akistan Tehreek-i-Insaf chairman Imran Khan is facing a serious threat of political isolation following his disqualification in the wake of the recently decided Toshakhana (Gift Repository) case. Other cases, including foreign funding and contempt of court, also amount to hanging swords for Imran Khan’s political career. To avoid legal action against him, Khan is trying to demonstrate his street power. This could take the form of the recently-announced long march and other public rallies. Only time will tell what impact this decision has on Khan’s popularity and his controversial narrative. But one thing that can be foreseen is that this decision has the potential to pave the way for the return of the Pakistan Muslim League supremo Mian Nawaz Sharif from the UK.

The Election Commission of Pakistan announced its verdict on the Toshakhana case on October 21, creating another storm on the political horizon. Another controver­­sy followed after an unsigned copy of the order was released. The ECP disowned the unsigned document. However, it released a notification on October 24 about the de-notification of PTI chief Imran Khan as a member of the National Assembly.

Some people might say that the ECP acted smartly. It de-seated Khan from his Mianwali constituency besides disqualifying him temporarily. The ECP also referred the case for initiating criminal proceedings against him. Once the criminal proceedings reach a conclusion, he might be disqualified for not being sadiq and ameen.

Imran Khan and the PTI reacted to the ECP ruling soon after a short order was announced. Some PTI activists blocked several main roads and squares across Pakistan. However, within a few hours Khan directed them to end the protests and promised that he would give a call for the long march on Friday.

Most PTI leaders described the election commission’s decision as a biased one. Some even said it appeared to be “penned by Nawaz Sharif”.

After the decision, Khan’s lawyers filed a petition in the Islamabad High Court and sought a stay order against it. Chief Justice Athar Minallah refused to entertain the request on the grounds that no petition can be entertained without certified copies of the orders it challenges. When Khan’s counsel said that he wished to contest a National Assembly constituency from Kurram, KP, the CJ replied that “The ECP has not barred Imran Khan from contesting elections from Kurram. You can go and participate.”

Imran Khan now faces the threat of disqualification in several cases for which a foundation has been laid by the ECP’s decision in the Toshakhana case. The obvious charge against him is that he did not declare the list of gifts and their prices. If criminal proceedings are initiated against him and he is convicted, he might be disqualified for at least five years. 

On the other hand, Imran Khan has started working on a Plan B and has spent hectic days in Lahore and other districts of the Punjab to finalise arrangements for his long march. Initially, he had told his supporters that he would make the announcement on Friday.

PTI insiders revealed to The News on Sunday that the original date for the march was November 4. However, in the wake of senior journalist Arshad Sharif’s death in Nairobi, he announced the march on Tuesday night. He will reach Islamabad on November 4 now.

Another threat Khan faces is the proceedings of the contempt of court case against him in the Supreme Court. The case is linked to his May 25 long march this year, when defying the SC’s directions, he entered the Red Zone. The PTI activists not only entered the prohibited area but also set a number of trees on fire and clashed with the police.

When the federal government sought contempt of court proceedings again Khan, Chief Justice of Pakistan Omar Ata Bandial initially remarked, “It might be that the SC’s directions did not reach Imran Khan.” Later, when several agencies reported that the orders were conveyed to Khan but he defied them, the SC initiated regular proceedings against him and sought his reply.

Khan now faces the disqualification threat in several cases, a foundation for which has been laid by the ECP’s decision in the Toshakhana case. The obvious charge against him is that he did not declare the list of gifts and their prices. If criminal proceedings are initiated against him and he is convicted, he might be disqualified for at least five years.

However, if the proceedings are not initiated or he is not convicted, it will give another chance to Nawaz Sharif who was also convicted for not declaring a salary he was supposed to get from his son Hussain Nawaz’s firm. He has already served a year in prison. His disqualification for life may also be nullified as during hearings in the Faisal Vawda case, the CJP remarked that disqualification for life was not justified.

Maryam Nawaz and her spouse Safdar have already been exonerated in the Avenfield case. This indicates that Nawaz Sharif’s appeal, pending in the SC, might be entertained on the same grounds and his conviction overturned.

In short, while the ECP’s verdict may not be fatal to Imran Khan’s career it might, to a significant extent, benefit Nawaz Sharif.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism and analyst