n about three weeks, the current government will be added to the catalogue of Pakistan’s political history. It’s a painful chronicle wherein many politicians appear as puppets who only occasionally come alive through artificial intelligence before they are dumped in a scrapyard. It is claimed that the craftsmanship goes on. Those in control of the puppetry atelier have time and again proven the centenarian American genius political theorist Henry Kissinger right that “the illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer.”

It won’t be outrageous to propose that in Pakistan the age of nationwide popular politics is effectively over. Political parties that once performed well across the provincial divide have been cut to a more manageable size. The last experiment to develop a popular politician-cum-national-leader bombed with deadly ramifications. Political alliances, prima facie, seem the only way forward. One party, however, still hopes to prove otherwise provided its leader arrives back in time from self-exile.

Final official results notwithstanding, the last electoral exercise (2018) was not aimed at propping up Imran Khan and his party as a national force. The purpose was to pull Nawaz Sharif down. Anecdotal evidence to this effect is littered all over the place. Many among his political opponents too have said as much publicly. His assertive politics and survival despite two earlier ousters were too much to stomach for the powerful establishment. In the forthcoming elections, Nawaz would like to avail one last chance to prove that he was unnecessarily wronged. Many of those who have called on him in London, where he spends many daytime hours in his son’s business office near Marble Arch, do talk about sensing a stealth vengeance.

Would it be possible though? Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has the toughest task at hand – to reclaim the Punjab in a manner that it should need the least amount of help from smaller parties to form governments in the province and at the Centre. Those who have harboured and failed in achieving a desire for decades to break Pakistan down into a dozen or more provinces have somehow succeeded in splitting political parties into regional units. The Punjab is a case in point. Politicians for southern and northern districts have joined and abandoned Nawaz Sharif when it suited their interests. Nawaz has essentially represented an urban moneyed class in the central districts of the Punjab. However, he has also developed pockets of appeal beyond Sahiwal in the south and Jhelum in the north. In 1980s he was meant to counter the Pakistan Peoples Party’s countrywide appeal. Later, he managed to throw an independent political root.

The party has faced serious situations in the past. The scenarios it is faced with now, however, are unprecedented and trickier. The principal question demanding a definitive answer is if and when Nawaz can return home. He managed to leave the country on medical ‘leave’ in 2019 but has stayed on in London. He chose to hand over his political standard to his daughter who carried it with gusto during the by-elections. When Imran-Bajwa spat became public, he stayed put in Park Lane. He showed little interest in returning to the country even after his brother was picked up to head a PDM-led administration.

Common sense suggests that Nawaz should return when the elections are only a few weeks away so that he is not overexposed to unremitting media. Another understandable reason is to shun a naming and shaming exercise about those who masterminded his ouster in 2017. Nawaz hopes that his name can be cleared in legal terms so that he is allowed an honourable return. But the billion-dollar question remains: will his return ensure that his brother can return to the office of prime minister or will he want the throne for himself? Grapevine has suggested for years that the establishment wants a schism between the two brothers and that it favours the younger Sharif for being more flexible and ‘forgiving’. Party workers, however, worry that Shahbaz is not a winning horse. “Shahbaz sahib may be a good performer but he can’t win us the elections, especially with the Imran factor still in play. The party, the voters, the supporters need Mian sahib back in the driving seat ASAP,” four PML-N ministers have told me in recent weeks.

Will the courts clear Nawaz ahead of the elections and allow him to contest as a redeemed man? A bigger question still is if the establishment will let him contest. These are serious questions with no clear answers. But these questions are about Nawaz and not his party that is bound to face a quadrangular attack in a few months’ time. The most potent political challenge will come from a current ally – Asif Ali Zardari. The man is on a mission to see his son become the prime minister. Bilawal might have been tutored well but will Zardari, the astute strategist, throw him in at the deep end when the pool is pulsating with killer sharks. Why not pitch himself instead? He has been in touch with politicians from other provinces lately. If he secures the electoral adjustments from the PML-N for his leading Punjabi comrades and wins a few seats in Balochistan and the KP, he could be a potent threat to PML-N’s plans. Can the PML-N demand a few seats in Karachi as a quid pro quo? Only time will tell.

The PML-N will be up against another political hazard in south Punjab – the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party. Both Jehangir Tareen and Aleem Khan have a point to prove to their former political boss. Both harbour a desire to be the chief minister of the Punjab – the most powerful office after the prime ministership. If the IPP can pick 10 to 15 National Assembly seats and 20 to 25 provincial constituencies, they can demand the chief minister’s slot from the PML-N and the PPP. The latter shouldn’t have a problem in agreeing to their ask if that helps it grab the Centre. But will the PML-N dare do that? No way. A central government without the Punjab is not what they are after. If Nawaz is allowed to contest and if he wins, PML-N might like to repeat its 1997 model, with Shahbaz running the Punjab.

Nawaz can also use Maulana Fazl-ur Rehman, offering him the presidency to secure his support in the KP and Balochistan. Electables in Balochistan always manage to win lucrative positions. Some of them have been meeting the PPP and PML-N leaders.

On paper, the contest looks like a two-way fight – between the PPP and the PML-N. But many more hazards are stacked against the PML-N. Will Imran Khan and millions of his loyal supporters be a factor or will he be disqualified? Will the establishment agree to Nawaz’s ascendency or will they ask him to retire in favour of his brother? Will Maryam be given a significant role or will she be asked to take a back seat? Will the PML-N reclaim the Punjab on its own or will it need support from the younger, newer and richer group of politicians in the IPP to regain power? Which way shall the old guard in Gujrat and the northern districts lean? There are questions aplenty but mere guesses by way of answers.

The writer is the resident editor of The News, Islamabad