nflation can be defined as the rise in the prices of goods in a country that reduces the purchasing power of its citizens. Inflation is never altogether absent from any economy, it keeps on fluctuating. However, when prices rise uncontrollably and the government can’t do anything about it, there is an inflation crisis.

Since the beginning of 2022, food price inflation has emerged as a major economic and humanitarian challenge for Pakistan. It has significantly impacted economic growth and reduced the purchasing power of most citizens. The nation’s food prices are being driven mostly by the rising exchange rate and oil prices. Inflation has been further boosted by the ongoing wheat flour and sugar crises brought on by inefficient management and corruption, enabling people to stockpile food and sell it at higher prices later on.

Food prices matter not only because they are an important part of most consumers’ consumption baskets, but also because persistent levels of food inflation can lead to higher inflation expectations and eventually contribute to an upward inflation spiral. How people believe prices are going to behave in the future plays an important role. Workers who expect to face higher prices for the products they buy, might demand higher wages, which leads to increased production costs and higher product prices.

“Due to rising inflation, even affording the basic necessities of life has become very difficult. My family and I can barely afford to eat. I get paid Rs 600 a day which is not enough to provide for the six people in my household. In order to cut costs, we have had to halve the amount of food that we consume as well as look for ingredients that are cheaper than those that we bought before the prices rose” says Waseem Sabri, a labourer at a multi-million rupee real-estate project.

The increase in inflation has worsened malnutrition problems and lowered the standards of living, both of which give rise to health-related issues. According to the Global Hunger Index, Pakistan ranked 92^nd out of 116 countries before the flood. This shows that hunger was a serious problem in the country even before a significant part of its crops and farmland were destroyed. Food inflation in Pakistan is in the double digits for the second straight year. It has eroded the purchasing power of people, which is why with the same income level, they can no longer purchase the same goods.

The World Food Programme (WFP) reports that over three million people in the country are experiencing severe food insecurity, mainly in the flood-affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh. Over half a million people in these provinces are described to be facing emergency conditions. The situation has only worsened due to Pakistan’s balance of payments crisis. As the economy has stagnated, the rate of unemployment and poverty has risen.

According to the Global Hunger Index, Pakistan ranked 92nd out of 116 countries before the flood, which shows hunger was a serious problem in the country even before a significant part of its crops and farmland were destroyed.

The worst affected are the poorest segment of the population, who are more likely to be wage labourers and peasants. “We have this idea that there is a single inflation number that affects us all. That just isn’t true. Different people of different income quotas suffer differently due to inflation. High inflation tends to worsen inequality or poverty because it hits income and savings harder for poorer or middle-income households. In Pakistan’s case unskilled labour, farmers and those impacted by the floods, are suffering from starvation, loss of shelter, and many different kinds of diseases.” says economist Harris Zaidi.

Reasons behind high food inflation

1. Currency devaluation: The depreciation of the Pakistani rupee is a significant factor behind rising food inflation in the country. Political instability over the past few months has heavily impacted the currency valuation, causing it to freefall. Consumers of imported goods such as cooking oil and lentils face price hikes as a result of the devaluation.

2. Increased costs of production: The cost of producing agricultural commodities has been impacted due to the rise in prices of essential inputs to agriculture which are imported, such as seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, agricultural machinery and transportation. The price of inputs impacts the prices of finished products. Due to inadequate production of fertilisers in the country, the government has to import DAP fertilisers at high rates. The shortage of fertiliser affected crop production which also contributed to price hikes. Operating tube wells requires diesel oil. Similarly, agricultural machinery requires fuel and due to the skyrocketing price of fuel, the cost of production is significantly affected. As the cost of production increases, so does food inflation.

3. Climate change: The rising temperatures associated with global climate change have affected the average production of Pakistan’s staple food crop; wheat. Due to the heat wave earlier in the year, there was a comparatively lower yield than previous years. This led to an increase in inflation as there was a shortage of wheat. Heavy rains and flooding in many parts of Pakistan have damaged thousands of acres of farmland, destroying crop yields and contributing to food insecurity in the country. Heavy rains have damaged cotton, dates, chilies and the production of various kinds of vegetables.

What is the

government planning to do?

As the water recedes in some parts of Pakistan following the monsoon flooding, affected communities face a daunting new challenge; how to survive the approaching winter with high inflation rates and a shortage of food. Described by the prime minister as “a climate disaster,” this year’s fatal and unprecedented floods have raised serious questions about our preparedness.

According to preliminary estimates, 65 percent of Pakistan’s main food crops including 70 percent of its rice have been affected by the floods and 3 million livestock have died. The planning minister says that 45 percent of the cropped land has been affected. Less than 40 percent of Pakistan’s land areais arable.

“This, along with the huge number of fallen and dead livestock, means Pakistan is facing a monumental hunger crisis. However, the relevant authorities are collaborating with local parties as well as international communities in order to aid those in need”, says an official at the Ministry of National Food Security and Research.

The authorities suggest that they are gravely concerned about the long-term health and nutritional impacts of the crisis and expect disease and malnutrition rates to rise. Many communitiesin rural Sindh and Balochistan are suffering from prevalence of waterborne diseases.

The World Food Programme (WFP) is working with the National Disaster Management Authority and other partners to expand food assistance. The government, which has declared a national emergency, is trying to efficiently coordinate humanitarian relief.

The writer is a  freelance journalist