olitical waters in Pakistan remain murky. After elections to the provincial assemblies of the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were not held within the 90-day constitutional timeframe, fingers remain crossed as far as the schedule and the conduct of the general elections is concerned.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has been reported as having sent a summary to President Arif Alvi for the dissolution of the National Assembly, a few days before the expiry of its five-year tenure. If the National Assembly is dissolved prematurely, even by a margin of a single day, general elections are required to be held within 90 days. This means that general elections need to be held by November 9. However, speculation is rife in the media, segments of the ruling alliance and the political opposition that elections could be delayed. The reasons for this range from the deemed desirability of a government led by technocrats to bide over a difficult period to the PDM’s fear of losing to Imran Khan. Some analysts, have suggested that once installed, the caretaker government could morph into a “technocrat” governing mechanism, fashioned along the Bangladeshi model (1996-2011).

A few senior lawyers have recently alluded to Article 254 of the constitution which, they suggest, allows a caretaker government to not hold elections within 90 days. However, a majority of the legal community is of the view that the article does not affect the operative value of constitutional provisions relating elections to be held within the mandated period.

It remains to be seen whether the caretaker government(s) will invoke Article 254. If they do, the matter may end up in the apex court. Another issue is related to the approval of the 2023 census results by the Council of Common Interests. It has been argued that fresh delimitation is a constitutional requirement once the latest census data have been approved. This means that the Election Commission of Pakistan has its work cut out. It has to take up the delimitation exercise in line with the demographic changes. Legal opinion on this matter might polarise quickly. Operationally speaking, it seems unlikely that the ECP will be able to complete delimitation in the three months within which it is mandated to hold elections. The caretaker government may not be held responsible in this respect. Logistically, however, the ECP requires institutional and financial support from various departments of the government. It may be recalled that the outgoing government had cited financial constraints for not providing the ECP the resources it needed to hold elections in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Moreover, security concern, i.e. terrorism, was also raised as a justification.

It is safe to assume that the ECP lacks the institutional capability to complete delimitation in three months and will thus require more time. This could lead to legal challenges not only for the Election Commission but also for the caretaker governments (prolonging the government as well as delimitation deadline/ timeframe). It is quite probable that someone from the PTI, now led by Shah Mahmood Qureshi, or a lawyer will file a petition before the Supreme Court, questioning the legality of a caretaker setup extending beyond 90 days and request the apex court to set an early deadline for delimitation. If this happens, the country will again witness a period of political instability, economic downturn and legal disputation.

If elections are delayed beyond 90 days particularly if these are not held even in the first quarter of 2024 with or without the SC intervention, mainstream political parties – the PPP and PML-N – will face public anger (for not holding elections even on the basis of the previous census). They could have held elections under the new census data if the census results were notified earlier, thus allowing more time to the ECP to complete delimitation. These political parties will also face intense criticism if economic indicators, especially food inflation (currently around 40 percent) do not improve. Imran Khan will be the direct beneficiary of this situation in terms of electoral support. However, that would be subject to getting a legal reprieve.

Internationally, the US and its European allies are likely to urge the caretaker setup and the ECP to hold elections. However, the US is not likely to sanction Pakistan, which is already struggling economically, as any sanctions would exacerbate anti-American sentiments in Pakistan. Regional powers such as China and the Gulf monarchies are more interested in a central mechanism than political processes, including elections.

The writer has a PhD in political science from Heidelberg University and a post-doc from UC-Berkeley. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright fellow and an associate professor. He can be reached at ejaz.bhatty@gmail.com