Tackling the energy Vecna

The recent Netflix season of ‘Stranger Things’, a teen series where monsters from a parallel universe terrify the peace-loving citizens of Hawkins, has me on my toes.

In the latest season, a monster named Vecna has emerged. El, the protagonist, put him in the parallel universe a long time back, but her memory failed her, and she forgot all about Vecna. Vecna is dangerous and aims to wipe off Hawkins. Vecna reminds me of all our strange energy policies over the last couple of decades. The dependency on the dirtiest fossil fuel plants constantly burdens our import bill and the environment.

Being held hostage by IPPs, fluctuating global fuel/gas prices, and unable to craft an ambitious renewables strategy is comparable to allowing Vecna to live amongst us, looming and waiting to strike. If we do not act soon, these regressive policies and status quo, like Vecna’s threat to Hawkins, will further harm Pakistan.

The recent announcement by the government to come up with a comprehensive solar policy is a good yet concerning sign. It once again signals that a holistic view and a deeper understanding of Pakistan’s energy landscape are missing. Half-baked policies with superb soundbites will lead to the usual lackluster execution. This failed cycle can no longer sustain.

What we need is a comprehensive energy policy, of which, no doubt, solar energy must be a key player. Pakistan needs a mix that is calibrated to meet the demands of a young nation while keeping the cost low and alleviating current account burdens. It requires an all-encompassing energy strategy for a country with a power system with the highest transmission losses in the region and fast urbanizing cities.

On the climate front, remember that Pakistan currently emits less than one percent of global GHG emissions. Our immediate focus, given our energy needs, should be on adaptation and not entirely mitigation. This complex challenge requires thorough diagnostics across all energy-consuming sectors, understanding of all available clean energy tools, and leadership towards future-proof planning.

Just to put things in perspective, Pakistan’s solar capacity is a mere 1.04 per cent of the total national capacity (approximately 430MW, 0.4GW) compared with that of India’s solar capacity of 50GW, which has 116 times more capacity than Pakistan and 25 per cent more than Pakistan’s total electricity capacity.

India’s laser focus on its National Solar Mission, to reach 100GW capacity by the end of 2022, was a bold and ambitious plan led by a ministry focused on renewables, rooted in R&D investments, and focused on future building export potential. Even then, between April and the end of 2021, India imported $2.5 billion worth of solar panels. We barely manufacture any solar panels. Any future policy without a corresponding phased manufacturing vision for renewables will hurt as it will open the flood gates for imports - an unsustainable plan.

Solar power, like wind energy, inherently has intermittency issues, with solar capacity factors averaging 10-30 per cent, compared to nuclear power plants with a capacity factor of 90-95 per cent. The capacity factor is low for renewables, and intermittency is an issue for wind and solar because the sun does not shine, and the wind does not blow all the time. The intermittency issue may require expensive undertakings such as industrial scale or home batteries, which in many cases may increase the cost of electricity generated. Batteries, among other things, are also not manufactured in Pakistan and will have to be imported.

One alternative to tackle intermittency is to switch from our furnace oil-based plants to other ‘cleaner’ fossil fuel plants such as clean coal or natural gas. It is not ideal, but they have a less environmental impact and can supplement intermittency dips. Our old oil furnace-based refineries, which account for almost 19 per cent of our total thermal power capacity and need 30 per cent of imported oil, must be switched to cleaner fossil fuels and new supercritical plants.

We must ensure that we simultaneously utilize, develop, manufacture, and transition to clean technologies in transportation, industry, residential and commercial sectors. Pakistan’s growing transport sector requires approximately 59 per cent of our oil import bills. The cement industry of Pakistan uses massive amounts of coal, 8-12 million tons a year, which is approximately 30 per cent of our total coal import. Can we also develop a plan to offset this? Can we plan to use and transport Thar coal to supplement this need? What about better insulation material development for the residential sector that can impact energy consumption in our homes?

Wind also has immense potential; Pakistan’s Meteorological Department measures Pakistan’s coastal belt at Gharo-Keti Bandar and shows an exploitable potential of 50,000MW of electricity generation through wind turbines.

This endeavor is no easy task, but countries like China, our iron friend, have been exploring, understanding, investing, and leading in the strategic advantages of clean technologies. China’s rise to dominance in clean energy industries was not accidental but the result of strategic thinking, foresight, and aggressive government support for R&D and local manufacturing. They did not put all their eggs in one basket, nor should we.

To avoid creating another Vecna living in a parallel universe, we must look at the energy policy holistically. Renewables are a part of the solution, not the complete solution. We cannot afford to put a band-aid on a wound that needs stitching. We need an evidence-based, comprehensive energy policy that works on an ambitious, pragmatic, and future-proof energy policy that helps increase R&D for new tech, local manufacturing capacity, the proliferation of clean technologies amongst the masses, and future export potential.

The writer is a graduate of the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.