Emerging political scenario

In the wake of fast-changing political developments, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and would-be Finance Minister Ishaq Dar have taken some important decisions regarding political happenings in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan has once again withheld his call for much-awaited long march to Islamabad and instead hinted at returning to the National Assembly if a high-level judicial commission probe be ordered on the alleged “US cipher”.

It appears if all goes well the role of Ishaq Dar would be more than a finance minister and may act like a Deputy Prime Minister. But, after returning to Pakistan, he has to clear himself from the court and return to Senate before replacing discredited Finance Minister Miftah Ismail. Though Miftah would continue working in the finance team of the government, he will most likely go on leave after sometime.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in all probability will take a backseat. And if Dar finally returns and is cleared, he would also play a political role as key adviser to Nawaz Sharif. Sources also disclosed the return of Dar is the first step towards possible return of Nawaz Sharif who has been in London for the past three years since he was allowed to go on “medical grounds” during the government of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

This also means Shehbaz Sharif’s son Hamza Shahbaz may not be the candidate for Punjab CM slot if the PMLN-led Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) succeeded in ousting the PTI-PMLQ Chief Minister Ch Pervaiz Elahi.

Sources said Premier Shehbaz Shahbaz and former Premier held a one-on-one meeting on the “key appointment” which would be announced in due course. The two also discussed reports about “backdoor contacts” between their arch rival – ex-Premier Imran Khan – and power that be and watching the developments closely.

On the other hand, Imran Khan has lashed out at these developments and blasted those responsible for giving what he termed “NRO” to Sharifs and Zardari. But surprisingly, he withheld his much-awaited decision about the long march to Islamabad.

Imran Khan early this week had announced “Azadi march” to oust the present government from Saturday. But, like in Gujranwala, he withheld the call at Rahimyar Khan. There are reports he has deferred the march call for some time and would continue addressing public meetings.

While PTI leaders termed the move as a last-ditch effort from their leader to avoid confrontation, IK’s opponents believed it was yet another U-turn, sensing no-win situation for him in case of any confrontation.

IK’s conditional return move has come just a few days after Chief Justice of Pakistan Justice Umer Ata Bandial, while hearing a petition moved by the PTI regarding its MNAs’ resignation, suggested that it is better if they go back to the National Assembly and play their constructive role. PTI leaders believe they would not accept any probe ordered by the government regarding “US cipher”. But, if the Chief Justice of Pakistan constituted any judicial commission, they would accept its report and also hinted at returning to the National Assembly.

Political observers say it seems a tug of war has started between the PDM-led coalition government and the PTI, which is likely to intensify in the coming days and weeks. This scribe has learnt from reliable sources that former Prime Minister Imran Khan could go all-out to stop Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif from making certain important appointments.

President Arif Alvi on Sunday suggested a formula and asked for consensus on the appointment of the new Army Chief, something which legal experts believe would be unconstitutional as it’s a Prime Minister’s sole prerogative.

President Alvi, whose efforts so far have failed to bring government and opposition across the table, also received a setback when an important meeting he arranged at the President House between Imran Khan and the most powerful person in Pakistan could not materialise.

Now, all eyes are on some upcoming political and judicial developments as a number of cases related to Ishaq Dar, Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz are likely to be taken up. Nawaz Sharif, through Ishaq Dar, has taken the front seat and has asked Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to “wait” before taking key decision.

The writer is a columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang

Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO