n paper, the coalition government is left with four weeks before it liquidates itself after completing its constitutionally mandated term won last year through an unprecedented vote of confidence that pulled down a cricketing great-turned political kraken. The coalition appears ripe now to wither; the impermanent partners ready to wrestle one another for the federal crown.

Many of the coalition leaders feel confident that they are well placed to return to Islamabad and that their constituencies are intact.

Today, Pakistan is a disjointed polity. Gone are the days when a single political party or a popular politician could sway more than one province to his advantage. Most of the politicians left in the arena are largely dependent on the goodwill of Rawalpindi. Weakened by years of infighting, incapacity, inefficiency, ignorance and corruption, several political parties have been reduced to familial cults – take out the patriarch and the party is over.

It would be interesting to see which way Pakistan tilts following the polls that may be held towards the end of this year. Doubts have been raised recently that those will be held according to the plan. But that is not the subject of this writing. The prime minister has made a categorical statement that his government will bow out on August 14 and that the Election Commission of Pakistan will announce the schedule for general elections.

Let us take a cursory look at where various parties that are likely to contest the next elections stand today. Let us begin with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Currently heading the coalition government, the party will be facing the biggest challenge in the coming days. Shahbaz Sharif might be leaving the prime minister’s office with the hope of a triumphant return in a few months’ time. He can claim credit for the IMF deal; has sought to align the government and the party with the establishment – especially after the May 9 hooliganism – and is not a leader in the same mould as an assertive Nawaz Sharif or a disruptive Imran Khan. He has kept quiet not just Maryam Nawaz but also his coalition allies.

But what are his plans for his elder brother? Is the elder Sharif making trips to Dubai and Saudi Arabia in support of his younger brother? Can he possibly be asking the Middle Eastern royals to plead his case with those that matter?

Forget family, even federal ministers candidly admit that their performance since April last year cannot win them the next term if Nawaz Sharif does not lead the charge.

Pakistan Peoples Party, on the other hand, is pretty buoyant. With Sindh solidly behind it and Karachi having elected a jiala mayor, Asif Zardari is in his element. Reports suggest that he has been in touch with several ‘electables’ from Balochistan. He has also been busy in the Punjab and is trying to negotiate a walkover for select PPP leaders from Multan, Gujar Khan, Lalamusa and Mandi Bahauddin.

For quite some time now, Zardari has been lobbying for Bilawal to be the next prime minister. As foreign minister, Bilawal has shown promise during his international outings and in his interactions with global media. One wonders, what Zardari might ask for should the Sharifs insist on retaining the office of prime minister and retaking the Punjab? Grapevine suggests that he wasn’t happy with the creation of the Pakistan Istehkam Party (PIP), suspecting that it might have Nawaz Sharif’s blessings to foil his foray into southern Punjab. Still, if the PPP sweeps rural Sindh; makes gains in urban Sindh; and can win some constituencies in Balochistan, the KP and the Punjab, he can present it as a truly national party.

The biggest question before the vote remains whether Imran Khan and his party will be allowed to contest freely. On the one hand Imran has been crying hoarse in his Twitter Space addresses and foreign media interviews that he is going to be arrested, jailed or barred from contesting within the next few days; on the other hand, his party might find it difficult even to field candidates on all the seats it won last time. The PTI has been badly bruised since the May 9 mayhem. Almost all the electables that joined the party ahead of the 2018 elections have already left it. Some have been expelled by the party.

Imran Khan, meanwhile, has been relentless in his diatribes against the former army chief and some of the serving officers. He has, however, exonerated the United States of the charge of “toppling” his regime. Some political observers in Islamabad argue that if Imran and his party are allowed to contest elections, he and his followers might damage the establishment’s cause more than his political opponents. Bereft of the 2018 electables, Imran Khan remains confident that he can march back to power with the help of millions of young voters and supporters as long as the elections are free and fair.

Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam hopes to do better than the last time. The party improved its showing in the KP local elections and the current governor is an ally. Fazl believes that the JUI tally will improve in the KP as well as in Balochistan.

Jehangir Tareen and Aleem Khan jumped into the arena the moment they realised that Imran Khan had been significantly bruised. They are hoping to win enough seats to make a bid for the chief ministership of the Punjab. Most of the ‘electables’ leaving the PTI have joined them. Should the Pakistan Istehkam Party pick up 10 to 15 National Assembly seats and 20 to 25 in the Punjab Assembly, Zardari would be willing to do a deal with its leaders. The same might be argued for the Sharifs who might also be more desperate.

The biggest losers at the current moment appear to be the Chaudhris of Gujrat. They will find it difficult to retain the political clout they have enjoyed for decades. Several sardars, nawabs and political wannabes from Balochistan are already busy meeting leaders of major political parties.

The writer works for the Jang/ Geo Group. He tweets @aamirghauri