midst continued political turmoil that has engulfed Pakistan since Imran Khan’s government was vetoed out of power, the Supreme Court of Pakistan ordered on April 3 that elections to the Punjab Assembly be held on May 14.

The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a conglomerate of political parties heading the government in Islamabad, has said that elections shall be held across the country in one-go.

The Election Commission of Pakistan, an independent institution according to Articles 216-220 of the constitution, had earlier announced at the end of March that elections to the Punjab Assembly would be held on October 8, along with elections to the other assemblies and not on the already set date, April 30.

According to Article 224 sub section 2(B) of the constitution, “when the National Assembly or a Provincial Assembly is dissolved, a general election to the Assembly shall be held within a period of ninety days.”

Federal Minister for Law and Justice Azam Nazir Tarar had backed the decision to delay the elections till October on account of the economic constraints and a “deteriorating” security environment.

While the national economy is in a shambles, the security situation especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, has also dominoed since the Afghan Taliban took over Kabul in August 2021. This has caused anxiety all over and revived memories of 2008, when non-state actors had declared quasi governments in several areas, particularly the tribal belt.

Pakistan had managed to reach a ceasefire with the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in 2022. However, it lasted only four months. The ‘defensive’ and ‘revenge’ attacks during the ceasefire and later have created unrest in the country.

In the first three months of the current year, 125 policemen died and more than 221 were injured in suicide attacks and target killings even in the most ‘secured’ zone of Peshawar’s Police Lines. This forced policymakers to ponder on what had gone wrong since the APS attack in 2014. Now, following an apex committee meeting, the prime minister has vowed to implement the National Action Plan with full force. Apparently, current efforts will be enhanced and no large scale military operations are planned, “since militants do not hold any territory.”

The current political, economic and security situation of the country presents a gloomy picture. After the latest National Security Committee meeting that took place on April 7, an official statement issued by the prime minister’s office said that the participants had agreed to launch a comprehensive operation with the support of the entire nation to rid the country of the menace of terrorism.

The specifications of the operation i.e., strategy, model, areas, strength and budget have still not been shared with the media and various stakeholders. The last large-scale operation in 2014 had cost more than $1 billion and displaced thousands of people from their homes. In 2023, it is much harder to imagine where the money might come from and how the IDPs might be helped.

Threats posed by militant activities are on the rise. Since the start of 2023, militant groups espousing various ideologies have formed alliances and have been carrying out attacks on almost a daily basis. As many as 91 attacks were claimed in January; 88 in February and 98 in March, with a total of more than 400-500 casualties. The TTP has proved the main source of instability and insecurity in the country. It has launched a new campaign of attacks across Pakistan and has spread its tentacles to Balochistan, the Punjab, and Sindh, where the group has staged several suicide attacks and terrorist operations. The group has also challenged the NSC by issuing a point-by-point rejoinder to its press release. The group had previously issued a statement saying that political gatherings were not among its targets.

However, the TTP is not the only entity threatening security. Apart from the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan, which is also influenced by changing transborder dynamics between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, the Islamic State is still capable of carrying out both low-intensity attacks and major operations, such as the suicide attack in Bolan, Balochistan, carried out in March this year.

In view of the turbulence, the conditions are not ideal for election. However, although the threats and attacks from militant organisations cannot be overlooked altogether, delaying elections will further exacerbate the intensity of the political turmoil.

“Counter terrorism measures require the backing of governments as well as the people of the country,” an official with direct knowledge of the developments tells The News on Sunday. “The political divide needs to be closed before any tangible action,” he adds.

Journalist Ihsan Tipu Mehsud tells TNS: “there are certain limitations with regard to the government going into another military offensive against the TTP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: local acceptance and tactical restraints. Locals have lost faith in the capability of the government to eliminate the threat of TTP,” he says. He explains, “tactically, with TTP having no permanent presence in the areas where there are spikes in attacks, the absence of American drones, which were previously employed to kill almost the entire top leadership of the group, is also a key tactical factor limiting the viability of such an operation.”

When an operation was proposed recently in an area in Lower Waziristan, the residents resisted. “We held a jirga with the government and we don’t think we need to vacate the area. We have already suffered once,” a tribal elder told TNS.

While peace talks with the TTP have been portrayed as an initiative of the PTI government, the NSC statement used the word “regime” blaming the entire system for bringing back the TTP and raising them to power once again. Given the divergence in political narratives, the local population is hard to be persuaded of the necessity of proposed actions.

“The presence of TTP leadership across the border in Afghanistan also makes it very difficult to launch an operation. It will be difficult to guarantee a substantial improvement. Instead, it is more likely to cause more suffering in terms of displacement, damage to commercial and residential property and restrictions on movement. This could further fuel anti-state sentiments,” Ihsan Tipu concludes.

While delaying or holding elections might seem to have legal and political implications, the deteriorating law and order threaten the very security of the country. If a decision having the support of most people and all political parties is not made soon, the writing on the wall is clear. The security challenge might become bigger than the election debate.

The writer is the editor of The Khorasan Diary. He can be reached on Twitter @iftikharfirdous