esults of the local government by-elections, held last Sunday across seven districts of Karachi, have confirmed that none of the political parties can achieve the target of winning a simple majority of 124 seats required to elect the next mayor.

This means that both the political parties that have been leading in the previous round of local polls; the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) are now dependent on the support of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) to win the mayoral elections.

Karachi has 246 Union Committees (UCs), distributed among its 25 town municipal corporations (TMC), carved out of seven districts in Karachi, the most populous city of the country.

After a delay of several months, the second phase of the local government polls was held in 235 UCs on January 15.

Polling in the remaining 11 constituencies: UC-4 New Karachi, UC-6 North Nazimabad, UC-13 New Karachi in District Central; UC-2 Korangi, UC-3 Shah Latif Town, UC-8 Landhi in District Korangi; UC-1 Orangi, UC-2 Orangi, UC-8 Mominabad in District West; UC-2 Bihar Colony in District South; and UC-2 Baldia in District Keamari; was postponed because of the death of candidates.

The by-election for these constituencies was held on May 7. Since there was a narrow margin between the two leading parties after the second round of local elections, this round of by-polls was to determine who would assume mayorship of the port-city.

After the by-elections, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) issued the final results for 240 UCs after recounting votes, hearing allegations of rigging and dealing with other complaints. Out of the 11 seats, the PPP bagged seven and the JI won four.

The results of the remaining six UCs were withheld. Sources in the ECP and political quarters say that these seats will end up with the PPP, which has retained its lead after the by-elections.

The fresh tally gives the ruling PPP an edge over the JI. According to the unofficial results of 240 UCs, the number of seats the party won stands at 98, the JI has clinched 87 seats and the PTI 43 seats.

According to the updated results, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has won eight seats after joining an independent candidate, while the Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) and the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) have won three and one UCs respectively.

Analyzing the statistics reveals the conundrum; no party has the simple majority needed to elect a mayor on its own.

Possible scenarios
124 votes (excluding reserved seats) are needed in the City Council to elect a mayor for Karachi. The notified results indicate that all of the parties have failed to gain a simple majority required to nominate a mayor.

This means that the stakeholders will have to form coalitions to work it out. Political analysts believe that the composition of the coalition government will depend on negotiations amongst the winning parties and their allies.
If the JI and the PTI join hands to form a government, their votes would add up to 130, and they will have sufficient seats to elect a mayor. In this case, the post of deputy mayor could be offered to a PTI candidate.
On the other hand, the PPP which won 98 seats is also hoping that its seats will increase to 104 after gaining the six UCs as a result of a court decision.
As a part of the Pakistan Democratic Movement-led coalition government in Karachi, the PPP can hope for support from the PML-N and the JUI-F- but even the combined votes of the three parties are insufficient to get a simple majority in the City Council. The PPP will still need 11 to 13 votes to give the city its first PPP mayor.
Contesting separately, the PPP and the JI cannot get a simple majority (124 seats) even if they manage to persuade members of every other party — except for the PTI — to vote for them.

This has made the PTI indispensible. Analysts believe that the PPP, using its provincial government machinery, will try to woo at least 13 PTI UC chairpersons to vote for its mayoral candidate.

On May 11, the PPP, with the support of the Mutahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) and the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) passed a key amendment to the Local Government Act in the Sindh Assembly, paving the way for former administrator Murtaza Wahab to become mayor. The new amendment allows the mayor to get elected to a UC seat within six months of the polls.

Meanwhile, the JI has nominated its Karachi chief Hafiz Naeem-ur Rehman as its mayoral candidate.

Reserved seats
In the first phase, 246 chairmen in the City Council are elected through direct elections.

Following the completion of the direct phase of local government elections, the ECP allocates 121 seats reserved for women, labourers, youth, minorities, transgender people, and differently-abled persons in proportion to the number of UCs won by each political party to complete the House of the Karachi Metropolitan Corporation (KMC) comprising 367 members.
One percent of seats are reserved for transgender persons (two seats), one percent for differently-abled people (two seats), 33 percent for women (81 seats), five percent for youth (12 seats), five percent for labourers (12 seats) and five percent for minorities (12 seats).
After adding these seats, the House of the City Council will have 367 elected representatives who will then proceed to elect the mayor of Karachi.

The writer is a freelance journalist and researcher. He covers security, politics and rights. He can be reached at zeea.rehman@gmail.com. He tweets at @zalmayzia