NTDC plans 36,292MW generation in 10 years

ISLAMABAD: The National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) has sought approval from the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) for its proposed 10-year Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2022-31.

The plan proposes incorporation of 36,292 MW electricity to the national grid during the period. Pakistan’s demand for electricity increases with the growth in GDP. During the fiscal year 2021-22, the country witnessed 5.97 percent GDP growth, whereas, the agriculture sector grew 4.4 percent, industrial sector 7.2 percent, and the commercial/services sector 6.2 percent.

The growth in various sectors also stipulated the growth in electricity generation to 7.07 percent. As of June 2022, the total installed generation capacity of NTDC system recorded as 37,949 MW with 34 percent contribution by RE and 66 percent by thermal projects.

RE comprises hydro, solar PV, wind and bagasse-based technologies while thermal projects include local gas, local coal, imported coal, residual fuel oil (RFO), RLNG, and nuclear-based technologies.

Similarly, K-Electric’s total installed capacity recorded as 3,319 MW, including 97 percent from thermal projects and 3 percent from renewables comprising solar photovoltaic. NTDC has prepared expansion plan that encapsulates power generation additions required to meet the future energy and power demand of the country, including NTDC and K-Electric systems.

It presents the results of the generation capacity expansion planning study, which is composed of two key processes - load forecast and generation capacity expansion and despatch optimization.

The key objective is to develop the least cost, 10-year indicative generation expansion plan for the country to meet the load and energy demand in a reliable and sustainable manner while maximizing the use of indigenous resources for energy security.

NEPRA will review and approve the proposed expansion plan during a public hearing on Oct 19, 2022. NTDC has proposed three different GDP growth-based scenarios and their respective electricity demands for the next decade.

In a normal GDP growth scenario by 2030-31, electricity peak demand is estimated as 41,338 MWs (NTDC 38,179 MW and KE 5,568MW). In low growth scenario, the peak demand is expected as 38,744 MWs (NTDC 345,836 MW and KE 5,166 MW), while in high scenario the peak demand rising to 44,668 MWs (NTDC 41,272MW and KE 5,998 MW).

While forecasting these scenarios, the retirement of existing thermal power projects including GENCOs is also considered as per the expiry of their contractual term of the corresponding power purchase agreement (PPA) and the relevant cabinet committee on energy (CCoE) decisions. Till the expiry of the contractual term of corresponding PPA and GSA, existing RLNG and imported coal-based projects have been given a minimum despatch as per contractual obligations. Besides, 480 MW of net metering is considered each year till the end of the study horizon.

Minimum Despatch of 500 MW from existing KAPCO CCPP (Block-I and Block-II) in the months of May to September up till the year 2025 has been considered, beyond its PPA expiry -Oct 2022, owing to network requirements/constraints, whereas, the remaining capacity (Block-III) has been retired as per PPA expiry.

A significant quantum of 7,339 MW of the existing thermal power projects is scheduled to be retired from the NTDC system and 682 MW from the K-Electric system during the planning horizon of the IGCEP 2022-31.

Major retirement of generation capacity for the IGCEP 2022-31 corresponds to RFO-based power projects, followed by local gas and then RLNG-based power projects.

Seven RFO-based plants are to retire next year with a total capacity of 2020MW for which the Cabinet Committee of Energy (CCoE) has given its approval. These plants include Guddu-II U (5-10) (620MW), Jamshoro-I U1 (250MW), Jamshoro-II U4 (200MW), Muzaffargarh-I U1 (210MW), Muzaffargarh-I U2 (210MW), Muzaffargarh-I U3 (210MW) and Muzaffargarh-II U4 (320MW).

LNG-based KAPCO 3 (300Mw) will retire in 2023, while KAPCO-1 (400MW) and KAPCO-2 (900MW) will retire in 2024.

For these plants, the power purchase agreements (PPA) have been extended due to network constraints. A sensitivity analysis to assess the requirement of existing KAPCO CCPP beyond its PPA expiry, in years to come will be conducted in the ongoing Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP).

However, considering the historical dispatch of KAPCO owing to network constraints in the region, two blocks of KAPCO have been assumed to stay in the system up till the year 2026.

A total of 682 MW of capacity is going to vanish from the KE system in the coming years due to retiring of power plants, including Gul Ahmed Energy Ltd (GAEL) 136MW and TPL (126 MW). Interestingly, a five-dozen 14,159MW committed renewable energy projects will be executed in 10 years.

In the year 2022-23, the installed capacity of the whole country from all generation sources is likely to be around 43,259 MW as against the demand of 28,425 MW. However, it is estimated that the installed capacity in 2030-31 will be 69,372 MW as against the demand of 41,338 MW. As much as 61 percent energy will be generated through RE sources and the remaining 39 percent from conventional thermal sources.