he battered and beaten boat that is Pakistani politics is precariously swaying on the monstrously swollen waves of runaway inflation, dangerously high utility prices, terrorist attacks and rising public anger. The painfully poor financial health of the nuclear-armed state is dependent on the International Monetary Fund’s Stand-By Agreement (SBA) that promised about $3 billion over a nine months period. The facts that the SBA lifeline is subject to two quarterly reviews, is another deadly iceberg on the way. The country’s “well-meaning” caretakers, nonetheless, are expressing optimism to safely float to the Election Island, sooner or later.

The helmsman constitutionally assigned to steer the craft to the next elections, who has been assured of all help by the caretaker administration, has been pulled in different directions by rowdy politicians who are asking him to pick up pace. A few days ago, he promised to do something in that regard with the help of his fellow mariners, who he said were ready to do the job by effectively employing the magical oars called delimitation.

Ever since the ‘premature’ dissolution of the National Assembly on August 9, the Election Commission of Pakistan has found itself between the devil and the deep blue sea. As if the criticism of it being in bed with the outgoing administration to plot an election delay were not enough, the commission has also been accused of unnecessarily invoking another constitutional obligation. It claims that it is required by the constitution to conduct fresh delimitations once the country has held a new census and its results have been officially endorsed. Pakistan carried out its seventh census in March and April showing an increase in population of over 20 million. Also, many people are now eligible to vote for the first time and it would be “criminal” not to include them. The results of the census, though challenged by some political parties, were officially approved by the outgoing government.

The constitution lays down that election should be held within 60 days once the National and Provincial Assemblies complete their term and are dissolved. If there is a dissolution prior to the mandated timeframe then the polling can be pushed back another 30 days. That was what former prime minister Shahbaz Sharif did in consultation with his coalition partners despite having said earlier that the National Assembly would complete its term and be dissolved on time. But, then a guess-the-actual-date game began and various ministers, politicians and political pundits started giving different dates for the dissolution of the National Assembly. The cacophony on the issue only added confusion to an already convoluted situation.

The Election Commission announced last Wednesday its intention to “shorten” the four-month timeframe allotted for the delimitation of National and Provincial Assembly constituencies. The commission has been meeting representatives of various political parties over the last few days to discuss an electoral roadmap and ascertain their positions because some have gradually changed their mind on the issue.

Wednesday’s statement indicated the possibility of a change in the commission’s stated position on the election timeline. Many observers had categorically ruled out elections this year after the commission announced in the middle of last month that it would redraw new boundaries for hundreds of constituencies before the next elections are held. Some politicians had already prophesied delayed elections long before the commission showed its hand.

While the public took to social media to express their confusion or clarity on the subjects of the creation of new constituencies and the necessity of delimitation of constituencies following each census, political parties started wrangling over the timing of holding of elections. Constitutionally, the commission cannot create new constituencies. That job remains the sole prerogative of the parliament. Since it is impossible to amend Articles 51 and 106 that deal with the composition of Majlis-i-Shura (parliament) and the Provincial Assemblies, respectively, no new constituencies could be created. On the other hand, the ECP is empowered to divide the country’s total area into smaller units to ensure efficient delivery of an electoral process. This process is necessitated by births, deaths and migration etc within particular constituencies. Delimitation is a continuous exercise meant to be undertaken after each census and before each election after a new census.

Despite a raging debate on national media on the subject, a consensus exists that though necessary, the delimitation would have negligible effect on the composition of the future assemblies. As per the latest digital census, Karachi in Sindh and Gujranwala and Kasur in the Punjab can have an additional seat each. But will they get them in the upcoming elections? No. Because the process will have to be undertaken by the next parliament.

As the situation stands today, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is siding with the ECP on the delimitation of constituencies. Some political analysts opine that the party does not desire to rock the boat, possibly having sensed that the ECP’s actions might be backed by the establishment. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), on the other hand, is demanding elections within 90 days. They do not want the electoral exercise to be delayed on the pretext of fresh delimitation. Sherry Rehman, a frontline politician of the party, told a presser last week that there was no need to “unnecessarily take the country towards a political and constitutional crisis.”

It would be interesting to watch which way the political winds blow in the next few months because the PML-N stance is now shared by the Jamiat-i-Ulema (Fazl), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and the Balochistan Awami Party. The PPP and the PTI share a common cause. The Awami National Party also wants election in 90 days but seemed satisfied after ECP’s assurance last week that elections could take place by February 2024. It can be argued that delimitation may not dramatically impact the final shape of the constituencies; the process, however, is exposing the limitations of the country’s major political parties and personalities.

The writer is the resident editor of The News International in Islamabad