After NA-245 result, coalition parties need collaborative effort to tackle Imran Khan in three Karachi by-polls

After the comfortable victory of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in the recent by-election in NA-245 Karachi District East against the joint candidate of the ruling political parties in the federal government, the ruling coalition comprising the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, Pakistan Peoples Party, Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl, Awami National Party and other parties seems not very confident in the by-elections in three other NA constituencies in the city scheduled for September 25 where the PTI has fielded its chairman Imran Khan.

The three constituencies of NA-237, NA-239 and NA-246 were selected by the federal government for the by-elections because the ruling coalition considered its position strong. The three constituencies of Karachi were among those constituencies that fell vacant after the National Assembly speaker accepted the resignations of a few of the PTI MNAs who resigned en masse when the PTI government was toppled in the Centre.

Political analysts say that resignations were accepted of MNAs of those constituencies, which the coalition parties thought to be easy to win in the by-polls. However, the PTI countered the move by announcing that Khan would contest all the by-elections himself. As PTI candidate Mahmood Baqi Maulvi won the NA-245 by-election on August 21 by securing more than double votes than the MQM-P candidate Moeed Anwar, the ruling alliance in the Centre wants to win the coming by-polls at all cost.

The ruling coalition in the Centre, however, has been facing several challenges to constitute an effective electoral front against the PTI chairman as its constituent parties have been traditional opponents. “The voters of the PPP and MQM-P find it difficult to vote for each other’s candidate. It is an unnatural alliance,” said journalist Munir Ahmed Shah.

The component parties of the ruling alliance have agreed to back the PPP candidates in the NA-237 Malir and NA-246 Lyari by-elections while the MQM-P candidate will be backed in the NA-239 by-poll.

The PPP has finalised its candidates for two constituencies. Nabil Gabol will be contesting the by-election against Khan in NA-246 Lyari and Abdul Hakim Baloch will be facing the PTI chairman in the NA-237 by-poll. Both of the PPP candidates have in the past won from the respective constituencies.

However, the MQM-P is yet to finalise its candidate for the NA-239 by-poll. The party sources told The News that MQM-P senior leaders Aamir Khan and Syed Nayyar Raza have filed nomination papers from NA-239 but it seems Raza, a former chairman of the District Korangi municipality, would be the final candidate.

However, the NA-246 would a difficult seat for the PPP as Nabil Gabol is considered a controversial candidate in Lyari.

In the 2018 general elections, the margin of the PTI’s victory in NA-246 was also large. Since Lyari has historically been a bastion of the PPP, the party had fielded its chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari from here, but in a major upset, PTI’s Abdul Shakoor Shad won the seat after securing 53,029 votes. Bilawal even could not be the runner-up as the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) secured the second highest votes with 42,377 voters favouring it. The PPP chairman came third after securing 39,347 votes.

However, the ruling parties believe that it was a one-off upset and the people of Lyari would not support the PTI again in large numbers in the by-poll.

In the 2013 general elections, PPP candidate Shahjahan Baloch won the Lyari NA seat with 84,530 votes. In the 2008 elections, Nabeel Gabol of the PPP clinched the seat after polling 84,217 votes.

The NA-239 was won by the PTI’s Muhammad Akram with 69,161 votes in the 2018 general elections. The runner up was the MQM-P’s Sohail Mansoor Khawaja who polled 68,811 votes. After losing from just 350 votes, Khawaja challenged the result in an election tribunal but could not succeed in changing the result in his favour.

The third position in the constituency in the 2018 polls went to the TLP’s Syed Zaman Ali who bagged 30,111 votes. The PML-N’s Muhammad Ehsan and the PPP’s Syed Imran Haider Abdi polled 19,617 and 11,887 respectively.

If the voters’ sympathies have not changed much, the combined power of the MQM-P, PPP and PML-N can result in the victory of the Muttahida candidate.

In the general elections of 2002, 2008 and 2013, the Korangi constituency was won by the MQM’s Iqbal Muhammad Ali. In the 2018 elections, he contested and won the adjoining constituency of Landhi.

The constituency of NA-237 which majorly covers Malir and its suburbs was secured by the PTI’s Jamil Ahmed Khan with 33,522 votes in the last general elections.

The runner up was the PPP’s Abdul Hakeem Baloch who polled 32,054 votes. The difference of votes between the winner and runner-up was 1,468.

The third position was grabbed by the MQM-P’s Dr Nadeem Maqbool with 14,264 votes while the PML-N’s Zain ul Abdin Ansari polled 14,230 votes. If the PML-N and MQM-P put their weight behind the PPP in the by-poll, the PPP will have an edge over the PTI.

In the recent by-poll in the NA-240 District Korangi, the constituency comprising Landhi that fell vacant after the death of MQM-P MNA Iqbal Muhammad Ali, the MQM-P and PPP fielded candidates against each other. The PML-N withdrew its candidate in favour of the PPP, whereas, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl, another party in the current coalition government, announced its support for the MQM-P.

Commenting on the coming by-polls, political journalist Zia Ur Rehman said the ruling parties in the federal government have so far failed to effectively counter the PTI narrative. He added that in order to win the by-elections, the PPP and MQM-P would have to provide a solid reason to convince the people to vote for them.