How damaging is IK’s audio leak before Azadi march?

The latest alleged audios of former Prime Minister Imran Khan have leaked at a time when the stage is set for the final “showdown” between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). Imran Khan is about to give the final call for “Azadi March”, while the Federal Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah has warned him of dire consequences if it enters Islamabad.

The audio leak, the third in the leak series, linked to Imran Khan and his colleagues, while the other two related to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has created quite a stir in political circles. While the previous alleged audio dealt with cipher, this one, if true, also coincided with the same period – the vote of no-confidence against Imran Khan – and linked with alleged “horse-trading”. It was the same period – between March 8 and April 9 – during which PTI lost its coalition partners like Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), some of PMLQ MNAs and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM-Pakistan).

Irrespective of the alleged audio conversation, the fact remains Imran and his team tried their best to defeat the vote. After the MQM’s decision to leave the former Prime Minister, Imran lost hope of defeating them and came hard on what he alleged was the role of the neutrals. He attacked former President Asif Zardari for allegedly purchasing his party’s as well as allies’ MNAs. In the last few weeks, three audios were linked with PTI, former Finance Minister Shaukat Tareen in regard to IMF, Imran’s conversation with his ex-Principal Secretary Azam Khan beside a few other PTI leaders in regard to cipher. Now, the latest is linked to the events before the vote of no-confidence was carried out.

Until and unless any proper forensic and independent investigation authenticates all these audios, it may not cause much damage to the followers of both sides in this highly polarised political atmosphere. Some serious questions were raised by the PTI over the audio leaks of PM Shehbaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz, which the opposition questioned and even filed a petition in the Supreme Court. The former prime minister is determined to bowl his much-awaited “last over” as he himself claimed that through his “in-swing yorkers” he would bowl his opponents. But, Federal Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah said his team is ready to face and added, “is he ready”? In all probability, the ground is set for what many believe is a possible showdown or in other words confrontation.

Imran Khan has prepared his followers for what he termed “Jihad” and has even taken “oath” from thousands of his party workers, something which sounds quite dangerous. It clearly indicates that he is planning to go all out. Some say he may give his call in the next two or three days, while others believe he could withhold it in case of any related political developments. Imran apparently looked in a defiant mood as far as the Election Commission of Pakistan is concerned after his failure to force Chief Election Commissioner to resign. Surprisingly, his legal team withdrew a reference against CEC with an excuse that it would be filed later. But, to this day they have not filed it. However, Imran Khan has announced he would not appear before ECP on the repeated show-cause notices issued to him. The ECP’s decision on the “Toshakhana” case, which was reserved two weeks back, has not been announced yet. The ECP awaits PTI’s reply on the show cause in the foreign-funding case. Sources said PTI lawyers have now prepared the reply and it would be filed. There is no doubt as far as Imran Khan’s popular base is concerned. But, in the last six months since he was ousted he has not been able to get any of his demands –fresh elections, the resignation of the ECP Chairman, deferment of appointment of new Army Chief till the next government, right to overseas Pakistanis and elections through the electronic voting machine – accepted.

His last call on May 25 almost backfired because of the use of state machinery and because of not getting the kind of response he was expecting. Now, with party governments in Punjab and KP on the one hand, and Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan on the other, Imran Khan is confident of success this time. In the fast-developing political situation, Imran Khan’s possible plan for the march may coincide with nine by-elections on Oct. 16 in which he himself is a candidate. On Thursday, PTI received a setback on its petition in regard to the resignation of its MNAs at Islamabad High Court, and all is now set for elections which had been postponed earlier. Secondly, local bodies elections in Karachi, which have been delayed for the last two years, are finally scheduled for Oct 23 after the Election Commission of Pakistan rejected the Sindh government’s plea for three months postponement in the light of the flood situation in interior Sindh. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto, in his press conference on Thursday, expressed serious reservations over the LB polls under the circumstances, but in the end said, ”his government would follow the directives of the ECP”. The opposition parties in Sindh, including PTI and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), criticise PPP and Sindh government for using “Sillab-card” (Flood card) to postpone polls in Karachi as it fears defeat. These polls, particularly the LB elections, are crucial for PTI which has won 16 NA seats. The last LB polls were held in 2016 in which MQM-Pakistan succeeded in getting its Mayor Waseem Akhtar elected.

The question is would Imran ignore these important factors and give the call in between or wait for the outcome of these polls? A source close to Imran said, ”none of us knows what date is in his mind, but party leaders and the core committee had discussed all this in detail. Now, it is his decision and discretion what date he thinks would be right.” On the other hand, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah have taken the government’s coalition partners into confidence for their final onslaught if the situation goes out of control. Reports suggest Islamabad would be fully sealed for all practical purposes and security around Red Zone and Embassy Enclave would be handed to the Army under Article 245 of the Constitution. The federal government has not ruled out the possibility of imposing the governor’s rule, though some of its allies advised them not to go to that extent because of the constitutional hitch. The Pakistan Democratic Movement, a coalition of 11 parties, also showed a lack of interest in the by-elections on nine NA seats, two of which are in Karachi, one in KP and the rest in Punjab besides the LB polls in Karachi.

PMLN key leader and party Vice-President Maryam Nawaz, who led the campaign in the last by-elections on 20 MPAs seats, which the party lost and could secure only five, has gone to London after being acquitted by IHC in NAB reference of Ramzan Sugar Mill to meet her father and former PM Nawaz Sharif and for her own medical treatment.

In all probability, the political temperature would rise and could take any turn at a time when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will take the all-important decision of appointment of new Army Chief. General Qamar Javed Bajwa had hinted in an informal talk during his US visit he would not be seeking any further extension and going to retire in November.

The writer is a columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO