akistan Muslim League-Quaid is faced with many predicaments – structural and circumstantial – as it gears up for the next elections. The incumbent government has recently announced that these will be held in accordance with the dates given by the Election Commission.

The PML-Q was cobbled together as a king’s party by Gen Pervez Musharraf in 2002. The party was conceived as a traditional/ conventional party seeking patronage benefits and passing those on to members and electables attached to it. The historical trajectory of Pakistani politics shows that a king’s party holds and perpetuates its politics if given a reasonable time. It is frequently tied to a family dynasty.

A family dynasty is a boon as well as a bane. Generally demonised, this factor has often proven to be the most important in determining the resilience of a party under pressure of political engineering by the establishment. Like Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the PML-Q has survived only due to the family factor. Had the House of Chaudhris not owned the party, it would have withered away long ago. Nonetheless, the party is beset with multiple challenges, with the national and provincial assemblies’ elections approaching.

Broadly, the challenges faced by the Chaudhris include family rifts; the establishment’s wrath against Parvez Elahi; and the generational shift within family. It was a severe setback for the party as well as the family when Parvez Elahi announced the merger of the PML-Q with the PTI, and was given the presidentship of the PTI. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain had in the past been considered the master of political networking and alliances. Parvez Elahi was recognised for his knack for bureaucratic maneuvering. The two maintained a very close liaison, reinforcing each other’s strengths.

It is important to note as elections approach that most of the electables leaving the PTI are not joining any of the mainstream parties. Instead, they have gravitated to newly formed parties such as the Istihkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP) and the PTI-Parliamentarians.

The factors that can influence the outcomes of the upcoming elections include the pervasiveness of social media, the youth bulge and the unprecedented urbanisation. Till recently, these factors were being perceived as going in favour of the PTI. However, with a large number of electables leaving the party following the events of May 9 and their portrayal in mainstream media, the party’s capacity to translate its popular support into assembly seats has been damaged.

The PML-Q had been operating around factors like patronage, establishment support, Jat biraderi bond and matrimonial alliances. It has been seen as an alliance of Punjabi elites with only few winning candidates outside the Punjab, especially after Musharraf’s ouster. Its electoral stronghold are in Gujrat, Chakwal, Mandi Bahauddin, Hafizabad and Bahawalpur.

It is ironic that despite two decades of active politics, the PML-Q has not had a charismatic leader with broad appeal and public acclaim. Its traditional players have always relied on development agenda with big projects, offering public sector jobs, facilitating bureaucratic appointments and leverages under the umbrella of political patronage. The party has been an iconic alliance of heavy-weights with a reasonable number of seats, and was important to many governments as an ally. This factor had lent it perpetuity in power and made it politically relevant since its inception.

Following the recent split in the family, the PML-Q has been divided into two factions: one led by Parvez Elahi, Chaudhry Wajahat and Moonis Elahi; the other by Chaudhry Shujaat, Salik Hussain, Shafey Hussain and Tariq Bashir Cheema. This split became apparent during the Punjab Assembly voting in which Parvez Elahi was fielded as a PTI candidate for chief minister and Shujaat, being the party head, advised legislators in writing to vote for the PML-N candidate. Parvez Elahi, as parliamentary party leader, had forced them to toe his line. Later, he had sought deseating of the members who did not follow his lead.

Being president of the PTI, Parvez Elahi’s position became very awkward in the wake of the May 9 events, considering the pro-establishment baggage of his family. His son, Moonis Elahi left for Spain. The Gujrat homes of the Chaudhris were raided by Anti-Corruption Department and the police – unprecedented developments in the recent history of the Punjab. Parvez Elahi is still resisting the outrage of dominant powers. However, he must be aware that the charismatic vote of the PTI chief is not going to yield too many seats in the upcoming elections. Some commentators have argued that Parvez Elahi and Moonis Elahi wish to inherit the charismatic appeal of the PTI chief.

There is, meanwhile, a dispute about the inheritance of the politics of the House of Chaudhris, in other words, succession. Moonis Elahi and Salik Hussain are contenders for the political legacy of Chaudhry Zahoor Elahi. Salik Hussain is well educated and shrewd but both the contenders are ill-equipped to maintain the momentum in traditional politics that has been the hallmark of PML-Q politics.

According to historian Ibn Khaldun (1332-1406), a family or tribe flourishes as long as there is a strong asabya (binding force) and declines when the asabya weakens. This applies to the Chaudhris and the PML-Q as well. Chaudhry Sarwar, the former Punjab governor, has recently landed in the party and has been trying to patch up the differences. It is not clear so far how successful he can be in his endeavour.

The writer has a PhD in history from the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. He heads the History Department at the University of Sargodha. He has worked as a research fellow at the Royal Holloway College, University of London. He can be reached at abrar.zahoor@hotmail.com. He tweets @AbrarZahoor