Census 2023 makes one of the key topics of discussion these days. Ordinary folks, all of whom have to be counted as a mandatory requirement of the exercise, cast aspersions about the usefulness of this task. When interviewed, people argue that population and housing counts have been done in the past as well. But despite generating new figures and statements, the past exercises hardly influenced policies that favoured the poor and the ordinary. Other stakeholders, primarily political parties, are building up rallying points around census matters. Jamaat-i-Islami and Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan are concerned about the veracity of head count in Karachi and elsewhere in urban Sindh. The leaders of these parties have voiced fear that people in Sindh’s urban locations may have been undercounted. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has shown reservation about the process of census, especially enumeration of flood and rain displaced people. It is not satisfied with the counting of people in many parts of country, especially Sindh.

During public briefings and media talks, the chief statistician has also dilated on the various issues related to the conduct of the present census. He has also admitted some potential short comings in the initial stages of the census field work. Despite these clarifications, concerns abound about the possible inaccuracy of the census in Sindh. Displacement due to floods, migrations for various reasons to Sindh from elsewhere, undercounting of people living in tall buildings, the challenge of counting moving populations and categorisation of housing typologies are also labelled as potential issues that shall have a bearing on the census outputs. Minority communities fear an incongruent listing of their existence, given the environment of intolerance prevailing in some parts of the country. Whereas every objection and concern is worth an impartial and objective investigation, a few fundamentals may be established to streamline the progress of this vital assignment.

A census is a methodical exercise to be conducted in an objective manner. It is initiated as the first step in identifying the social, demographic, economic and developmental status of the people and the contexts they inhabit. The information generated as a consequence of census has a bearing on the allocation of public resources, preparation of cases for dealing with extraordinary underdevelopment situations, updating of population listings in electoral constituencies, outlining development priorities, correcting and streamlining choice of projects/ programmes and extrapolation of growth trends. The census is also an exercise in impact assessment with respect to past development initiatives in public health, education, social welfare and physical infrastructure. Actual coverage and penetration of mass schemes such as immunisation are studied through the tabulation and analysis of census results. The delivery mechanisms worked out by the various government departments, project implementation units and donor funded arrangements are examined for their effectiveness. Accurate census results and analysis can help guide policymakers frame effective decisions for public benefit.

As our politics function, the tilt of desirable census results can help political parties in multiple ways. These parties, at various layers of their working and existence, fear that unfavourable population numbers may impact their vote bank.

A tilt in census results can help political parties in multiple ways. These parties, at various layers of their working and existence, fear that unfavourable population numbers may impact their vote bank. Ethnic groups – and their actual and alleged representatives – are concerned about the manner in which concentration of population shall be recorded. Parties and groups dealing with specific regions and peoples wish to see the results directly responsive to their aspirations. Proportional population weightage in provinces is another fear. As the population factor is a vital variable in resource distribution through the National Finance Commission (NFC) award, census results and their validation shall become an extremely contentious issue. Technocrats and census management are obviously under enormous pressure while performing this duty.

Census 2017 found out that 36.4 percent of the population lived in cities. Many independent researchers were not satisfied with this figure. They believed that if the phenomenon of urbanisation was measured in all its forms, this percentage may have been higher. It was also argued that the definition of ‘urban’ – which was confined to notified municipal limits – was inadequate and in denial of the parallel existence of urbanisation. The stretches of urban developments along the urban peripheries of large and medium-sized cities, clustered urban locations along the corridors of movements and water bodies, enterprise-based urban locations around major industries and other type of establishments are only a few visible forms to challenge the figure.

Numerous objections have already been voiced by various political parties, community and civil society groups challenging the veracity of interim figures. Regionally popular political parties are assessing the results from their specific perspectives. For example, displacement to large cities due to previous floods and earthquakes from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and elsewhere to Karachi; migrations for various reasons to urban Sindh from elsewhere; unprecedented movement of population and consequent densification of large cities do not seem to surface in the interim results. High rates of population growth in cities due to migration and natural growth have generated multiple outcomes. Urban centres face the problem of squatter and unplanned settlements as an acute issue. These settlements have been evolving for a long time due to the inadequate state responses to the housing needs of the poor. As state land was abundant in several cities, many katchi abadis sprang up on these loosely guarded territories. The landlords of peri-urban locations also contributed to the promotion of katchi abadis for their own benefits. With the passage of time, the options of affordable housing for the really poor have simply vanished. Burgeoning land prices, high construction costs, low savings/ capital accumulation among the needy groups and the absence of housing credit options are among the factors contributing to this problem. Urban land, which was considered a social asset a few decades ago, is now traded as a commercial commodity. Migration to Karachi from various disadvantaged regions continues at a very high pace. Much of this population is absorbed in the katchi abadis. Uneven settlement, poor governance and absence of elected local governments give rise to social conflicts, crime and violence. Many medium and large sized cities in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Punjab and Sindh are experiencing this problem.

It is hoped that the census managers will devise a sound strategy to deal with the challenges of census affairs communication. Effective and timely communication can help reduce the misperceptions that may undermine the benefits of this vital exercise.

The writer is an academic and researcher based in Karachi