ixteen years ago, Nawaz Sharif, stood at Terminal Three of the Heathrow Airport, surrounded by passionate party loyalists, predominantly Punjabi supporters and a small band of Pakistani journalists. In London, mercury normally begins plummeting in September, trees start to turn gold before shedding leaves and moods give away seasonal melancholy. However, there was no hint of gloom among his companions who were taking photographs, sharing jokes and laughter before boarding for Islamabad. They appeared to be booked on a flight to Xanadu. There was a last-minute attempt by Team Sharif to surprise the Pakistani authorities by switching from a Gulf Air jet to a Pakistan International Airlines 747. Can you really surprise a military administration with a manoeuvre eight hours before landing when your departure is being televised and the flight path is predetermined?

Following some momentary theatrics, Shahbaz Sharif “consented” to stay back in London in case the elder brother was thrown in a dungeon and the party needed a skipper. No one knew what awaited them when they landed in Musharraf’s dominion. Many of them were aware though of what had happened to Shahbaz Sharif when he tried to end his exile by flying into Lahore in May 2000. He was deported straight away to Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan was still over 4,000 miles away but the general’s men were allowed deep into the terminal by the British authorities – taking note of how many people were accompanying the former prime minister who was returning after seven years in exile. The station head of Pakistan’s supreme intelligence agency sat just outside the lobby where the pre-flight festivity was in full swing. We shared a glance. He stopped me for a moment to inquire how many foreign journalists were travelling with Nawaz and if I knew their names and organisations. Shrugging shoulders, I wondered how I was supposed to know. He smiled and wished me a safe journey. “All journalists will be treated like ordinary passengers on arrival, Ghauri sahib,” he said. “We know that very well, janab. We are ordinary folks,” I replied before joining the melee. Weirdly, 2007 seems like yesterday.

Weather is pretty much the same in 2023 as it was in 2007. October rains have managed to dampen the sizzle of Pakistani summer a bit. Political heat, however, is about to rise several degrees. Nawaz Sharif’s cyclical journey is about to test him once again. He will not be facing the general who toppled and exiled him a quarter of a century ago; but he will surely have to confront a legal maze he says was crafted and laid by another set of soldiers to oust him for life. Institutional memory seems to have fossilised ever since Nawaz locked horns with Rawalpindi in the early ’90s.

Since Pakistani politics is primarily practiced through television screens, for days now, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has managed to hog space on dozens of primetime talk shows. Lethargic anchors have been passively sipping the cocktail served subtly to them by Nawaz Sharif’s brother, his daughter and his party principals regarding his return. Forget about the country’s gargantuan problems and the plight of its people; put aside the political fate of Imran Khan and his shifting from one prison to another jail; don’t mind that the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf is fraying under the pressure being exerted by unseen forces; sidestep the Pakistan Peoples Party’s grievance about the absence of a “level-playing field”; keep eyes wide shut from the resurging wave of terrorism on the country’s western borders and the worsening law and order within – the caretakers were also reduced by the press corps to answering the same set of questions.

For now, the return of the ‘man of steel’ seems to be the prime concern of the country. His family, his comrades, his camp followers have known full well that if Nawaz is not seen leading the electoral campaign for the forthcoming elections, the party will be over. Some party leaders’ boasts about Nawaz’s fourth term as premier however sounds hollowed by doubt. Claims that Nawaz Sharif will land in Lahore, dash to Iqbal Park, address a “historic” public rally and then drive to his suburban estate in Jati Umrah might sound like gospel truth to some party loyalists. But what if he lands in Islamabad instead, is taken to a pre-determined residence temporarily designated a sub-jail and kept there indefinitely?

Prime facie, there is no need to doubt the intentions of the caretakers for now. However, in candid conversations with a couple of the caretaker ministers, one could smell the blossoming of an innocent desire to serve a bit longer in the larger interest of the pauperised country and its hapless people. “Do politicians who have ruled this country for decades have the ability to solve the intricate problems faced by Pakistan,” some of them were asking. How will Nawaz and company respond if elections are pushed back for some reason or another?

Speaking to a select group a few weeks ago, one of the most influential western ambassadors in Islamabad likened the establishment to a ravishing beauty on a dance floor that all suiters want to spin with but don’t have the courage to admit the fact. What if the PMLN manages to win most seats in the Punjab but Nawaz is told that he has to sit back, relax and admire a set up in which his brother will be recalled to premiership and his daughter can start where he had begun his rise to political power all those years ago – as chief minister of the Punjab? Will he joust with the man trying to placate ruffled feathers in his institution post May 9? Will he relinquish his desire for another innings that could end exactly like the previous ones?

The chatter among the usual lot informed in Islamabad suggests that the Nawaz-led PMLN could form governments in the Centre and the Punjab with the help of a few smaller parties. A youthful batch of politicians in Balochistan may also contest on PMLN ticket and form a coalition government in the province. Since some of the most significant development projects in the near future are based in Balochistan, the future political dispensation will not like a confrontational situation between the Centre and the province.

Nawaz’s return points to a possible understanding between the powerful and the power-mongers. In the past, however, men handpicked by Nawaz have developed their own diction, direction and doctrines. What if the grapevine about the deal is nothing but hot air?

The writer is resident editor of The News in Islamabad