t is quite apparent now that general elections are not going to be held this year. For various reasons, it is not possible for the Election Commission or the political players to try to postpone these beyond March 2024. Some people are arguing that the Pakistan Democratic Movement has played it smart and bought itself some more time which it could use to regain some of the lost public support. For their part, leaders of all PDM components have been claiming that they want elections on time – between October and November 2023.

Several weeks ago, The News on Sunday had reported the existence of a plan to dissolve the National Assembly a day or two before it was due to complete its tenure on August 12, to secure 90 days (as opposed to 60) for holding the general elections. Another strategy was worked out later to further delay the polls. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif was accordingly advised to call the long-awaited meeting of the Council for Common Interests (CCI), which unanimously approved the results of the 2023 census. After the approval of the census results, a fresh delimitation of electoral constituencies has become a constitutional requirement. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is likely to ask for three to four months to complete the process, including addressing the objections raised by various political parties and individuals.

It is interesting that the CCI meeting was not called earlier (to justify a delay in holding the elections to the provincial assemblies of the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa). Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has made no secret of wanting its supremo Nawaz Sharif back before the campaign for the next elections gets under way. Some other PDM components, such as the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan (JUI-F), too, want to consolidate their positions.

Some political analysts and activists have voiced fears that the next general elections might be postponed indefinitely. This is not likely for various reasons. The first is the big change in the Supreme Court of Pakistan where Qazi Faez Isa will take oath as the new chief justice. Justice Isa has a reputation of being a staunch protector of constitution and rule of law. The ECP will find it hard on his watch to delay the elections.

The second reason is that President Arif Alvi will complete his tenure on September 9. Under Article 44 of the constitution, he can continue till a successor is elected which would be possible only after the next general elections since the president’s electoral college includes the National and Provincial Assemblies. A delay in holding general elections will thus create another constitutional crisis.

There is yet another important reason to believe that the next general elections will be held before March 2024. Forty eight members of the Senate will retire in March. This means that Pakistan will be left with very little in terms of a parliamentary system as the Senate would be almost half empty.

But how will a delay in elections (from November 2023 to March 2024) impact political parties and their electoral chances?

The PML-N, the biggest component of the outgoing coalition, is struggling to keep/ revive its vote bank in the Punjab and some parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa where it suffered a setback in the by-elections. Some PML-N leaders believe that with the passage of time the party would regain its strength, especially after the much anticipated return of Nawaz Sharif.

Azam Nazeer Tarar, the outgoing law minister, says that the PML-N is one of the biggest political parties in the country. He says the party believes in democracy and democratic processes. “We were not in favour of any delays in the general elections. But the CCI meeting and the approval of the census results were a constitutional requirement. Various political forces had asked for those. It has now become mandatory to redraw the boundaries of constituencies according to population. This may take four months.”

Senator Taj Haider, the PPP leader, says that the party has always demanded that elections be held on time. He says the PPP has never tried to hide behind such delays. “As far as the popularity of the PPP is concerned, results of the Sindh local government elections reveal that it has strengthened its grip in Sindh.”

It may be mentioned here that the PPP defeated the PTI on two National Assembly seats from Multan and Karachi in 2022 by-elections. The PTI chairman was defeated by Abdul Hakim Baloch of the PPP from Karachi.

“We are working on regaining our lost vote bank in the Punjab and the KP. We will surprise our opponents in the next general elections,” adds Haider.

Leaders of Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Fazl, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, the Awami National Party and other PDM components have expressed similar views – they are ready for elections and a delay will not make any difference to their electoral standing or performance.

Zulfi Bukhari, the PTI stalwart, however tells TNS that everything happening in the parliament or outside it has been done to exclude the PTI chairman from the race on account of the party’s popularity. “They realised that if elections were held in November, the PTI would sweep those – in the National as well as Provincial Assemblies.”

“Some of our opponents think that they can dent PTI’s popularity by using delaying tactics; they are mistaken. With each passing day, the PTI will get stronger in terms of votes it commands.”

“The PTI is consulting its legal experts on challenging the CCI meeting in a court of law as it was attended by two caretaker chief ministers, who are not authorised under the constitution.”

PDM leaders such as Shehbaz Sharif, Maryam Nawaz, Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Bilawal Bhutto, had, in recent weeks, reiterated that election would be held on time once the National Assembly completed its term or was prematurely dissolved. A delay is now on the cards on account of the constitutional obligations resulting from the recent political decisions. The PDM leaders have said that PTI’s popularity will plunge soon.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and analyst. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher