akistan is ranked the 8^th most vulnerable country according to the Global Climate Risk Index Report (2021). Since 2010, the weather patterns in Pakistan have been in a constant flux. Shifting monsoons, delayed winters, early spring heat shocks, intense heatwaves in summer, droughts and floods in different parts of the country in different years keep adding to the uncertainty. The implications of unpredictable weather for agriculture and food security are serious.

A range of adaptation and mitigation measures are being discussed, including climate smart agriculture (CSA). While we wait for such measures to work, the farmer tends to adjust and adapt. The worst livelihood outcomes include excessive borrowing, sale of assets and migration. The seasonal migration of people and livestock from deserts and mountains is becoming more frequent.

Immediate attention goes to the application of technology for forecasting and decision support systems. Agro ecological zoning developed collaboratively at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad (UAF), is one such intervention that can help farmers rethink traditional crop choices. The Punjab province was divided into 14 agro-ecological zones. Our traditional/ generalised cropping schemes like wheat/ cotton or wheat/ rice must be replaced with a diversity of crop choices. Data sciences, artificial intelligence and communication technologies offer precision applications to combat weather challenges. Drones have become essential equipment in CSA.

There are lessons in the political economy of five major crops. Spring maize, a non-significant crop forty years ago, is now a major grain crop – an outstanding example of adaptation. Hitherto, it has been assumed that soybean is a mild climate crop which is an example of lack of thoroughness. As I write this piece, the UAF has 130 soybean trials in place from Badin to Astore, ready for harvesting in the months of June/ July. Our genetic collection and agronomic research show a possibility of growing multiple/ successive soybean crops in a year. Different varieties are suited to different locations/ times of the year. The soybean experiment offers a wealth of data to devise a CSA platform.

The wheat yields remained stagnant for several years due to temperature spikes/ terminal heat causing poor grain filling. That was reversed during the last harvest because of favourable weather. A durable solution lies in the introduction of heat tolerant varieties. The $10 billion import of essential commodities can only be arrested by breaking the wheat yield stagnation, thereby, a reduction in the area under wheat to allow the expansion of cultivated area under early cotton, oilseeds, pulses, and soybean. In addition to yield and disease resistance, it is important to breed wheat for nutritional value (protein, zinc/ iron).

It is equally important to diversify our diets. One can easily cite the growth in the consumption of rice and potatoes. But our direct consumption of maize has gone down despite plenty of supply and lower prices compared to wheat and rice. Blending maize and wheat flour is a real opportunity to lower pressure on wheat.

Chickpeas are an essential/ sensitive commodity that we have left entirely to the weather in the rain fed areas. Timely rain means sufficient supply; else, we import. The average yield in a good rain year is around 5 maunds per acre. There is new genetics that can be adapted to 1/2 irrigation with a potential of 25 maunds per acre. Thereby, where we can have a secure supply, we can also spare 70 percent of the area devoted to chickpeas.

The backyard poultry contributes approximately 20 percent of the egg and poultry meat supplies, sold at premium price. Looking at the rampant malnutrition and its nexus with poverty, the backyard poultry deserves special attention. We have bred desi birds with lesser feather load making them temperature resilient. Our breed is high in annual egg laying capacity due to deletion of brooding habit/ gene (200 vs 80 eggs).

Following interventions can help alleviate the compounding weather related food insecurity:

Short duration/ determinate crop varieties: Fifty years ago, October 15 was the ideal sowing time for wheat. This now begins mid-November. Despite shorter duration, the current varieties are higher in yield. Similarly, short duration selections are available for mustards, soybean, vegetables and fodder crops. The next cotton crop transformation could occur by replacing the present long duration (>180 days) varieties with determinate/ shorter duration of 120 days, fit for mechanical picking. The shorter the duration, the less the risk of weather events and of insect/ pests and diseases.

Stress adaptable crops: Quinoa is a staple in South America. It is a gluten-free grain which has medicinal value. Revival of barley is recommended as a hardy crop for marginal areas. Sorghum and millet are staple in Africa. This once used to be the case in the subcontinent. The revival of millet is happening fast.

GM crops: Genetic transformation of crops with multiple genes is now a mature technology that includes stress tolerance as a prime objective. We are lagging behind, which is a regulatory policy challenge.

Surveillance of new diseases and pests: Re-occurrence of locust in 2019-2020, emergence of Fall Army Worm in maize and rice crop and yellow rust of wheat are some of the recent examples of weather driven threats. Investment in capacity building and diagnostic competencies is needed.

Peri-urban agriculture: The rural/ urban migration feeds into the growth of peri-urban slums and land use conversions. These pose food security challenges of a new kind and are yet to be recognised.

The blue economy: Our marine resources and inland fisheries offer a rich avenue for growth.

High density plantation of fruit trees is a climate adaptation by canopy management.

Mechanisation for plant debris management to avoid burning could help mitigate long term weather uncertainties.

R&D collaboration: Global climate funding is becoming more accessible. It requires professional collaborations. Acquisition of knowledge/ germplasm from across the world is imperative.

Outreach: Farmers respond to innovations through extension initiatives. Our extension framework needs a design improvement for capacity building for CSA.

Policy and enabling: A policy prescription for vertical yield growth of wheat and cotton is essential for any transformative change in the agricultural landscape. The silver lining is hidden in the migration to be followed by default corporatisation of land and farm services with capacity to adapt and mitigate.

Pakistan is endowed with a vast natural resource and human capital which should be reconfigured to ensure food security for the masses today and for the future generations.

The writer is the vice chancellor of the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad