he Pakistan Muslim League supremo, Nawaz Sharif, has started his much-anticipated journey back home, ending his second exile. But a tough challenge lies ahead: winning back his political support, which, arguably, was snatched through a well-coordinated plan ahead of the general elections in 2018.

On Wednesday, Sharif left his Avenfield Apartment in London and flew to Saudi Arabia for Umrah. He will stay there for a week. Then he will go to Dubai and is scheduled to reach Lahore on October 21 via a chartered flight. After landing he will be taken to Minar-i-Pakistan grounds where he will address his supporters and announce his plan to reform the economy.

The three-time prime minister was convicted in the Al-Azizia Steel Mill and Avenfield Apartment cases and sentenced to 10- and seven-years imprisonment, respectively. He was serving the sentence in Kot Lakhpat Jail in Lahore when in November 2019 the court permitted him to go to the UK for medical treatment. Instead, he spent four years there. PMLN leaders have kept telling people that he will return soon. Sharif’s four-year self-suffered exile, the PMLN leaders disconnect from the voters and the proximity of unpopular leaders close to the Sharifs have caused a deep dent in the PMLN support base in the Punjab. It even started losing elections after the ouster of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf. In other provinces too, the PMLN has lost its vivid presence.

Sensing the gravity of the situation, PMLN’s leadership has made some major decisions to motivate its supporters. One of those was the appointment of Maryam Nawaz as the PMLN chief organiser. The idea was that she was a crowd-puller. However, the decision proved counterproductive inasmuch as several senior leaders including former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and former Khyber Pakhtunkhwa chief minister Mehtab Abbasi expressed displeasure against the appointment. On the other hand, the country suffered the worst-ever inflation during the 16-month rule of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition with the PMLN in the driving seat. Shahbaz Sharif, then prime minister, in almost all of his speeches in the parliament and public gatherings, tried to tell the people that the faulty economic policies of the PTI government had driven the country to the brink of an economic collapse. A majority of the people did not buy the explanation. The killing inflation, hiked electricity tariffs and fuel prices massively damaged the PMLN support base. The supporters stopped responding to the party’s call. As a result, the PMLN lost several seats in the by-elections to the Punjab Assembly and the National Assembly. Repeat defeats set the alarm bells ringing for the PMLN. The situation forced the House of Sharif to find a solution to the problem, especially after the rival PTI was torn apart into splinter groups in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in the wake of the May 9 incidents. The solution they came up with was the return of Nawaz Sharif.

His younger brother, the former PM Shahbaz Sharif, announced the date for his return after meeting him in London. The elder Sharif issued several statements about the accountability of the former generals and judges of the Supreme Court for hatching a conspiracy to depose and disqualify him and imposing the PTI through election engineering. He might have believed that this narrative will be bought by the masses. However, it did not sit well with the powers. A clear message was reportedly sent to him through his younger brother that he would have to give up this narrative and failing that his smooth return couldn’t be guaranteed.

On the other hand, Maryam Nawaz launched a fresh round of mass contact with the PMLN supporters to prepare them for a “historic” welcome for her father. She addressed a couple of public gatherings in Lahore. Her opponents have pointed out that the crowds have been thin. However, a public rally at Thokar Niaz Baig in Lahore, organised by the PMLN Lahore chapter proved a morale booster for her, as president of the PMLN Lahore Saiful Malook Khokhar succeeded in putting up a good show. Surprisingly, after holding a successful event, the PMLN cancelled three other rallies scheduled before Sharif’s return.

The PMLN might accord a historic welcome to Sharif on his return. But for Nawaz Sharif, the challenge lies ahead. He has replaced his accountability-of-the-conspirators narrative with one of economic reforms. Sharif is likely to announce a road map to prosperity and a strong economy in his speech at Minar-i-Pakistan on October 21.

Will a majority of people believe in him and vote for his party? The answer may not be simple after all. If Nawaz Sharif depends on the establishment to win the next general elections, he will insult his previous narrative regarding sanctity of the vote – a political humiliation of sorts. If he makes only televised speeches, it might not get him the desired results in terms of attracting voters.

The only way forward for him is to reach his supporters in every nook and cranny of the country. He has to make another move that stuns his opponents. He has to demand that the PTI be allowed to contest the elections and its innocent activists should be released. Last but not least, he has to be accessible to party leaders at the ward and district level. This will restore and strengthen his image as a people’s leader. If, on the other hand, he continues to run the party through about a dozen aides from the cozy comfort of his drawing room, he should not expect wonders.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher