab have proved futile. Most of the independent ‘electables’ and PTI deserters have instead joined the newly-launched Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party headed by Jahangir Tareen. Both Tareen and Aleem Khan, the IPP president, have indicated they can work with Nawaz Sharif. If they win enough seats, the IPP can join hands with the PMLN after the elections and form governments both at national and the Punjab level.

Imran Khan, Nawaz Sharif’s arch rival, has been jailed but remains popular. Many PMLN leaders acknowledge that the tough economic decisions it took while in the government have dented its popularity. They also say that the PTI has benefitted from the situation. There has been speculation that the PMLN is afraid of going into elections due to the fallout of its having joined the PDM government and the absence of Nawaz Sharif from the political horizon.

The anti-establishment narrative has effectively been picked up by Imran Khan and the PTI who are also well placed to play the victim card. They are pointing out that one, Imran Khan was ousted from the government through a ‘conspiracy’; two, that the establishment is aligned against them; and three, that the entire leadership of the party has either been forced to part ways with the party or is behind bars.

There is buzz that efforts are being made to keep the PTI out of race on one pretext or the other. This, so far, is the only reassuring rumour for the PMLN.

Nawaz Sharif is going to face several challenges including the economic crises and the rise of terrorism along the Western border. In addition, he needs to find a way to regain the lost political space?

While PMLN leader Rana Sanaullah has claimed that Nawaz Sharif will present an ‘agenda of progress’ to the nation, it looks like there are no quick fixes available for the country’s many problems.

The writer is a senior broadcast journalist. He has worked with several news channels in Pakistan