ope is understood as “the belief in the probability of the possible rather than the necessity of the probable”. In Pakistan’s case, particularly given the events that transpired over the last year, the state’s global alienation is worrying. As we enter a new year, a re-entry into global affairs is essential to inspire hope.

A fight is virtually lost when those engaged in it lose hope. Whilst keeping our hope alive, Pakistanis have many fears to contend with. Fear is seen as the path to the dark side, generally leading to anger, hate and culminating in suffering. But then Henry Ford said something very perceptive, “One of the biggest discoveries man makes, one of his great surprises, is to find he can do what he was afraid he couldn’t do.”

Thus, fear is conquerable, but it has something positive to offer as well; it makes people circumspect and cautious while making vital decisions. It also encourages thoroughness in policy makers, and allows a leadership to identify factors causing fear and ways to rein them in. This is a very simplistic prognosis of the blighted state that the Pakistani people usually find themselves in, but it is doable. Hope and fear go hand in hand even though the impulses responsible for their constitution are antithetical to each other.

Concerns and fears regarding the state of Pakistan are multi-faceted: the economic meltdown is likely to go unabated during 2023; no effective solution to the energy crisis and the resultant price hike is apparent; and several state institutions have ceased to be autonomous.

The rule of law seems to be a distant dream. Violations of human rights in 2022 do not inspire the confidence that this will not be the case in 2023. Freedom of expression provides hope for the people, especially the most vulnerable and inculcates fear and discomfort among those aligning with the status quo. Currently, many means of expression are gagged. These features make our system fearsome.

How can we keep our hopes alive in such dismal and distraught a situation and endeavour to see that our hopes and dreams have their realisation? That indeed is a crucial question to mull over. With state institutions falling apart, the role of the leadership assumes a greater significance.

But do we have the kind of leaders we need in the circumstances? Are they ready to embrace the mission and represent a middle class and meritocratic ethos? Such leaders must not adhere to medieval practices like personal loyalty, nepotism and an impulse to assert superiority of the few.

Our fears for the next year are compounded while ruminating over these questions. Pakistani politics is, unfortunately, predicated on the principles of medievality, mainly dynasticity and nepotism. The big challenge that emerges out of such a situation is an utter lack of correspondence between the ‘political’ and the ‘social’. The latter exists in an era of the (post-) modern whereas our style of politics is medieval. That also includes an inability to differentiate what belongs to the public and what is strictly owned by the ruling elite. We are up against a socio-political dichotomy that has engendered social chaos, uncertainty and alienation among the citizenry.

One shudders to think that if the same structures and a similar mentality keep calling the shots, then our ‘fears’ will tend to outweigh ‘hope’. The big problem with our politician is a lack of vision with respect to Pakistan. Pakistan is virtually facing a trauma emanating from the phenomenon called ‘the death of ideology’.

A pattern that is likely to continue in the next year is the way our decision-makers run the economy. The super simplistic way to keep our economy afloat is to either beg or borrow. 75 years after independence, our rulers have yet to learn how to profitably utilise local resources.

Managing to persuade international donor agencies to grant a big loan is deemed something laudable. At best, Pakistan’s strategic importance is cashed in. Our manufacturing sector is neglected even by some who claim that they have all it takes to run a national economy. Sadly, no eyebrows are raised over crimes like smuggling and money laundering.

In the absence of drastic reforms, it is too much to hope that such crimes will not be perpetrated over the next year. The situation calls for the supremacy of law and the constitution to be ensured. Every institution of the state is expected to function within constitutional limits. If that happens and is seen happening, it will certainly inspire hope.

The worst fear hanging over Pakistan is the possibility of violence orchestrated by militant groups like the Tehreek-i-Taliban. The signs are indeed ominous. In a scenario dominated by uncertainty and apprehension, foreign policy should be handed back into civilian hands trained in the subtle art of diplomacy.

The element of geography must be factored in while formulating Pakistan’s foreign policy. More so, Pakistan’s politics should move towards plurality. For that, civilian supremacy is a precondition. Civilian leadership means business and politics is underpinned by a strong sense of morality.

Despite all sorts of odds pitted against us, young people (and in Pakistan more than two third of them are below thirty) with a wealth of verve and gusto teeming in them, have an almost biological destiny to be hopeful.

I leave you with an insightful saying of Stephen Ambrose, “The past is a source of knowledge, and the future is a source of hope, love of the past implies faith in the future.”

The writer is Professor in the faculty of Liberal Arts at the Beaconhouse National University, Lahore.  He can be reached at tahir.kamran@bnu.edu.pk