‘Plus-Minus’ formula in politics

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan fears certain political and non-political characters are after him because of his rising popularity and want to “minus him” from the political scene through possible disqualification.

How genuine his fear is and what strategy he has in his mind to counter it is a question. On Saturday, he again deferred his protest call which his followers were expecting in his public meeting at Gujranwala.

What would be the ultimate political scenario if he is disqualified, as historically such an exercise in the past has failed? Imran Khan is currently facing a number of cases, including a contempt of court case in the Islamabad High Court for his alleged derogatory remarks against a woman judge. He has put himself in a difficult situation by not submitting an unconditional apology and will now face the formal charge on September 22.

Even a minor conviction here could lead to his disqualification. His legal team has advised him to tender an apology in writing and let the 5-member bench decide as per procedure. The other case in which Imran is confident and believes he committed no offence, but some legal experts say he may fall in trouble, is that of “Toshakhana” where he is facing a charge of not declaring the same in his tax returns. This, if proven against him, may lead to his disqualification.

The third trial which everyone is watching quite closely is that of “foreign funding” case. The legal experts, however, are divided on whether it could lead to his disqualification or not. It may not be easy for the government to establish that the case is that of a foreign-aided party rather foreign-funded. Perhaps, that is why the government has not yet filed a reference before the Supreme Court against Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) nor issued a declaration to ban it yet.

The former Prime Minister has also taken a direct bout with Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), particularly against the Chief Election Commissioner. Despite facing contempt case before him, Imran once again used abusive language against him.

Imran Khan, who in the past was declared “Sadiq aur Ameen” in one of the cases against him by the Supreme Court, has now practically opened all the fronts after his ouster through vote of no-confidence on April 10 this year.

He first attacked the superior judiciary after the SC opened at midnight and declared the ruling of the Deputy Speaker against the vote of no-confidence motion as illegal and unconstitutional. Later, another bench of the superior court opened near midnight in Lahore and provided relief to the PTI-PMLQ alliance.

Situation went in Imran and PTI’s favour when 20 MPAs, which had switched loyalties from PTI and voted for Hamza Shahbaz in CM election, were declared disqualified. Yet, the PTI-PMLQ alliance swept by-polls as they won 15 out of 20 seats which led to the return of their government and Ch Pervaiz Elahi became the CM.

Imran Khan fears some forces which were also behind the vote of no-confidence beside the United States now want him out from the political scene as well by creating a split in his party. He says they are also trying to dislodge his Punjab government.

As mentioned above “Minus-I” formula in the past has never succeeded, but was tried which left far-reaching political impact on the system starting with the case of “judicial murder” of former Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. He was hanged when his popularity was all-time high and General Zia had to postpone the elections in October, 1977.

“Minus-1” was first applied when Gen Zia announced elections on non-party basis. The first formal “Minus-Political Parties” Parliament was established in 1985. Since the purpose was only to keep Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) out, Zia’s regime formed his own party called Pakistan Muslim League (PML) after the elections and Mohammad Khan Junejo was elected as PM.

But, Junejo himself lifted a ban on politics and civil liberties which led to the return of Benazir Bhutto. She was received by nearly half a million people at Lahore. Thus, the minus-PPP formula failed.

Benazir’s first two governments were not allowed to complete tenure and attempts like IJI and Mehran Bank were made to make her unpopular. Her government’s bad governance also contributed. But, the fact remains she was not allowed to continue after she defeated a vote of no-confidence move.

Same happened in the case of Nawaz Sharif when after the “Minus-Junejo” formula he became the head of PML. In 1997, his party got two-thirds majority, but on Oct 12, 1999 his government was overthrown through a non-Martial Law military takeover and General (retd) Pervez Musharraf first became the Chief Executive and then President of Pakistan as well as Army Chief.

Since Musharraf wanted both Benazir and Nawaz out before the 2002 general elections, he created a split in PPP and PMLN. This formula, however, too could not last as both BB and MNS got united and signed the Charter of Democracy. In combined with lawyers’ movement, these leaders created a situation which first resulted in Musharraf’s stepping down as Army Chief and later as President in 2008 but not before the tragedy of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination on December 27, 2007. Both the parties returned to power in 2008 and 2013.

In 2016, PMLN leader Nawaz Sharif faced “disqualification” in the Panama case, and a year later was convicted too and was practically “minus”. But, his popularity remained intact and his party emerged second largest in the 2018 elections.

When in 2018 Imran Khan became the Prime Minister, his government relatively had a much better relationship with the Establishment till October 2021, and in his first three years he foiled all the attempts by the then opposition. He was backed by the Establishment without which he would not have been able to form the government. But, the controversy over the transfer of the former ISI DG went too far.

In April 2010, his government lost the vote of no-confidence. He blamed the United Stated, his political opponents and the “neutrals” for his ouster. Since then, he has been on the street and has made several attempts to dislodge the PDM government, but so far failed to force them to hold fresh elections.

Imran Khan in the last five months held huge public meetings and is arguably the most popular leader in the country. Can he be disqualified which he fears? Can politics remain the same in the post-Imran period is a question all stakeholders need to address.

The writer is a columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO