The Punjab soap opera

In the seemingly never-ending saga of who gets the CM chair in Punjab, the provincial assembly will once again vote in a CM today in a run-off election. Given the past few months, one is not entirely sure today will be the end of the drama that has been unfolding since April. One thing is for sure: Punjab needs a stable government, especially at a time of a national economic meltdown. The PTI’s CM candidate Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi has the required numbers to win the election after the PML-N was routed in the Punjab by-polls but – after an initial graceful acceptance of defeat – the PML-N has proceeded to signal via several statements by its leaders that it will not let go of its ‘Takht-e-Lahore’ that easily. Already, there have been allegations – and counter-allegations – of MPAs being ‘bought’ by both sides of the aisle. If the PML-N somehow manages to get some PTI candidates to abstain from voting, or to vote against Pervaiz Elahi, we will be in for even more chaos in a province that has largely stayed insulated from such upheavals over the years.

While political observers feel that the PML-N should exit Punjab gracefully than try to play dirty, there are strong voices within the party that are of the view that if Imran went against all odds to save his federal government before the vote of no-confidence, and did not damage his politics what’s stopping them from trying the same? For the PML-N, sans Punjab, having a government in the centre that will only be taking tough economic decisions, leading to more inflation and decreasing its political prospects in the next general elections will be a risk far too great. Punjab’s status as a king-maker province looms large on every party’s political strategy. By the PML-N’s calculations it seems: either they keep hanging on to the Punjab government or give up the centre as well. The problem is that this line of thinking is far away from ensuring political certainty. There is also the not-so-small matter of playing on Imran Khan’s pitch and expecting to come out unscathed like him. As probably one of the most successful populists we have seen, he has changed the rules of the game in his favour. Meanwhile, in the debate on going in for early elections, the economy features large and there are still questions over whether the IMF programme will stay unaffected if a caretaker setup were to be introduced in a few months.

The only way out, as the country’s economists come up with scenarios on threats of default, is for all parties to finally come to the table and agree on a set of rules to determine the future course of politics and the economy. If early elections are an inevitability, they will need a consensus on an electoral reforms framework, caretaker setup, and a charter of economy. As Punjab again tries to vote in a CM today, perhaps all elected representatives need to remember the bigger picture here: no one wins if Pakistan’s economy plunges any further.